Initial Claims dropped down to 466,000 for the week ending 11/21, better than the expected decrease to 496,700, following a revised level of 501,000 from the previous week.  This is the first week since January 3rd where weekly filings fell below 500,000. The 4-week moving average was 496,500, a decrease of 16,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 513,000. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the prior week, ending on 11/14, was 5,423,000, a decrease of 190,000 from the preceding week's revised level. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate from the week ending on 11/14, was 4.1%, down by 0.2% from the prior week.

Personal Income for the month of October increased significantly, by $30.1 billion during the month, or by 0.2%, as was expected, and currently stands at the $12,142.9 billion seasonally adjusted level, following a 0.2% increase in September. Net of taxes, Disposable Personal Income increased by $45.7 billion, or 0.4 percent, in October, compared with an increase of $21.3 billion, or 0.2 percent in September. With the increase in incomes, Personal Consumption Expenditures increased by 0.7%, up $47.2 billion, to a seasonally adjusted annual flow of $10,166.7, better than the expected increase of 0.6%, after a decrease to the same effect in September, revised upward from an originally reported 0.5% decrease. With the increase in spending higher than the increase in income, the Personal Savings Rate decreased to 4.4% in October, from its September level of 4.6%.

Durable Orders decreased by 0.6%, $1.0 billion, during October to $166.2 billion, contrary to the expected increase of 0.6% gain, following a 2.0% increase in September and a 2.6% decrease in August. Machinery had the largest decrease, by 8.0%, $1.9 billion, to $21.8 billion, after two consecutive monthly increases. Over the past 12 months, Durable Orders have dropped by 23.0%.

Upcoming Releases
ISM Manufacturing Index (12/01 at 10:00 AM EST)
Construction Spending (12/01 at 10:00 AM EST)
Pending Home Sales (12/01 at 10:00 AM EST)
Fed’s Beige Book (12/02 at 2:00 PM EST)

GDP Preliminary Q3 Estimates show GDP increased by 2.8%, less than the expected 2.9% increase, following a 3.5% estimated increase in the advance Q3 estimate (today’s preliminary release is based on a more complete set of data), after contracting by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2009. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and exports. These gains were partly offset by a negative contribution from non- residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending.

Corporate profits increased $130.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $43.8 billion in the second quarter.  Current-production cash flow, the internal funds available to corporations for investment, increased $41.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $30.5 billion in the second.

Consumer Confidence increased to 49.5 in November from 48.7 in October.  Appraisal of present day conditions were unchanged, as the short-term outlook improved slightly and the labor market outlook became less pessimistic.

Upcoming Releases
Initial Claims (11/25 at 8:30 AM EST)
Disposable Personal Income (11/25 at 8:30 AM EST)
Crude Inventories (11/25 at 10:30 AM EST)
Core PCE Inflation (11/25 at 8:30 AM EST)

Initial Claims remained unchanged at 505,000 for the week ending 11/14, better than the expected decrease to 500,000, following a revised level of 532,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 514,000, a decrease of 6,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 520,500. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the prior week, ending on 11/07, was 5,611,000, a decrease of 39,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,650,000. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate from the week ending on 11/07, was 4.3 percent, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3 percent.

The Conference Boards’ Leading Indicators Index numbers are expected today at 10:00 AM EST. The index increased by 1.0% to 103.5% (2004=100) in September, better than the expected increase by 0.8%, after it had increased by 0.4% in August, revised downward from a reported 0.6% increase. This was the 6th consecutive monthly increase in the index, following a 20 month decrease since the July 2007 peak, with a trend reversal in the current upswing which began in April. The Coincident Indicators was unchanged in September at 99.9 (2004=100), following an increase of 0.1% in August. The Lagging Indicators decreased by 0.3% to 109.6 (2004=100). The leading indicators advancing and the coincident indicators ceasing to decline in the recent month insinuate a bottoming out.

Upcoming Releases
Existing Home Sales (11/23 at 10:00 AM EST)
Disposable Personal Income (11/24 at 8:30 AM EST)
Consumer Confidence (11/24 at 10:00 AM EST)
Exports (11/24 at 8:30 AM EST)

The Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in October, to an index value of 216.177 (1982- 84=100), more than the expected 0.2% increase, after increasing by 0.2 and 0.4% in August and September respectively. Over the year the CPI is down by 0.2%. The food index also increased by 0.1% over the month, bringing down the food index over the year by 0.6%, following a decline of 0.2% in September, the first decline in the index in 40 years. The energy index increased by 1.5% and is down by 14% over the year. Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be most volatile in terms of expenditure categories in a typical consumption bundle, the Core CPI increased once again by 0.2% over the month, and has advanced by 1.7% since September 2008.

Housing Starts in October decreased by 10.6% to an annual pace of 529,000, less than the expected 599,000 pace, from the revised 592,000 in September (originally reported at 590,000). Over the year the figure has declined by 30.7% from the October 2008 rate of 763,000. Building Permits declined by 4.0%, over the month to 552,000, less than the expected 598,000 level, following 575,000 permits annualized in September. Over the year, Building Permits fell by 24.3% from the 729,000 pace in October 2008.

Upcoming Releases
Initial Claims (11/19 at 8:30 AM EST)
Leading Indicators (11/19 at 10:00 AM EST)
Existing Home Sales (11/23 at 10:00 AM EST)

The Producer Price Index increased by 0.3% in October to 174.1 (1982=100). The index was expected to increase by 0.5%, following a 0.6% decline in September and a 1.7% rise in August. Over the year, the index has decreased by 1.9%. The index for energy goods and prices for consumer foods both rose by 1.6%. Excluding food and energy prices, Core PPI fell the second consecutive time, by 0.6% after a 0.1% decrease in the previous month.

Industrial Production increased by 0.1 percent in October to an index value of 98.6 (2002=100), lower than the expected increase of 0.4%. This follows a 0.6% increase in September, revised downward from an originally reported increase of 0.7%. Over the year, the industrial production index is down by 7.1%. Capacity Utilization was reported at 70.7%, an increase from the 70.5% level in September. In October 2008, Capacity Utilization was measured at 75.4%.

Upcoming Releases
CPI (11/18 at 8:30 AM EST)
Crude Inventories (11/18 at 10:30 AM EST)
Initial Claims (11/19 at 8:30 AM EST)

Retail Sales increased by 1.4% in October to $347.5 billion annualized, better than the expected increase of 0.9%, following a 2.3% decrease the previous month, revised downward from a 1.5% decrease. Over the past year, retail sales volume has reduced by 1.7%. Sales in automobiles increased by 7.4%, allaying concerns that households would curtail expenditure after the effect of government incentives had ended. Retail Sales excluding autos had increased by 0.2% in October following a 0.4% increase in September. Over the past year, retail sales excluding autos have declined by 2.6%.

Business Inventories are expected today at 10:00 AM EST. Business inventories fell by 1.5% in August to $1,311.4 billion, and are down 13.3% from August 2008 levels. The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August increased by 1% to $989.6 billion, seasonally adjusted, but is down 15.1% over the past year. The inventories/sales ratio is 1.33 at the end of August, compared to 1.30 a year ago.

Upcoming Releases
PPI (11/17 at 8:30 AM EST)
Industrial Production (11/17 at 9:15 AM EST)
Capacity Utilization (11/17 at 9:15 AM EST)

The Trade Deficit decreased to $36.5 billion in September from $30.8 billion in August.  September exports increased by $3.7 billion to $132.0 billion, offset by the increase in imports by $9.3 billion to $168.4 billion.  The Commerce Department provided the September figures of the trade balance of the U.S. relative to selected trading partners, in billions of dollars, with surpluses in Hong Kong ($1.9), Australia ($0.9), Singapore ($0.3), and Egypt ($0.3).  Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($22.1), OPEC ($7.9),the European Union ($5.5), Mexico ($4.6), Japan ($4.1), Venezuela ($2.0), Nigeria ($1.9), Canada ($1.5), Korea ($0.8), and Taiwan ($0.7).

Upcoming Releases
Retail Sales (11/16 at 8:30 AM EST)
Business Inventories (11/16 at 10:00 AM EST)
PPI (11/17 at 8:30 AM EST)
Industrial Production (11/17 at 9:15 AM EST)

Initial Claims decreased by 12,000 to 502,000 claims for the week ending 11/07, better than the expected decrease to 524,000, following a revised level of 532,000 from the previous week. The 4-week moving average was 519,750, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 524,250. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the prior week, ending on 10/31, was 5,631,000, a decrease of 139,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,770,000. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate from the week ending on 10/31, was 4.3 percent, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.4 percent.

Crude inventories are expected today at 10:30 AM EST.  Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week to 335.9 million barrels. Crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week ending October 30, 233 thousand barrels per day below the previous week's average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.1 million barrels per day last week, down 764 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

Upcoming Releases
Treasury Budget (11/12 at 2:00 PM EST)
Trade Balance (11/13 at 8:30 AM EST)
Retail Sales (11/16 at 8:30 AM EST)

The Unemployment Rate for October increased  by 0.4% to 10.2%, which is the largest monthly increase in the unemployment rate since April of 1983.  This release comes in more than the expected rate of 9.9%, following a level of 9.8% in September and 9.7% in August, as the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000 to 15.4 million.  Since the start of the recession in December of 2007, the number of unemployed persons increased by 8.2 million and the unemployment rate has grown by 5.3%.  Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 190,000, with more layoffs than expected (173,000), following a 219,000 decline in September, revised upward from a 263,000 decrease.  Over the month, the largest job losses occurred in construction, manufacturing, and retail trade.  The Average Workweek stood at 33 hours, and Average Hourly Earnings increased by 0.3% over the month.

Wholesale Inventories for September are scheduled for release today at 10:00 AM EST, and are expected to fall by 1% following a 1.3% decline in August, to $381.2 billion.  This figure gauges sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process, which may change the aggregate inventory profile that has influence on GDP forecast.  Wholesale Sales increased by 1.0% to $317.9 billion in August.

Upcoming Releases
Treasury Budget (11/12 at 2:00 PM EST)
Trade Balance (11/13 at 8:30 AM EST)
Initial Claims (11/12 at 8:30 AM EST)

Initial Claims decreased by 20,000 to 512,000 claims for the week ending 10/31, better than the expected decrease to 524,000, following a revised level of 532,000 from the previous week.  The 4-week moving average was 523,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s moving average.  Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment from the prior week, ending on 10/24, was 5,749,000, a decrease of 68,000 from the preceding week's revised level, maintaining the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate at 4.4%.  This release comes ahead of the October Unemployment Rate, which will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST, and is expected to increase to 9.9% from a reported 9.8% rate for September.

Upcoming Releases
Unemployment Rate (11/06 at 8:30 AM EST)
Nonfarm Payrolls (11/06 at 8:30 AM EST)
Wholesale Inventories (11/06 at 10:00 AM EST)
Treasury Budget (11/12 at 2:00 PM EST)