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Posted Wed Nov 18, 02:54 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
The operating environment in the hotels and lodging sector has continued to deteriorate in the last few quarters, and we expect hotel industry operating metrics to remain stretched in the near term. As the recession continues, both business and leisure travelers are cutting back on their trips.
However, with some early signs of economic recovery, we believe that hotel occupancy will improve in the fourth quarter of 2009 and in 2010. Though occupancy levels are expected to pick up, pricing pressures will continue as hotels will carry on offering heavily discounted rates to draw in travelers. As such, profits will remain cagey in this environment.
In evaluating hotel companies such as Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) and Marriott International Inc. (MAR) during this down cycle, we will be paying close attention to changes in average daily room rates as an indication of how quickly the sector may recover once the economy improves.
A key operating metric in the lodging industry is RevPAR (revenue per available room). This metric is derived by multiplying the occupancy percentage of a hotel over a given period by the average daily room rate (ADR) over that same period. Changes in either occupancy or ADR will impact RevPAR, but with different implications for bottom-line profitability.
Given the current state of the U.S. economy, it is no surprise that hotel occupancy percentages have been down. Some hotel owners have initiated to slash room rates in an attempt to fill beds. In most cases, this tactic will result in material long-term damage to the business, for two primary reasons:
First, increases in occupancy are accompanied by increases in operating expenses. For every room that is filled, there are additional costs such as housekeeping, laundry and utilities that must be paid. When room rates decline while variable operating expenses remain stable, margins are compressed. Changes in ADR, however, fall almost entirely to the bottom line.
Second, and more importantly, cuts to ADR are difficult to recoup when the operating environment eventually improves. After slashing room rates in an effort to fill a hotel, attempts to restore those rates to previous levels are likely to be met with significant resistance. As such, the ability to benefit from an improving economy will be delayed.
Ultimately, the ability of lodging companies to maintain room rates as much as possible should have a significant impact on their ability to weather the downturn. Cutting rates meaningfully should be an absolute last-ditch effort to survive, because changes in rate have the biggest impact on the bottom line and are the hardest to recoup when the operating environment improves. By keeping an eye on changes in ADR, investors can gain some insight to the companies that are best poised to benefit when economic growth rebounds.
OPPORTUNITIES
The beginning of the recovery for hotels is expected to be primarily demand driven as the economic recovery gains momentum. Also, with a stressed credit market, we expect a deceleration of lodging supply growth. Hence, with some early signs of economic recovery, we expect occupancy levels to increase in the rest of 2009 and 2010, driven by increasing demand and slowing supply growth. Though we expect RevPAR to decline modestly in the fourth quarter, we expect stability in 2010.
We also note that the year-over-year comparison in the fourth quarter of 2009 will be easier as the fourth quarter reflects the one-year anniversary of the abrupt decline in lodging demand that occurred during the fourth quarter of 2008.
When researching potential investments in the sector, however, we would advise investors to pay close attention to the ADR reported by lodging companies. We expect that companies that are best able to maintain room rates through the downturn will be the best positioned to capitalize once economic conditions do improve.
We have a Neutral recommendation on Marriott. The company has benefited from the implementation of the cost reduction initiatives. We believe that Marriott is better positioned to command a premium room rate relative to the overall lodging industry. We are also positive about the prospects of Marcus Corp. (MCS), Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) and Wyndham Worldwide Corp. (WYN).
WEAKNESSES
According to data from Smith Travel Research, the U.S. hotel industry reported declines in all three key performance measurements during the first week of November. The industry’s occupancy decreased 3.6% year-over-year, while the average daily rate fell 8.5%. These declines resulted in an 11.8% drop in RevPAR.
We expect RevPAR to decline through the remainder of 2009. To this point, the majority of the declines have stemmed from occupancy losses. Nevertheless, while occupancy declines have somewhat stabilized, the rate of decline in ADR has continued to increase. Given the lower levels of room revenue, we expect margins to tighten materially during 2009, resulting in substantial year-over-year earnings declines.
We expect hotels in the Luxury and Upper Upscale Chain Scale segments to experience greater declines in RevPAR due to continued pricing pressure primarily from both larger corporate accounts and meetings. We noticed that Starwood, which operates mostly luxury and other top-tier properties, has been particularly sensitive to the decline in business travel and corporate cost-cutting. Though we have a Neutral recommendation on Starwood, we note that its margins remained compressed in the third quarter. We are also concerned about the prospects of Morgans Hotel Group Co. (MHGC).
In addition, companies with weak balance sheets -- or even limited financial flexibility -- will likely have a harder time navigating the challenges created by the economic recession.
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Posted Thu Nov 12, 04:40 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
Steel Output Mounting
The Steel industry, which consists of companies engaged in the extraction of iron ore and coke coal for the processing of iron and steel, has the major chunk of sales concentrated with a few producers. The industry includes metal ore exploration and mining services, iron and steel foundries for smelting, rolling, forging, spinning, recycling, stamping, polishing and plating of iron and steel products such as pipes, tubes, wire, spring, rolls and bars.
The largest drivers of steel consumption have historically been the automotive and construction markets, which make up more than 50% of total steel consumption. Other steel consuming industries include appliances, converters, containers, tin, energy, electrical equipment, agricultural, domestic and commercial equipment and industrial machinery. Large automakers such as General Motors, Ford Motor Company (F), Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) and Honda Motor Company (HMC) depend upon the steel industry.
ArcelorMittal (MT) is the world’s largest steel company with steel production of 103.3 million tons in 2008. Other major players in the industry are POSCO (PKX), Steel Dynamics Inc. (STLD), AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS), United States Steel Corporation (X) and Nucor Corporation (NUE).
The Asia-Pacific region, especially China and India, is witnessing higher production and consumption of steel. This is due to the per capita consumption reaching up to U.S./European levels, which could, theoretically at least, double steel demand in the longer-term. China has set up the largest steel industries in the world, driven by increasing demand for rapid urbanization and large infrastructure projects. The country accounted for nearly 50% of monthly total world production in August 2009.
China’s share is larger than the combined production of the U.S., the European Union (EU), Russia and Japan, which have historically been the largest producers of steel. In 2001, China's annual share of world production stood at 17%, while the EU accounted for the largest share at 18%. In eight years, China's share of world production has almost tripled, while other producers have seen their shares decrease. Ranked behind China are Japan and the U.S.
According to the World Steel Association, global steel output had increased to 107 million tons in the month of September 2009, down marginally (0.6%) from the same month of the previous year. Month-on-month, steel output improved slightly from 106.5 million tons. World crude steel production has continued to show a steady increase since April 2009. Steel production had reached its highest level in July this year on the back of a moderate rise in demand and the resumption of idled facilities by producers. The total output of 103.9 million tons was an improvement of 4% from 99.8 million tons produced in October, but down 11.1% year over year.
All major steel producing countries -- China, Japan, Germany, the U.S., Brazil, Turkey, Russia and the Ukraine -- have shown peak monthly figures so far this year. Production in the Middle East, where demand was buoyant last year due to booming infrastructure spending, edged up by 2.0% in September, while monthly steel output in Asia increased 15% to over 60 million tons. Of this, production in China climbed 28.7% to 39.4 million tons. However, global steel production was down 32.3% in North America while production in Europe saw a drop of 23.7%.
According to the data released by the International Trade Administration, steel prices increased across almost all product groups in September 2009 from August 2009. Hot-rolled sheet prices increased 12.6% to $535 per ton from $475 per ton. Cold-rolled sheet increased 10.04% to $625 per from $568 per ton. Stainless sheet prices increased 2.7% to $2,334 per ton.
Steel prices across all product groups have fallen significantly from the previous year despite recent price increases, with the price of hot-rolled sheet showing a 54.6% decrease and cold-rolled sheet a 41.3% decrease from September 2008.
In 2007, China’s steel industry revealed signs of consolidation in a market that was previously rather fragmented and in need of mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Despite the current slowdown in consolidation within the global steel industry, M&A activity remains a critically important business strategy for companies. While the economic downturn is a significant factor in short-term decisions regarding M&A activity, steel companies expect to make acquisitions over the next three years.
OPPORTUNITIES
We expect global steel demand to improve in the long term with the recovery of the user industries. China is expected to remain the largest consumer of steel going forward. World Steel is forecasting an 8.6% year over year decline in steel production, better than the previous forecast of a 14.1% decline, driven by a strong growth in Chinese steel demand. With signs of a recovery across the world since the beginning of the second half of 2009, the association is anticipating global steel demand in 2010 to grow by 9.2% to 1,206 million tons, which is similar to the level in 2008.
With steel demand picking up in the last couple of months, steel producers are restarting facilities. U.S. Steel Corp. is restarting its blast furnace at its Hamilton, Ontario plant after a nine-month shutdown. The company had closed its Hamilton blast furnace in November 2008. It had suspended the remaining operations at Hamilton and the Nanticoke operation in March 2009 due to a drop in demand. Both the facilities were running at less than half their capacity.
Net losses for Nucor Corporation, the largest recycler of steel scrap in the U.S., narrowed to $29.5 million, or 10 cents per share, for the third quarter of 2009. The result was more positive than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 14 cents. Long-term contracts, cost reduction efforts and a dominant acquisition strategy inspire optimism about the company’s performance in the coming quarters.
The third largest steel maker in the U.S., Steel Dynamics Inc. reported net income of $69 million -- 30 cents per share -- for the third quarter of 2009, after reporting losses for three consecutive quarters. The earnings, which were driven by cost reduction through higher production and shipping volumes at the Flat Roll Division and better-than-expected performance in the Metals Recycling segment, were higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents. However, on a year-over-year basis, earnings were down 69%.
WEAKNESSES
The global steel industry is cyclical, highly competitive and has historically been characterized by overcapacity. Production cuts of up to 35% are occurring to keep operating rates in the low-80s and keep the market balanced. The U.S. domestic production capacity utilization has fallen dramatically since August 2008. Capacity utilization peaked in February 2008 at a level of 91.6%. In May 2009, estimated capacity utilization was 44.3%, less than half of its level six months ago. Capacity utilization reached its lowest point, 40.9%, in December 2008, though it has increased again since May 2009.
Overcapacity in the global steel industry could increase the level of steel imports and result in downward pressure on steel prices. Overcapacity in China has the potential to result in a further increase in imports of low-priced, unfairly traded steel and steel products to the U.S. In recent years, capacity growth in China has significantly exceeded the growth in Chinese market demand. A continuation of this unbalanced growth trend or a significant decrease in China’s rate of economic expansion could result in China increasing steel exports.
Key steel consuming industries such as auto, shipbuilding and construction had been experiencing weak demand in the last quarters, forcing global steel makers to slacken production levels. U.S. Steel, the eighth largest steel producer in the world, the largest integrated steel producer headquartered in North America, and one of the largest integrated flat-rolled producers in Central Europe, slashed production by almost 62% during the second quarter of 2009, while Korean steel maker POSCO cut production by about 15% in December last year. This was the first time in its history that POSCO was forced to take such a measure, proof of the very bad operating environment.
The current low demand from the automotive and residential sectors and rising labor costs are affecting producers in the steel industry. Weak demand and significantly lower operating rates have forced producers to shut down facilities. The slowdown in the U.S./Europe/Japanese economies remains a negative issue facing steel producers. The automotive market has yet to recover fully. Steel shipments are off at a double-digit rate.
As a whole, the steel industry posted weak results in the third quarter of 2009. U.S. Steel Corporation recorded its third sequential loss -- $3.03 billion, or $2.11 per share -- in the third quarter of 2009, in contrast to a net income of $9.19 billion or $7.79 per share in the third quarter of 2008. Commercial metals company AK Steel posted a negligible income of $6.2 million compared to $188.3 million in the same quarter of 2008.
Despite a sharp rise in steel prices in September 2009, the future pricing remains uncertain, and we believe continued demand weakness, production resumption by some mills and lower iron ore and coking coal prices in the second half of 2009 would drive monthly prices down again. The recent significant reduction in global steel production in late 2008 and into 2009 has resulted in decreases in many raw material prices.
We expect that such prices will rebound when global steel production returns to more customary levels. In contrast, prices for steelmaking commodities such as steel scrap, coal, coke, iron ore, zinc, tin and other metallic additions have escalated significantly over the last several years due primarily to growth in worldwide steel production, especially in China.
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Posted Mon Nov 09, 04:47 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
The pharmaceutical industry has witnessed major changes in 2009. Performance has been affected by factors like sluggish prescription trends, intensifying generic competition and limited phase III catalysts. The next five years are expected to reflect a significant imbalance between new product introductions and patent losses.
According to IMS Health (RX), this is the main reason why global pharmaceutical market growth will be restricted to the mid-single digits through 2013. Over the next five years, products that currently generate about $137 billion in sales are expected to face generic competition, including Lipitor, Plavix and Seretide. At the same time, new products are not expected to generate the same level of sales as the products losing patent protection have.
With most of the big pharma companies already facing patent challenges for their blockbuster products or likely to face them going forward, the companies have been looking toward mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and in-licensing deals to make up for the loss of revenues.
We saw huge M&A activity in the first half of 2009. Major deals include Abbott Laboratories’ (ABT) acquisition of Advanced Medical Optics, Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) acquisition of Mentor Corp., Pfizer’s (PFE) acquisition of Wyeth and the merger between Merck (MRK) and Schering-Plough (SGP).
While these deals took place between large-cap pharma companies, others have been looking toward biotech companies to build their product portfolios. Prime examples include Johnson & Johnson’s acquisition of Cougar Biotechnology, Roche’s acquisition of Genentech, Bristol-Myer Squibbs’ (BMY) acquisition of Medarex, and Sanofi-Aventis’ (SNY) acquisition of Fovea Pharmaceuticals, SA.
We expect this trend to continue. Small biotech companies are also game for such deals. Given the current economic situation, most small biotech companies are finding it difficult to raise cash, thereby making it difficult for them to survive and continue with the development of promising pipeline candidates. As such, it makes sense for these companies to seek deals with pharma companies that are sitting on huge piles of cash. We would recommend investors to put their money in biotech stocks that have attractive pipeline candidates or technology that can be used for the development of novel therapeutics.
Another recent trend seen in the pharmaceutical sector is a focus on emerging markets. Companies like Mylan Inc (MYL), GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Sanofi-Aventis are all looking to expand their presence in India, China, Brazil and other emerging markets.
Until recently, most of the commercialization efforts were focused on the U.S. (the largest pharmaceutical market), Europe and Japan. However, emerging markets are slowly and steadily gaining more importance and several companies are now shifting their focus to these areas. According to IMS Health, China’s pharmaceutical market is expected to continue to grow more than 20% annually, and contribute 21% of overall global growth through 2013. Growth in emerging markets could help stabilize the base business during the industry’s 2010-15 patent cliff.
In addition to patent challenges, pharma companies have been facing headwinds in the form of foreign exchange fluctuations. Increased generic competition and foreign exchange headwinds will continue impacting revenues of major pharmaceutical companies. Johnson & Johnson recently reported that third quarter revenues were down due to the impact of generics and foreign exchange headwinds. With revenue growth stalling or slowing down, companies have been resorting to cost-cutting and share buybacks to drive bottom-line growth.
Valuations, however, are attractive, with several of the largest players trading at PEs below 10x, including: Pfizer (8.3x), Eli Lilly (LLY) (7.7x), Sanofi-Aventis ( 7.7x), and AstraZeneca (AZN) (7.2x) based on fiscal 2009 estimates. Attractive valuations, along with big dividend yields and diversified revenues bases, should protect investors from significant downside risk even if the economy continues to languish in the coming quarters.
OPPORTUNITIES
In the pharma space, we are positive on stocks like Alcon (ACL) and Novartis (NVS). We believe these companies will continue witnessing revenue growth based on continued international penetration, new product launches and market share expansion. Pipeline expansion through in-licensing deals and acquisitions should also add to growth.
Novartis should see strong vaccine sales this flu season. The company has received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its swine flu vaccine, which should drive revenues.
Although we have Neutral ratings on names like Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Labs, we maintain a positive outlook on these stocks given their diversified revenue base, strong business segments, contributions from recent acquisitions and impressive late-stage pipelines. We also have a positive outlook on Bristol-Myers, which has a strong presence in attractive areas like biologics, cancer and cardiovascular drugs.
In the biotech space, we are positive on names like Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Biogen Idec (BIIB) even though we have Neutral recommendations on these stocks. Gilead’s HIV franchise has been helping the company post better-than-expected earnings over the past few quarters and we expect this trend to continue.
Biotech companies that could be acquisition targets provide opportunities for significant returns. Here, we would like to mention two companies that could be potential take-out targets -- Biogen Idec and Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR). In addition to holding a leading position in the multiple sclerosis market, we believe Biogen has the best pipeline in all of biotech and could be an attractive takeover candidate for pharma companies interested in biologics.
Meanwhile, Acorda is one of the more interesting biotechnology companies under our coverage. We have an Outperform rating on the stock. Acorda recently received a favorable recommendation from an FDA advisory panel on its key pipeline drug, Fampridine-SR, which could have blockbuster potential worldwide.
WEAKNESSES
We recommend avoiding names that offer little growth or opportunity for a take-out. These include companies which are developing drugs that are likely to face regulatory hurdles. The FDA has been exercising more caution before granting approval to new products and several candidates have been facing delays in receiving final approval.
We would also avoid companies like Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) which are facing patent expirations on key products and do not have a solid pipeline to make up for the loss of revenues that will take place once generics enter the market.
Meanwhile, we continue to believe Pfizer’s (PFE) acquisition of Wyeth (WYE) will create an even bigger struggling company. Both companies have significant patent expirations in the years to come, and both have been severely lacking in their R&D productivity over the past few years. We recommend avoiding both names.
In the biotech sector, we have an Underperform rating on Genzyme Corporation (GENZ), which is facing issues like lower revenues, contracting gross margins, supply constraints, manufacturing hiccups and delays in new product launches.
We would also recommend avoiding biotech companies that are struggling to survive and are unable to strike partnership deals for their pipeline candidates. One name that comes to mind is MannKind Corp. (MNKD) which has been looking for a partner for its key candidate, Afresa. The company’s stock declined significantly on the news that it will not be able to enter into a partnership deal by year end, contrary to earlier expectations.
Another name to avoid would be Alkermes, Inc. (ALKS) which is awaiting FDA approval for its type-II diabetes candidate, exenatide once-weekly. Although the efficacy data on exenatide once-weekly is impressive, we are concerned that the approval of the product could be pushed back beyond the first quarter of 2010, given the current regulatory environment and concerns regarding the safety of the candidate.
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Posted Thu Nov 05, 04:16 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
OUTLOOK
The improving economic scene, both here in the U.S. as well as worldwide, is the main driver of the current oil rally that has seen the commodity settling around the $80 per barrel level. But high levels of product inventories (particularly gasoline), along with still higher supplies, will limit any sustained crude gains, in our view. But way too many factors weigh on oil prices, from OPEC decisions and geostrategic tensions to the value of the U.S. dollar and seasonal variables, to definitively size up each one of them for their respective impact on prices.
In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a less-than-anticipated increase in crude stockpiles, which rose by 800,000 barrels for the week ending October 23. However, current crude oil stocks, at 339.9 million barrels, still remain 9% above the year-earlier level as well as above the upper limit of the average for this time of the year. As such, crude oil’s near-term fundamentals remain dismal, to say the least.
At current projections, world crude demand for 2009 is expected to be below last year’s level, which itself was below the 2007 level -- the first time since the early 1980’s of two back-to-back negative growth years.
Last month, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) provided some positive news in this otherwise bleak supply-demand picture. The energy-monitoring body of 28 industrialized countries hiked its global oil demand forecast for both this year and 2010 by 200,000 barrels per day and 350,000 barrels per day, respectively, citing higher-than-expected consumption in Asia and the Americas.
Our view is that oil should be able to hold onto its recent gains and consolidate around current levels, provided this favorable economic view remains in place. But this does not mean that we will not see any short-term pullbacks. On the whole, we expect oil prices in 2010 to be higher than the 2009 levels, but remain significantly below the 2008 peak levels.
Natural Gas
The overall picture remains particularly weak for natural gas, whose inventories have recently hit a new record high of 3.76 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) and is threatening to test the maximum capacity of 3.89 Tcf. Continued strong domestic production (from a number of unconventional natural gas fields) and recessionary consumption (due to the economic downturn), particularly in the industrial sector, are at the core of the commodity's current woes.
Natural gas prices rallied earlier last year, reaching over $13 per million Btu (MMBtu) in July 2008, before trending down to seven-year low level of sub-$2 per MMBtu (we are referring to Henry Hub spot prices here) in September 2009. This, together with tighter access to credit, has prompted producers to scale back drilling operations over the past few quarters.
The supply picture is expected to reverse in the coming months as the lag effect of the sharp drop in domestic drilling activity takes hold. But we do not think this would be enough to offset the record high inventories (storage levels remaining 12% above their five-year average) and steep recession-related cuts in demand. This translates into limited upside for natural gas-weighted companies and related support plays.
OPPORTUNITIES
The strengthening oil price environment should benefit producers, particularly those international players having attractive growth opportunities in their home markets. Two such standout names are China’s CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) and China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec (SNP), both of which remain well-placed to benefit from the country’s growing appetite for energy.
CNOOC enjoys a monopoly on exploration activities in China’s very prospective offshore region in addition to having a growing presence in the country’s natural gas and LNG infrastructure. On the other hand, Sinopec is the second largest crude oil and natural gas producer, and the largest refiner and marketer of refined petroleum products in China. Sinopec’s leverage to the lucrative Chinese market and the recent $7.5 billion Addax acquisition is expected to help sustain its growth momentum.
Within the oilfield services group, we prefer to own companies such as Cameron International (CAM) that derives about two-thirds of its revenue from outside North America, thereby playing an offsetting role to the relatively soft U.S. drilling scene. Cameron recently posted better-than-expected third quarter results and raised its 2009 forecast, as a revival in energy prices led to improved drilling activities.
WEAKNESSES
We continue to feel strongly that industry players in the servicing and drilling ends of the business with substantial natural gas-focused and North America-centric operations should be avoided. A major sub-sector that fits that description is the onshore drillers. While we currently don't have any Underperform rated stocks in this group, we remain skeptical of land drillers like Nabors (NBR) and Patterson-UTI (PTEN), given the extent of excess capacity in the sector that is expected to weigh on dayrates and margins well into next year.
As expected, natural-gas woes in North America have pulled down the oilfield services companies' third-quarter results. In particular, we remain wary of service providers like Smith International Inc. (SII), given its high North American exposure (from the W-H Energy acquisition) in the face of a collapse in the region’s drilling activities. We have Neutral recommendation on the company, whose third quarter results came in significantly below expectations.
Within the E&P group, we see little reason for investors to own shares of Stone Energy Corp. (SGY). We believe that Stone’s asset portfolio, centered on the Gulf Coast/Gulf of Mexico regions and lacking meaningful exposure to the emerging shale plays, is not suited for the current environment of low commodity prices and restricted access to capital.
We also maintain our cautious view on oil refiners, given the higher-than-average gasoline and distillate stocks -- a combination that will continue to hurt their profitability going into 2010. Additionally, the sharply lower refinery utilization (at around 82% of capacity) provides enough evidence that refineries are cutting back on production because the economy is still struggling on the demand side.
Being the largest independent refiner, Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) remains particularly exposed to this unfavorable macro backdrop. We have an Underperform recommendation on the company.
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Posted Wed Nov 04, 05:00 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
OUTLOOK
The Alternative Energy industry is going through a recovery after absorbing the global recession and the cascading fall in global crude oil prices. Earlier this year, quite a few alternative energy companies were in the trough. Though these companies have recovered from their lows, their valuations are still significantly lower than their 52-week highs.
The growth of alternative energy companies is closely tied to the fortunes of the economy. In its latest release, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that total U.S. electricity consumption will decline by 3.3% in 2009 before growing by 1.3% in 2010 as the improving economy coaxes a gradual recovery in electricity sales. In fiscal 2008, annual U.S. photovoltaic (PV) installed capacity grew by 63% year-over-year, bringing the cumulative installed capacity to 792MW.
According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) -- the U.S. trade association representing close to 500 companies in the solar energy industry -- Germany ranked first followed by Spain, Japan and U.S. in terms of cumulative installed solar electric power as of year-end fiscal 2008. However in fiscal 2008, Spain (2.46GW in 2008) beat Germany (1.86GW) in terms of new installations. World solar PV installations reached a record high of 5.95GW in 2008, representing growth of 110% over 2007.
According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) -- the world industry association for solar photovoltaic electricity market -- the cumulative global installed PV capacity stood at almost 15GW, compared to only 9GW in 2007.
OPPORTUNITIES
Environmental Advantage: Solar power is one of the most benign electric generation resources. Solar cells generate electricity without air or water emissions, noise, vibration, habitat impact or waste generation.
Fuel Risk Advantage: Unlike fossil and nuclear fuels, solar energy has no risk of fuel price volatility or delivery risk. Although there is variability in the amount and timing of sunlight in the day, season and year, a properly sized and configured system can be designed to be highly reliable while providing a long-term, fixed-price electric supply.
Locational Advantage: Unlike other renewable resources such as hydroelectric and wind power, solar power is generally located at a customer’s site due to the universal availability of sunlight. As a result, solar power limits the expense and energy losses associated with the transmission and distribution from large-scale electric plants to the end users. For most residential consumers seeking an environment-friendly power alternative, solar power is currently the only viable choice as it can be sourced in urban and rural environments.
Subsidy Programs: Governments, most notably that of China, have increased their financial support for solar projects. China is aiming at increasing its installed solar power capacity to 2GW by 2011 from 140MW capacity at the end of fiscal 2008. To fulfill this objective, the Chinese government offers 50% of the cost of investment of solar power projects. For solar projects in remote areas, the government subsidizes 70% of the project cost. A company under our coverage benefiting from this move includes Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF).
Through the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA) passed in February 2009, the U.S. Treasury Department has implemented a program to issue cash grants in lieu of the investment tax credit for renewable energy projects. Recent focus on renewable sources will greatly benefit green crusader companies like Rentech Inc. (RTK). Also, the Department of Energy (DOE) in the U.S. has implemented a loan guarantee program to help developers obtain financing for solar power projects.
WEAKNESSES
Recent Start-ups: A large number of alternative energy companies are recent start-ups with limited resources. As such, quite a few depend on their customers’ ability to finance solar projects.
Global Recession: The global economic crisis has affected alternative energy sales and earnings growth. Weakness in the debt and equity markets, for as long as it lasts, will raise costs of capital for firms in this emerging sector and may hinder project financing, working capital requirements and new research and development.
Fortune Tied to Crude: Alternative energy stock prices generally rise and fall in direct proportion to the price of crude oil. While in times of high oil prices this may present an opportunity, it also increases volatility in the sector.
Excess Capacity: Industry-wide excess solar cell and module capacity have led to stockpiling across the board. As a result, we think the performance of companies such as Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR), JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd. (JASO), A-Power Energy Generation System (APWR) and LDK Solar Company Ltd. (LDK) -- burdened as they are with high inventory levels -- will remain under pressure in the near term.
German Roll-back: Germany, one of the prime solar markets with a lucrative subsidy program, is considering a roll-back of its grants. This will affect companies such as First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and SunPower Corporation (SPWRA), who generate a substantial portion of their sales from Germany.
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Posted Tue Nov 03, 03:27 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
OVERVIEW
Inherently, big defense contractors are expected to eliminate jobs as the Pentagon has lowered spending on traditional weapon systems, while smaller, niche companies may accelerate hiring as the United States garners resources to protect ground troops and strategic computer networks.
Industry pioneer Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) aims to reduce 600 jobs as a result of the US Defense Department's decision to terminate the VH-71 presidential helicopter program. The Boeing Company (BA) hinted that Pentagon cuts would claim 1,000 jobs in its defense business, affecting staffing at various work sites in the United States in missile defense and in the Army's Future Combat Systems modernization program, which is now being opened to more competition.
The large commercial aircraft sector is expected to generate most of its revenue from Asia Pacific Japan (APJ) and the Middle East, relying less on U.S. orders because of the current economic climate. However, airline companies worldwide will continue to struggle with the global economic recession, fuel price fluctuations and the difficulty in raising ticket prices, which might have an impact on airplane and engine purchase orders in 2009.
Despite robust business aviation forecasts, there may be short-term customer financing challenges for the business jets segment. Thus, we would generally expect that 2009 to see a fall-off in business jet orders, production and deliveries.
The appetite for both US and non-US Aerospace & Defense assets has been significantly constrained by the ongoing global recession and the resulting squeeze on corporate profits, lack of liquidity and continuing uncertainty about when a recovery is likely to begin. Year-to-date, there have been just six deals with values at or greater than $50 million.
The total value for deals announced during the first half of 2009 with a disclosed value of at least $50 million was just under $600 million, substantially less than total deal values in the first half of 2008 ($11.7 billion), representing a decline of 95% year-over-year. Notably, the largest transaction in 2008 -- Finmeccanica’s acquisition of DRS Technologies, announced in May 2008 for $5 billion -- occurred in the first half of that year. Excluding this transaction, the total deal value for the first half of 2008 was $6.6 billion, which is still much higher than the value of transactions during the first half of 2009.
Financial investors remain on the sidelines as financing remains challenging compared with the same period a year ago. Strategic investors have also experienced a decrease in deal activity involving acquisitions of $50 million or more. To date, there have been four deals announced involving strategic investors. This compares with the 20 deals in the first half of 2008, an 80% decrease over the same period a year ago. Strategic investors have redirected their focus on internal restructuring initiatives.
On an annualized basis, the actual number of deals in 2009 is in line with 2008 (270 compared with 275, respectively). But as the economic downturn intensified in the first half of 2009, the value of those transactions has decreased drastically. The average transaction value for first-half 2008 was $85 million compared with $7.5 million for first-half 2009, representing an approximate 91% decrease.
OPPORTUNITIES
With core defense spending expected to slow, U.S. defense contractors need to identify additional revenue sources for the coming years. 2009 holds potential for interesting merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, mostly smaller deals by larger A&D firms to fill in capability gaps -- particularly in the security, defense electronics and aftermarket services business areas. U.S. defense firms may see opportunities in credit-squeezed markets to pick up U.S. assets at historically low price-to-earnings multiples.
Some large companies are expanding into the adjacent markets of mission support and services, such as performance-based logistics, or PBL, which can provide a more consistent -- albeit riskier though perhaps more profitable -- revenue stream.
Building on the example set by engine manufacturers -- Pratt & Whitney, a United Technologies Corporation (UTX) company, and Rolls-Royce Group -- to get 50% of revenues and 60% of profits from their services business, Aerospace & Defense contractors are learning how to take on, measure and internalize risk and to make support and services offerings profitable. This includes understanding how to service the equipment they manufacture, and assembling the necessary infrastructure, capabilities and people to operate it.
Shifting defense priorities could prove to be a boon for some manufacturers as the Pentagon looks to beef up protection for US ground soldiers. Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) is aiming to induct 300 to 500 workers in Wisconsin and calling back as many as 650 it had let go at a Pennsylvania facility as it looks to fill orders for armored trucks that can deflect roadside bombs. The truck manufacturer also won a $1.1 billion contract to build more than 2,200 Mine Resistant Ambush Protect All Terrain Vehicles for use by US troops in Afghanistan.
Companies are also leveraging strong balance sheets to grow organically and acquire new services business. As product development transitions to production program deliveries, it is anticipated that companies will ramp up their services businesses and profitability should improve.
Overall, in the next two decades, The Boeing Company (BA) forecasts delivery of 29,400 new commercial aircraft worth $3.2 trillion. Honeywell International Inc’s (HON) 2008 forecast predicts 17,000 new business aircraft valued at $300 billion. While we currently don’t have Outperform recommendation on aircraft and engine manufacturers, we have positive outlooks on UTX, BA and HON.
WEAKNESSES
A major Aerospace & Defense sector challenge for 2009 is improving program management and execution. For the past few years, commercial aircraft programs have run late due to global supply chain or design problems. In addition, government aerospace procurements have overrun their budgets.
The root causes for this problem are as follows:
- Technical complexity - Today’s programs rely on the use of leading-edge, still-maturing software-based technologies, which require infinitely higher levels of functionality, interoperability and integration. This technical complexity has resulted in increased development time vs. historical programs.
- Talent crisis - Twenty-seven percent of employees in the sector are estimated to retire in the next five years. In addition, the National Science Foundation expects the number of science, technology and engineering retirements to increase threefold annually in the next 10 years. Unfortunately, the industry may not be able to attract sufficient new talent to make up for the deficit.
- Supply chain challenges - The Aerospace & Defense supply chain management model is transitioning to a global, super-supplier model for the Tier 1 suppliers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). These organizations are shedding manufacturing and subsystem assembly work, relying on super- or middle-tier suppliers to take on increasingly complex design and manufacturing tasks.
- Politics - Aerospace & Defense programs span multiple years but are budgeted annually. In times of economic stress, other government priorities may prompt cuts in multiyear projects for a number of units. This approach typically results in increased fly-away unit costs.
- Program management challenges - Many Aerospace & Defense program schedules are based on a "sunny day" scenario, rather than a more realistic "cloudy day" scenario that contemplates program delays, technical difficulties, supply chain problems and changing requirements. These program management challenges and associated cost overruns need to be addressed by improving cost, schedule, and risk management processes and techniques.
With an increase in passenger traffic and competitors, commercial airplanes have become more commoditized, requiring companies to improve differentiation. Airline manufacturers therefore should promote product and process innovation.
The new Boeing 787 Dreamliner is a good example: It will be the first major aircraft to use composite materials for most of its construction. Featuring an estimated 20% lower direct operating cost, better passenger comfort via higher air pressure and humidity, larger windows and less-frequent maintenance requirements, the 787 has become the most successful aircraft product launch in aviation history, as measured by the number of aircraft ordered prior to first flight.
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Posted Mon Oct 26, 12:35 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
The U.S. Airlines industry has gone through several ups and downs in the past five years. Major negative influences on the industry included skyrocketing oil prices since 2005, economic recession in the U.S. since 2008, global economic downturn in 2009 and the "swine flu" outbreak.
The airlines industry is cyclical and sensitive to a number of key drivers, the most prominent of which is the world price of crude oil. Since the beginning of 2009, prices of crude oil have been half of what they had been the year before, creating some relief for airlines. However, some industry operators hedged their fuel contracts at higher rates and are still paying the price.
Many of the top airlines in the industry have responded by reducing services and aircraft fleet sizes, introducing new fees and higher fuel surcharges and reducing the number of people employed. Even with the price of fuel cut by half in 2009, these measures are expected to remain in place during the year. This is mainly due to a sharp decline in demand for travel, which can be as damaging for operators as high costs.
The airlines industry will be spending the next five years playing catch-up after suffering under the recession in 2009. Industry drivers all point to a slow recovery during 2010 and faster growth in the next four years. Additional fees and charges will continue to be the main method to offset oil price volatility. Hedging strategies are another profit protection tool and will be more extensively undertaken than in the past, despite the large drop in oil prices.
The volatility of oil has brought the benefits of successful risk management strategies such as hedging to the forefront of airline executives' minds. Air fares are expected to increase in 2010 with slightly higher passenger numbers. Confidence on both the consumer and business sides are expected to be up during the year, supporting demand for air travel. Fuel prices will remain subdued in 2010, giving the industry a breather after years of losses.
We also expect an increase in merger and acquisition activity in response to the challenges facing the industry. During 2009, operating conditions will remain tough and some companies will need rescuing from bad debts, large losses or similar items. Low-cost airlines are expected to weather the storm in 2009 with most tailwinds, as consumers will keep turning towards cheaper options. This will put them in a favorable position in 2010 and may make them purchase some smaller regional operators.
OPPORTUNITIES
Though almost all carriers are expected to post negative earnings in 2009, we favor Southwest Airlines (LUV), as it is the most successful low cost carrier in the U.S. Southwest has maintained continued profitability for the last 30 years -- even during periods of industry downturns -- mainly due to its strong fuel hedging strategies. Low-cost airlines are expected to get a higher share of revenue in the future, which will see structural changes in the industry and consolidation as a result of competitive pressures.
Another carrier, JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), is projected to fare better than the average major player during the 2009 recession due to the competitive nature of the product and an increase in demand for low-cost services. The company has been able to increase its revenues ahead of the industry average for the past four years.
WEAKNESSES
As a means of recovering lost revenues, some airlines have been increasingly using higher fees. Additional charges have focused on forcing passengers to pay more to check in additional baggage, which can cost up to $50 each way. This has led to a lack of pricing transparency in the industry. United Airlines (UAUA), Delta Airlines (DAL) and American Airlines (AMR) are some of the airlines whose reputation has suffered due to this. Moreover, volatility in oil prices in times of falling demand has taken a toll on these air carriers.
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Posted Thu Oct 22, 01:06 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
Amid positive signals emanating from the uptick in housing prices and an improving outlook for consumer spending, the housing sector is gradually stabilizing. Both new and existing home sales have increased during the last four consecutive months and are now 32% and 17% above their recent lows, respectively. Single-family housing starts have also risen 37% from their low point, and inventories of homes-for-sale have fallen sharply.
Equity REITs rebounded nicely in the third quarter, recording total returns of 33% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) vs. a 15% gain each for the S&P and the Dow. The strong third quarter returns marked the second consecutive record-setting performance of equity REITs after a dismal performance in the first quarter of 2009.
In what has been a volatile year, equity REITs gained approximately 29% (total return FTSE NAREIT Index) in the second quarter after falling 32% in the first quarter. So far in October, equity REITs are down about 1%; the worst performing sectors in October have been Self Storage (- 3.4%), Retail (-1.6%), Industrial/Office (-1.6%), and Residential (-0.8%).
OPPORTUNITIES
Many REITs are still trading at discounts to NAV (net asset value), traditionally a good "buy" signal. Over the past seven or so years, REITs have traded near or in excess of NAV.
With dividend cuts and share price gains, the average yield for equity REITs during the third quarter was about 4%. Although yields have exceeded that of the 10-year Treasury, the spread has narrowed considerably over the past quarter. Most companies have been raising cash through asset sales and equity financing, with the proceeds being used to pay down debt.
The credit freeze will have a positive effect on commercial real estate down the road; new office, apartment and retail construction has slowed considerably, which will benefit owners in a couple of years. Many companies that we cover have stopped all-new construction.
In this environment, we like well-capitalized companies that have adequate liquidity and manageable near-term debt maturities. Currently, we are bullish on American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC), a mortgage REIT that invests exclusively in agency securities for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by U.S. government agencies like Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE). During the second quarter of 2009, American Capital reported net spread of 3.66% with 39.8% return on equity (ROE), and is one of the few companies to have increased the dividend.
Another stock worth mentioning is Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), the largest publicly traded office REIT in the New York region concentrating on Class A office properties. The core properties of Vornado are still performing at a high level, maintaining strong occupancies and increasing rents in most property formats. We believe this puts the company well ahead of many competitors, and warrants upside potential.
We would also like to mention Simon Property Group Inc. (SPG), the largest publicly traded retail real estate company in North America, with assets in almost all retail distribution channels. The geographic and product diversity of the company insulates it from market volatility to a great extent and provides a steady source of income. Furthermore, Simon Property’s international presence gives it a more sustainable long-term growth story than its domestically focused peers.
WEAKNESSES
REITs still depend on access to capital to fund growth, and with the credit markets still not fully back to normal, it is difficult to raise money for new developments/acquisitions. In this scenario, most REITs are raising capital through property level debt, dividend reductions and equity offerings. Although both debt and equity financings provide the much-needed cash infusion, they could potentially burden an already leveraged balance sheet and/or dilute earnings. Property level debt is also harder to obtain and more expensive as commercial real estate prices continue to remain under pressure.
Fundamentals are declining in many suburban office markets as corporate expansion continues to slow. More and more corporations are putting off leasing decisions until the economy recovers. Recent employment trends are also not encouraging as the U.S. economy continues to shed jobs at a rapid pace. To date, the U.S. has lost about 7.2 million jobs since the start of recession in December 2007. The national unemployment rate has surged to 9.8%. As the U.S. economy struggles with the economic downturn, REITs will have trouble holding tenants and leasing new space.
Given the market uncertainties, we are bearish on Developers Diversified Realty Corporation (DDR), which is primarily engaged in owning and leasing shopping centers across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Brazil, Russia and Canada. The current recession has led to increased tenant bankruptcies, which in turn have led to a decline in occupancy and an increase in vacancy rates. The possibility of store closings at many Developers Diversified centers further adds uncertainty to the earnings, and it might have to re-let large "big-box" spaces at significantly lower rents in a very tough leasing environment.
We would also avoid Post Properties, Inc. (PPS), an apartment REIT relying heavily on low-barrier markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Orlando and Tampa. We think the company will have a difficult time continuing to raise rents in a faltering economy, and expect flat rental rates and negative same-store revenue growth in 2009.
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Posted Mon Oct 19, 02:13 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
The Restaurant Industry has been facing extremely tough challenges due to the ongoing economic turmoil. With rising unemployment and lower discretionary spending, we believe it will be too early to predict improvement in the industry, which is grappling with sluggish consumer demand.
Although the current economic indicators show some signs of improvement, we believe that job losses will continue to adversely impact the restaurant industry even several months after the recovery is on track.
The U.S. restaurant industry, which constitutes fast food, casual dining and upscale chains, is facing its toughest times in three decades. A report by market research firm, NPD Group asserted that U.S. restaurant guest traffic plunged 2.6% for the quarter ended May 31, the steepest fall in 28 years. However, the quick-service restaurants (traffic down 2%), which are generally less susceptible to an economic downturn, are faring better than casual dining restaurant chains (down 4%) and mid-scale segment (down 6%).
A recent survey by the National Restaurant Association revealed that the Restaurant Performance Index that measures the health and outlook for the U.S. Restaurant Industry softened in August (down 0.2% to 97.9 from July), after posting a marginal improvement in the month of July (up 0.3% to 98.1 from June), sending mixed signals in the industry. The index has remained below 100 for 22 consecutive months indicating that the industry is scaling back its development plans and is in contraction.
The Current Situation Index, which measures comparable store sales, traffic counts, labor costs and capital expenditures fell 0.9% to 96.0 due to sharp declines in sales and traffic in August. Approximately 68% of restaurant operators reported same-store sales decline in August, up from 58% reported in July. Moreover, 65% of operators reported a traffic decline in August compared to 59% reported in July.
The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ outlook on comparable sales, employees, capital expenditures and business environment, rose 0.5% to 99.9. Approximately 32% of restaurant operators (up from 31% in July) now expect to have higher sales in 6 months compared to the same period in the last year. Thirty percent of restaurant operators (down from 33% in July) now expect their sales volume to be lower in 6 months compared to the same period in the last year.
In the midst of what is expected to be a tepid recovery, there are three potential drivers of net income growth: Unit Expansion, Improved Same-Store Sales and Cost Cuts.
There seems little chance that upside will come from more aggressive unit expansion, as most of the companies have either scaled back or postponed further unit development. BJ’s Restaurants Inc. (BJRI) plans to grow the unit base by 12% in fiscal year 2009, much lower than 21% achieved in fiscal year 2008. Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) expects to open 50 to 55 net new restaurants in fiscal year 2010, drastically down from 71 restaurants opened in the last fiscal year.
The second driver, same-store sales, consists of menu price increases and traffic counts. Any price increases other than minimal ones would drive away value-conscious customers in this fiercely competitive environment. Moreover, to enhance the perception of value and to drive traffic, companies are remodeling restaurants, with an up-market feel, and are rolling out new, smaller prototype restaurants that reduce construction and occupancy costs, and in turn boost returns on capital.
Finally, some of the cost cuts have been achieved through integrated information systems including point-of-sale, automated kitchen display, labor-scheduling and theoretical food cost systems. Restaurant companies try to optimize their restaurant operations and achieve decent restaurant operating cash flow margins.
OPPORTUNITIES
Despite the restaurant industry facing the brunt of the economic downturn, there are defensive stocks in the industry promising long-term growth opportunities. Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) offers investors one of the strongest growth stories in this space with growth target of 15% in units, 25% in revenue, and 20% to 25% in net earnings. The company has also been able to deliver positive comps consistently, when other restaurant operators are grappling with deteriorating same-store sales.
McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) with consistent earnings and healthy balance sheet provides relative safety and moderate growth in a turbulent environment and exposure to faster-growing international markets. Another stock, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG), which remains largely unruffled by the slowdown, plans to open 120-130 restaurants in fiscal year 2009 -- a growth of 14.3%-15.5%.
WEAKNESSES
Offsetting these opportunities are the sagging same-stores sales and waning traffic counts. The shares of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. (RRGB) are vulnerable to economic headwinds, and we believe that the stock will continue to underperform the restaurant industry. The chain expects guest counts to remain negative, and expects restaurant-level operating margins to decline by 50 to 80 basis points in fiscal year 2009. The company’s second-quarter 2009 same-store sales fell 11.5%.
Another stock obstructing the recovery is BJ’s Restaurants Inc. (BJRI), which has also been experiencing declining comps and guest traffic. In addition, more than two-thirds of BJ’s Restaurants are located in areas that have been hit hard by the housing downturn and economic slowdown. These include California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. This may dampen the company’s growth potential.
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Posted Thu Oct 15, 03:20 pm ET
by Zacks Equity Research
The global medical devices industry is fairly large and is valued at roughly $223 billion, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 41%. The industry is divided into different categories such as Cardiology, Oncology, Neuro, Orthopedic, Aesthetic Devices and Healthcare IT.
In the medical devices space, we recommend that investors focus on companies providing life-sustaining products. These companies provide a strong recurring stream of revenues as patients are unable to forego these products. Furthermore, investors should allocate funds to companies with high-earnings-quality profiles.
Large companies with a wide portfolio of products are also better poised for good returns. These companies are capable of withstanding the current economic recession.
Another area which is interestingly poised for growth these days is Healthcare IT. The landscape has changed since the Obama Administration passed a health care stimulus package to encourage hospitals and physicians practices to modernize their health record keeping. Names in this area include Allscripts-Misys Healthcare Solutions, Inc. (MDRX), Omnicell Inc. (OMCL) and Merge Healthcare Incorporated (MRGE). However, none of these companies have the above-mentioned attributes that differentiate them from the others. As such, we have a Neutral rating on these stocks.
We advise investors to avoid companies that have grown historically through acquisitions. These companies may find it difficult to fund acquisitions in future. Also, they face increasing challenges in delivering operational synergies from these acquisitions, which are considered to be the prime reason for failures of Mergers & Acquisitions. Additionally, the financial statements of these companies have a large number of one-time items that affect the quality of earnings.
OPPORTUNITIES
In our portfolio, we see growth potential in companies dealing with cardiovascular devices and surgical equipment, blood related products, and associated consumables. Names currently on our Outperform list include Medtronic, Inc. (MDT), Baxter International Inc. (BAX), Haemonetics Corporation (HAE) and Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG). These are all producers of life-sustaining products and are less affected by the current economic turbulence. Among these names, Medtronic has a diversified presence in Cardiovascular, Neuro, Spinal, Diabetes, ENT, etc.
Our industry outlook would be incomplete if we did not discuss names like Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX), St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ) and Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX). These are all leaders in their respective fields of Cardiology, Neuro and disposable products. These names are potential winners in the long run. However, we downgraded these stocks to Neutral based on their prior quarter results. We will closely monitor them in the next quarter results. They are strong candidates for upgrades.
WEAKNESSES
We notice weaknesses in the orthopedic market due to the current economic turbulence that has resulted in patients deferring their elective procedures. Names on this list include Conmed Corporation (CNMD). However, with the economic recovery underway, a few names in this market have already been upgraded to Neutral. These include Symmetry Medical, Inc. (SMA), Wright Medical Group, Inc. (WMGI) and Hanger Orthopedic Group Inc. (HGR).
[Industry Outlook as of October 14, 2009]
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