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Options Commentary

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP).

February 10, 2009 | Comments: 0
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PEP | PAS | BRCM
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In last week's edition of Trading Tools, semiconductor sultan Broadcom Corporation (BRCM - Analyst Report) was examined, as it appeared on the Zacks Unusually High Option Volume screener. Utilizing the same filter today, a different equity caught my attention: beverage behemoth PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP - Analyst Report).

Before we begin, let's explain the contrarian stance that makes Schaeffer's so unique. When searching for a bullish pick, we like to see heavy skepticism toward an outperforming stock, as this leaves ample room for upgrades or other positive catalysts to fuel the stock higher. When searching for a bearish pick, on the other hand, contrarians are looking for significant bullish sentiment toward an underperforming stock, as we believe an excess of optimism is a sign that everyone has already bought into the stock and sideline money is virtually tapped out.

Nevertheless, keep in mind that some optimism and pessimism is genuinely warranted and isn't always a contrarian indicator – like an outperforming stock with many "buy" ratings or an underperforming stock with a plethora of "sell" ratings.

Call Volume Pops

On Thursday, options players scooped up nearly 12,500 calls on the carbonation king, more than 3.5 times the stock's average daily volume of fewer than 3,400 contracts. Most of the bulls were placing their bets a little further into the future; the stock's April 52.50 call was the most popular, with more than 5,000 contracts crossing the tape.

However, it seems options traders diverged from the bearish path, as the recent surge in call volume stands in contrast to the sentiment on the International Securities Exchange (ISE). During the past 10 days, options players on the ISE have purchased (to open) more puts than calls on PEP. What's more, the ratio of 1.81 is only 2 percentage points from an annual pessimistic peak. In other words, during the past couple of weeks, traders on the ISE have been significantly more skeptical than usual.

So, why the bombardment of bullish bets?

A Halo Lift?

The high hopes could have come courtesy of PepsiAmericas Inc. (PAS - Snapshot Report), which bottles and sells PEP products. Last week, the company reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, and forecast 2009 earnings in line with the Street's predictions. As a result of the news, shares of PAS skyrocketed as much as 16%.

"As we bring 2008 to a close, PAS is well positioned, with the fundamentals, capability and financial strength to operate and grow within this new economic landscape," said Chief Executive Robert C. Pohlad. "As a result, we begin 2009 with confidence, but with a pragmatic view of the challenges and the volatility we face."

Technically Speaking...

The promising predictions also boosted the shares of PEP. However, from a more historical perspective, the equity could be facing even bigger technical hurdles. The stock's rally attempts could be hindered by the 54-to-56 neighborhood, which played the part of staunch resistance in 2004 and 2005, and could once again resume that role.

Word on the Street

Another potential catalyst to the downside could be a bout of bearish brokerage notes. Six ranking analysts already deem PEP worthy of a "buy" or better rating, according to Zacks, compared to only 3 lukewarm "holds" and nary a "sell" in sight.

In conclusion, while PEP's recent feats on the charts are nothing to ignore, the stock could still face a stiff layer of technical resistance. In addition, the majority of ranking analysts are already in PEP's bullpen; a rejection in the 54-to-56 region could spark a round of downgrades and/or price-target reductions, which could, in turn, increase selling pressure on the shares.


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