Retailers: Better Forecasts, Tough Conditions

Two pieces of data point to a better outlook for retailers: consumer confidence and earnings estimates.

The Conference Board's May consumer confidence index spiked to 54.9 in May, its highest level since last September. Behind the increase was a 21.3-point jump in the Expectations Index, from 51.0 to 72.3. This suggests that consumers believe economic conditions will likely improve in the future.

Full-year earnings estimates for the retail sector continue to be revised higher. During the past 4 weeks, 3 profit forecasts have been revised higher for every projection that has been cut - the strongest ratio of any sector. Within the sector, the largest number of positive revisions have occurred in Retail-Apparel/Shoe, Retail-Regional Department Store and Retail-Miscellaneous Diversified.

Not All Blue Skies Ahead

Though both pieces of data are bullish, the underlying data is not so bright.

The consumer confidence survey uses a base measure of 100, meaning that current consumer sentiment is still pessimistic based on historical measures. In fact, a higher percentage of consumers described current conditions as "bad." Furthermore, nearly 45% still perceived jobs as "hard to get."

Retailers are also cautious. During Kohl's (KSS - Snapshot Report) first-quarter conference call, CEO Kevin Mansell opined that he expects "the consumer to continue to be reluctant to spend".

Several other retailers used the word "challenging" when commenting on business conditions. For instance, Glenn Murphy, CEO of Gap Inc. (GPS - Analyst Report), observed that "the market conditions, from our perspective, continue to be challenging."

And those comments were from companies that analysts are raising profit forecasts on.

Still Some Good News

Not everything is bad. First-quarter profits for many retailers were better than feared. Same-store sales, though down, exceeded internal forecasts for companies like Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS - Snapshot Report).

Additionally, many retailers (e.g. Zumiez (ZUMZ - Analyst Report) effectively controlled inventory, which, in turn, helped margins.

2 Retailers With Growth

In the midst of this mixed news, there are 2 retailers with rising sales and higher earnings estimates.

The first is Buckle (BKE - Snapshot Report). The teen apparel retailer enjoyed a 24.6% increase in net sales. Behind this growth was a very impressive 17.7% increase in same-store sales. The higher sales led to first-quarter earnings of 58 cents per share - 9 cents better than the consensus estimate.

Following last week's report, 6 of the 10 covering analysts raised their full-year forecasts. The revisions caused the consensus earnings estimate to reach $2.65 per share, versus $2.56 last week and $2.46 two months ago.

BKE is a Zacks #1 Rank ("strong buy") stock.

The second is PetSmart (PETM - Analyst Report). The pet supply retailer saw first-quarter sales rise 9.5%, led by a 3.9% increase in same-store sales. Per share earnings totaled 37 cents, 7 cents above expectations.

The company also raised its full-year EPS guidance to between $1.42 and $1.52, two cents above its previous forecast. The majority of the 10 covering analysts revised their projections in response, sending the consensus earnings estimate 3 cents higher to $1.51 per share.

PETM is a Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stock.

Zacks Premium and Zacks Elite subscribers can view the Zacks Industry Rank List at http://www.zacks.com/zrank/zrank_inds.php. This interactive list allows you to see all of the companies, and their Zacks Rank, within more than 200 industries. Shown below is the Zacks Sector Rank List, which shows the trend in estimate revisions on a broader scale.

Charles Rotblut, CFA, is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.