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Losing Stock Guy: Why He Went Wrong

By Kevin Matras
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Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers

Top Performer for Friday: Ctrip.com (CTRP)

June 05, 2009 | Comments: 0
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Taking a trip may not be your first instinct during tough economic times, but that hasn't kept Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (CTRP - Analyst Report) from making the Zacks #1 Rank Top Performers List.

Shares of the company, which is kind of like a Chinese version of priceline.com, are up more than 7% Friday on volume of about 1.68 million, compared to the average of 1.97 million.

In mid May, CTRP reported solid first-quarter results, which has led to an increase in earnings estimates over the past 30 days.

Still Movin' Despite the Slowdown

CTRP was able to grow profit under difficult circumstances due to "strong execution in operations and prudent controls on cost".

Earnings per ADS reached 26 cents in the quarter, which was 30% better than the consensus at 20 cents. This marked the second straight quarter of better-than-expected profit, as the fourth quarter saw a surprise of more than 13%.

Net revenues advanced 18% year over year to US$59 million.

Earnings Estimates Reflect Good Quarter

Analysts responded to CTRP's report by raising estimates for the years ending December 2009 and December 2010. Expectations for this year are up 17.2% in the past 30 days as 5 of 8 covering analysts revised higher.

Next year's consensus has also advanced by 17.2% in that time. Analysts now expect $1.43 for the year, which currently marks a more than 30% improvement over this year's consensus of $1.09.

"While the business environment remains uncertain, we will extend our leadership in the China travel industry through excellent customer service, strategic alliance with our partners, advanced IT technologies and innovative sales and marketing channels," said CEO Min Fan.

Not Much Electronic Commerce on Zacks #1 Rank List

CTRP is part of the Electronic Commerce industry, and there is only 1 other company from that space on today's Zacks #1 Rank List, which includes 228 in total. Fittingly, the other company is priceline.com (PCLN - Analyst Report).


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