China Eastern Airlines (CEA)

We are maintaining our Underperform rating on China Eastern Airlines (CEA - Analyst Report). CEA reported 2009 first half earnings of RMB985 million, well above our estimate, reflecting a number of nonoperating items. These included gains of RMB831 million from an infrastructure levy refund and of RMB2,794 million on the fair value of fuel option contracts, partly offset by a RMB1,875 million decline in net exchange gains.

To shore up its balance sheet, China Eastern also announced the sale of up to RMB1.35 billion new A shares and 490 million new Hong Kong dollar-denominated H shares to parent, China Eastern Air Holding Co.

We continue to believe the fundamental outlook for airline carriers remains weak and a CEA/SAL tie-up will not change this. Both CEA and SAL shares are subject to special treatment, meaning that daily share price movements are limited to 5% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Moreover, the shares could be delisted should CEA and SAL continue to sustain losses in 2009.