Valero Energy (VLO)

We reiterate our Underperform rating for Valero Energy (VLO - Analyst Report) shares as a combination of weak demand, excess production capacity and narrowing crude quality spreads are expected to weigh on near-term margins.

In addition to the near-term margin issues, commissioning of new refineries and extension projects indicate future struggle as global demand for almost all fuel products (except gasoline) is trending down.

The medium- to long-term outlook also remains cloudy, with unfavorable regulatory changes (growing biofuel mandates) weighing on demand growth and limiting margin gains. Being the largest independent refiner, Valero remains particularly exposed to this unfavorable macro backdrop.