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Earnings Preview 12/7 - 12/11
Next week will be a light one on the earnings front, with a total of only 61 companies reporting, including 8 S&P 500 firms. Among the more noteworthy names reporting will be: Costco (COST - Analyst Report), National Semiconductor (NSM) and Kroger’s (KR - Analyst Report). It will also be a relatively light week as far as economic data is concerned.
Monday
• Consumer Credit is expected to have declined by $9.3 billion following a $14.8 billion decline last month. Declining consumer credit is unusual, but has been the norm so far this year as banks try to pull back on lending.
Tuesday
• Nothing worth talking about.
Wednesday
• Wholesale inventories are expected to have declined by 0.6% last month following a 0.9% decline in September. Eventually inventories will stop going down since they are already pretty lean and will start going back up. When that happens it will provide a powerful, though short-term, boost to the economy.
Thursday
• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. These have been in a steep downward trend of late, although still at historically high levels. Last week there were 457,000 initial claims. Look for the decline to continue.
• The highlight of the week will be the Trade Deficit numbers. They are expected to rise to 37.1 billion in October from $36.5 billion in September. The trade deficit has been trending higher in recent months after a very steep drop last winter. That decline happened because imports fell off a cliff faster than exports declined. The more recent increase has happened as imports rise faster than exports.
• The fiscal budget deficit for November is expected to be $135.0 billion, down from $176.5 billion in October. However, that number is highly seasonal, so the month-to-month difference is not all that meaningful. A year ago, the deficit was $237.2 billion in October and $164.4 billion in November. Thus, if the consensus projections come true, the federal deficit is actually coming down sharply (funny what happens when you look at actual data rather than listening to TV pundits).
Friday
• Total Retail Sales for November are expected to have increased by 0.5% following a 1.4% increase in October (seasonally adjusted).
• Excluding Autos, retail sales are expected to have risen by 0.5% in November following a 0.2% increase in October.
Potential Positive Surprises
Historically, the best indicators of firms likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. The Zacks Rank is also a good indicator of potential surprises. Some of the companies that have these characteristics include:
National Semiconductor (NSM) - National Semi is expected to post EPS of $0.14, unchanged from last year. That low expectation sets it up for a positive surprise. Last time out they beat by 100%. The mean estimate of those earnings has increased by 2.01% over the last month over the last month and the stock has a neutral Zacks Rank of 3.
Costco (COST - Analyst Report) - While the warehouse club chain is expected to post earnings of $0.59, down from $0.65 a year ago, it did post a positive surprise of 7.79% last time out, and the mean estimate for the quarter is up 0.81% over the last month. The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 2.
Potential Negative Surprises
In keeping with the overall very positive tone of this earnings season, the potential negative firms are less clear cut. However:
H&R Block (HRB - Analyst Report) is expected to post a loss of $0.40 a share, even with its loss a year ago (not a lot of people do their taxes in the fall). Last time they disappointed by 5.41%. The mean estimate for the quarter is unchanged over the last month and the stock has a neutral Zacks Rank of 3.
Pall Corp (PLL - Analyst Report) is expected to report EPS of $0.40, even with a year ago. While the company did post a positive surprise of 9.62% last quarter, the mean estimate has been cut by 6.08% over the last month and the stock has a negative Zacks Rank of 4.
Earnings Calendar
Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com. With more than 25 years investment experience he has become a popular commentator appearing in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. Dirk is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Strategic Investor service.
Next week will be a light one on the earnings front, with a total of only 61 companies reporting, including 8 S&P 500 firms. Among the more noteworthy names reporting will be: Costco (COST - Analyst Report), National Semiconductor (NSM) and Kroger’s (KR - Analyst Report). It will also be a relatively light week as far as economic data is concerned.
Monday
• Consumer Credit is expected to have declined by $9.3 billion following a $14.8 billion decline last month. Declining consumer credit is unusual, but has been the norm so far this year as banks try to pull back on lending.
Tuesday
• Nothing worth talking about.
Wednesday
• Wholesale inventories are expected to have declined by 0.6% last month following a 0.9% decline in September. Eventually inventories will stop going down since they are already pretty lean and will start going back up. When that happens it will provide a powerful, though short-term, boost to the economy.
Thursday
• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. These have been in a steep downward trend of late, although still at historically high levels. Last week there were 457,000 initial claims. Look for the decline to continue.
• The highlight of the week will be the Trade Deficit numbers. They are expected to rise to 37.1 billion in October from $36.5 billion in September. The trade deficit has been trending higher in recent months after a very steep drop last winter. That decline happened because imports fell off a cliff faster than exports declined. The more recent increase has happened as imports rise faster than exports.
• The fiscal budget deficit for November is expected to be $135.0 billion, down from $176.5 billion in October. However, that number is highly seasonal, so the month-to-month difference is not all that meaningful. A year ago, the deficit was $237.2 billion in October and $164.4 billion in November. Thus, if the consensus projections come true, the federal deficit is actually coming down sharply (funny what happens when you look at actual data rather than listening to TV pundits).
Friday
• Total Retail Sales for November are expected to have increased by 0.5% following a 1.4% increase in October (seasonally adjusted).
• Excluding Autos, retail sales are expected to have risen by 0.5% in November following a 0.2% increase in October.
Potential Positive Surprises
Historically, the best indicators of firms likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. The Zacks Rank is also a good indicator of potential surprises. Some of the companies that have these characteristics include:
National Semiconductor (NSM) - National Semi is expected to post EPS of $0.14, unchanged from last year. That low expectation sets it up for a positive surprise. Last time out they beat by 100%. The mean estimate of those earnings has increased by 2.01% over the last month over the last month and the stock has a neutral Zacks Rank of 3.
Costco (COST - Analyst Report) - While the warehouse club chain is expected to post earnings of $0.59, down from $0.65 a year ago, it did post a positive surprise of 7.79% last time out, and the mean estimate for the quarter is up 0.81% over the last month. The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 2.
Potential Negative Surprises
In keeping with the overall very positive tone of this earnings season, the potential negative firms are less clear cut. However:
H&R Block (HRB - Analyst Report) is expected to post a loss of $0.40 a share, even with its loss a year ago (not a lot of people do their taxes in the fall). Last time they disappointed by 5.41%. The mean estimate for the quarter is unchanged over the last month and the stock has a neutral Zacks Rank of 3.
Pall Corp (PLL - Analyst Report) is expected to report EPS of $0.40, even with a year ago. While the company did post a positive surprise of 9.62% last quarter, the mean estimate has been cut by 6.08% over the last month and the stock has a negative Zacks Rank of 4.
Earnings Calendar
| Company | Stock | Zacks Estimate | Year Ago EPS | Last Qtr Surprise | Date | Time | Price |
| BLYTH INC | BTH - Snapshot Report | $0.28 | $0.80 | (102.9%) | 12/7 | BTO | $33.10 |
| CASEYS GEN STRS | CASY - Snapshot Report | $0.61 | $0.54 | 45.0% | 12/7 | AMC | $29.93 |
| CHINA MASS-ADR | CMM | $0.01 | $0.12 | (100.0%) | 12/7 | BTO | $2.96 |
| FOCUS MEDIA HLD | FMCN - Snapshot Report | $0.00 | $0.45 | (300.0%) | 12/7 | AMC | $14.16 |
| GERBER SCIENTIF | GRB | $0.04 | $0.11 | 400.0% | 12/7 | BTO | $5.00 |
| INTEGRAL SYS/MD | ISYS | $0.03 | N/A | 66.7% | 12/7 | $8.99 | |
| KMG CHEMICALS | KMGB - Snapshot Report | $0.36 | $0.14 | 29.4% | 12/7 | BTO | $18.97 |
| LAYNE CHRISTENS | LAYN - Snapshot Report | $0.21 | $0.63 | 91.7% | 12/7 | BTO | $25.84 |
| WINNER MED GRP | WWIN - Snapshot Report | $0.13 | $0.06 | 75.00% | 12/7 | $5.50 | |
| AEROVIRONMENT | AVAV - Snapshot Report | $0.05 | $0.41 | (230.8%) | 12/8 | AMC | $29.73 |
| AUTOZONE INC | AZO - Analyst Report | $2.66 | $2.23 | (0.5%) | 12/8 | BTO | $151.40 |
| BROWN FORMAN B | BF.B - Analyst Report | $0.83 | $0.94 | 28.6% | 12/8 | BTO | $50.29 |
| CKE RESTAURANTS | CKR | $0.16 | $0.10 | (4.6%) | 12/8 | AMC | $8.48 |
| COMTECH TELECOM | CMTL - Snapshot Report | $0.22 | $1.02 | 16.7% | 12/8 | AMC | $29.26 |
| COOPER COS | COO - Analyst Report | $0.58 | $0.65 | (12.9%) | 12/8 | AMC | $34.08 |
| BLOCK H & R | HRB - Analyst Report | ($0.40) | ($0.40) | (5.4%) | 12/8 | BTO | $20.21 |
| IMPERIAL SUGAR | IPSU - Snapshot Report | $0.14 | ($0.46) | 51.3% | 12/8 | BTO | $17.14 |
| KORN/FERRY INTL | KFY - Snapshot Report | ($0.01) | $0.30 | 16.7% | 12/8 | BTO | $17.08 |
| KROGER CO | KR - Analyst Report | $0.37 | $0.39 | (11.4%) | 12/8 | BTO | $22.24 |
| MULTIMEDIA GAME | MGAM - Snapshot Report | ($0.08) | $0.06 | 66.7% | 12/8 | BTO | $5.35 |
| MITCHAM INDS | MIND - Snapshot Report | ($0.01) | $0.27 | (11.1%) | 12/8 | AMC | $6.92 |
| VAIL RESORTS | MTN - Snapshot Report | ($1.25) | ($0.93) | 2.7% | 12/8 | BTO | $39.28 |
| MENS WEARHOUSE | MW - Snapshot Report | $0.34 | $0.30 | 27.1% | 12/8 | AMC | $20.51 |
| PEP BOYS M M &J | PBY - Snapshot Report | $0.04 | ($0.14) | 0.0% | 12/8 | BTO | $8.56 |
| PHOTRONICS INC | PLAB - Snapshot Report | ($0.07) | $0.01 | 31.6% | 12/8 | N/A | $4.40 |
| SANDERSON FARMS | SAFM - Snapshot Report | $0.93 | ($1.06) | 16.8% | 12/8 | BTO | $42.20 |
| SAIC INC | SAI - Snapshot Report | $0.33 | $0.29 | 3.3% | 12/8 | AMC | $17.64 |
| TALBOTS INC | TLB - Snapshot Report | ($0.16) | ($0.28) | 38.5% | 12/8 | BTO | $6.62 |
| TORO CO | TTC - Snapshot Report | ($0.11) | $0.08 | 35.3% | 12/8 | BTO | $40.73 |
| ANALOGIC CORP | ALOG - Snapshot Report | $0.20 | $0.10 | (56.5%) | 12/9 | AMC | $38.90 |
| CANTEL MED CORP | CMN - Snapshot Report | $0.26 | $0.22 | 18.2% | 12/9 | BTO | $18.15 |
| FUELCELL ENERGY | FCEL - Snapshot Report | ($0.19) | ($0.35) | 16.0% | 12/9 | AMC | $3.31 |
| GREIF BROS-CL A | GEF - Snapshot Report | $1.52 | $1.27 | 2.3% | 12/9 | AMC | $57.20 |
| HOOKER FURNITUR | HOFT - Snapshot Report | $0.08 | $0.24 | (171.4%) | 12/9 | $11.92 | |
| HARRY WINSTON | HWD - Snapshot Report | ($0.23) | $1.17 | (540.0%) | 12/9 | N/A | $9.96 |
| INNOVATIVE SOLU | ISSC - Snapshot Report | $0.01 | ($0.12) | 0.0% | 12/9 | AMC | $4.31 |
| JACKSON HEWITT | JTX | ($0.75) | ($0.72) | 2.9% | 12/9 | BTO | $4.10 |
| LULULEMON ATHLT | LULU - Snapshot Report | $0.19 | $0.13 | 30.0% | 12/9 | AMC | $25.92 |
| MOVADO GRP INC | MOV - Snapshot Report | $0.62 | $0.53 | 126.1% | 12/9 | BTO | $10.38 |
| OXFORD INDS INC | OXM - Snapshot Report | $0.18 | $0.38 | 50.0% | 12/9 | AMC | $21.30 |
| PALL CORP | PLL - Analyst Report | $0.40 | $0.40 | 9.6% | 12/9 | AMC | $31.51 |
| POWELL INDS | POWL - Snapshot Report | $0.68 | $0.72 | 40.0% | 12/9 | BTO | $36.27 |
| BWAY HOLDING CO | BWY | $0.39 | $0.33 | 40.5% | 12/10 | $16.11 | |
| CIENA CORP | CIEN - Analyst Report | ($0.16) | ($0.18) | 76.2% | 12/10 | BTO | $12.11 |
| COSTCO WHOLE CP | COST - Analyst Report | $0.59 | $0.65 | 7.8% | 12/10 | BTO | $59.02 |
| CPI INTL INC | CPII | $0.23 | $0.34 | 22.2% | 12/10 | AMC | $9.61 |
| DOLLAR GENERAL | DG - Snapshot Report | $0.25 | N/A | N/A | 12/10 | BTO | $23.31 |
| ESTERLINE | ESL - Snapshot Report | $0.99 | $1.38 | 10.0% | 12/10 | AMC | $41.52 |
| FIFTH STREET FI | FSC - Snapshot Report | $0.26 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 12/10 | BTO | $9.79 |
| GILDAN ACTVWEAR | GIL - Snapshot Report | $0.34 | $0.41 | 27.6% | 12/10 | BTO | $20.05 |
| INVESTORS RL ES | IRET - Snapshot Report | $0.20 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 12/10 | AMC | $9.04 |
| WILEY (JOHN) A | JW.A - Snapshot Report | $0.81 | $0.67 | 18.4% | 12/10 | BTO | $37.65 |
| LAKELAND INDS | LAKE - Snapshot Report | $0.03 | $0.25 | (100.0%) | 12/10 | N/A | $7.24 |
| LEARNING TREE | LTRE - Snapshot Report | $0.12 | $0.17 | 87.5% | 12/10 | AMC | $11.66 |
| METHODE ELECT-A | MEI - Snapshot Report | ($0.02) | $0.15 | 141.7% | 12/10 | BTO | $7.82 |
| NAVISITE INC | NAVI | ($0.07) | ($0.10) | 18.2% | 12/10 | AMC | $1.89 |
| NATL SEMICON | NSM | $0.14 | $0.14 | 100.0% | 12/10 | AMC | $15.40 |
| SMITHFIELD FOOD | SFD - Analyst Report | ($0.37) | ($0.21) | (1.8%) | 12/10 | BTO | $15.80 |
| TITAN MACHINERY | TITN - Snapshot Report | $0.32 | $0.45 | 50.0% | 12/10 | BTO | $11.85 |
| UTD NATURAL FDS | UNFI - Analyst Report | $0.36 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 12/10 | BTO | $25.75 |
| WILLIAMS CTRLS | WMCO - Snapshot Report | $0.00 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 12/10 | $8.30 |
Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com. With more than 25 years investment experience he has become a popular commentator appearing in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. Dirk is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Strategic Investor service.
Read the full analyst report on NSM
Read the full analyst report on PLL
Read the full analyst report on KR
Read the full analyst report on COST
Read the full analyst report on HRB
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