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- Done with second quarter earnings season, attention now shifts to the third quarter. Total earnings growth low at 11.9%. Ex-Financials growth is 19.4% year over year. Total revenue growth 11.1%, 13.2% ex-Financials. Median earnings surprise 3.01% and median sales surprise 1.80%.
- At the start of earnings season 9.7% growth expected, 12.2% ex-Financials. Current year-over-year earnings growth of 11.40% expected for EPS in the third quarter, 11.35% ex-Financials. For revenues, 5.59% and 9.18% ex-Financials.
- Second quarter earnings beats top misses by 3.43 ratio, sales beats top misses by 2.48 ratio, 69.3% of firms report earnings beats, 70.5% beat on revenues. Growing earnings firms outpace declining earnings by 3.16 ratio, revenues 5.16 growth ratio.
- Full-year total earnings for the S&P 500 jumps 45.9% in 2010, expected to rise 15.3% further in 2011. Growth to continue in 2012 with total net income expected to rise 14.0%. Financials major earnings driver in 2010. Excluding Financials growth was 27.7% in 2010, and expected to be 18.5% in 2011 and 11.0% in 2012.
- Total revenues for the S&P 500 rise 7.88% in 2010, expected to be up 7.56% in 2011, and 5.19% in 2012. Excluding Financials, revenues up 9.16% in 2010, expected to rise 11.42% in 2011 and 5.23% in 2012.
- Annual Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.37% in 2009 to 8.62% for 2010, 9.24% expected for 2011 and 10.01% in 2012. Margin Expansion major source of earnings growth. Net margins ex-Financials 7.79% in 2008, 7.04% in 2009, 8.23% for 2010, 8.76% expected in 2011, and 9.24% in 2012.
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 0.52 for 2011, at 0.37 for 2012 (both very bearish). Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 0.64 for 2011, 0.43 (both also very bearish) for 2012. Total revisions activity past peak and plunging.
- S&P 500 earned $543.6 billion in 2009, rising to $792.6 billion in 2010, expected to climb to $914.1 billion in 2011. In 2012 the 500 are collectively expected to earn $1.042 trillion.
- S&P 500 earned $56.95 in 2009: $83.10 in 2010 and $95.81 in 2011 expected bottom up. For 2012, $109.22 expected. Puts P/Es at 14.55x for 2010, and 12.62x for 2011 and 11.05x for 2012, very attractive relative to 10-year T-note rate of 2.05%. Top down estimates, $95.91 for 2011 and $104.59 for 2012.
The Earnings Picture
Second quarter earnings season is over; the attention now shifts to the third quarter. With the exception of a handful of financials, most notably Bank of America (BAC - Analyst Report), which had a $12 billion negative swing in net income from last year, this has been another great earnings season.
The year-over-year growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.9%, way off the 17.1% pace posted in the first quarter. However, it you exclude the financial sector, growth is 19.3%, actually up slightly from the 19.1% pace of the first quarter. At the beginning of earnings season, growth of 9.7% was expected, 12.2% ex-financials.
The outlook for the third quarter now looks very similar to the outlook for the second quarter three months ago, with net income growth of 11.4% expected for both the total and excluding the financials. We will need another season where positive earnings surprises far outpace disappointments if we are going to match the second quarter growth rate. On the top line, growth is also expected to slow sharply, to 5.59% in total from 11.05% in the second quarter, and excluding the financials to 9.18% from 13.16%.
Net Margin Forecast
Expanding net margins have been one of the keys to earnings growth. In the second quarter, total net margins were 9.14%, and excluding financials they were 9.13%, up from 9.10% and 7.95 ex-financials in the second quarter of 2010. In the third quarter, the financials net margins are expected to recover (we will see about that -- depends on the level of net charge-offs at the banks, which are sort of hard to predict).
Thus, total net margins are expected to rise to 9.60%, while excluding financials they are expected to drop to 8.94%. Then again, revenue growth is expected to be much lower for the financials.
On an annual basis, net margins continue to march northward. In 2008, overall net margins were just 5.88%, rising to 6.37% in 2009. They hit 8.62% in 2010 and are expected to continue climbing to 9.24% in 2011 and 10.01% in 2012. The pattern is a bit different, particularly during the recession, if the financials are excluded, as margins fell from 7.78% in 2008 to 7.04% in 2009, but have started a robust recovery and rose to 8.23% in 2010. They are expected to rise to 8.76% in 2011 and 9.24% in 2012.
The expectations for the full year are very healthy, with total net income for 2010 rising to $793.0 billion in 2010, up from $543.6 billion in 2009. In 2011, the total net income for the S&P 500 should be $914.1 billion, or increases of 45.9% and 15.3%, respectively.
The expectation is for 2012 to have total net income passing the $1 Trillion mark to $1.042 Trillion, for growth of 14.0%. That will also put the “EPS for the S&P 500 over the $100 “per share level for the first time at $109.22. That is up from $56.95 for 2009, $83.10 for 2010 and $95.81 for 2011.
In an environment where the 10-year T-note is yielding 2.05%, a P/E of 14.6x based on 2010 and 12.6x based on 2011 earnings looks attractive. The P/E based on 2012 earnings is 11.1x.
Estimate Revisions Near Seasonal Low
Estimate revisions activity is near a seasonal low. What has really been drying up is estimate increases, as those made immediately after the second quarter positive earnings surprise roll-off the four-week moving total I track. The number of cuts has also declined, but not nearly as sharply and as a result the ratio of increases to cuts is now at a very bearish level of 0.52.
This has been very widespread; the ratio of firms with rising mean estimates to falling is down to 0.64 for this year and to 0.43 for next year, and almost every sector has more cuts than increases for both this year and next (the one exception is a tie in the Auto industry for this year, but on an extremely small sample).
In light of the generally downbeat economic news, it is not surprising that we are not seeing a lot of estimate increases without the catalyst of positive earnings surprises. During slow revisions periods, the revisions ratio is generally less significant that during periods of high activity, but that does not mean that it should be ignored completely, and it is flashing a yellow caution light pretty brightly now.
The strong earnings performance we have seen, particularly in large multinational company earnings (like most of the S&P 500 I track in this report) is the single most important argument in the bulls' favor (along with the low valuations based on those earnings). Thus if that starts to crack in a big way, it would be a very big concern.
Recap of Key Data and Events
The economic news this week was mostly, but not entirely, on the downbeat side. Retail sales came in flat for the month, below expectations for a 0.2% increase, and July’s numbers were revised down. The government’s tally of auto sales was lighter than one would have expected based on what the auto companies reported, and the numbers for ex-autos also came in lighter than expected, rising 0.1% rather than the 0.3% the consensus was looking for.
We did get some somewhat better than expected news from the report on industrial production and capacity utilization, particularly if one backs out the weather related effects on utility output. The absolute numbers were not great, but still moving in the right direction and it was better than expected.
On the other hand, inflation ran a bit hotter than expected, mostly due to gasoline prices. The headline CPI rise 0.4% in August, rather than the 02% rise that was expected. However, if food and energy are stripped out, prices rose only 0.2%, in line with expectations.
Fed Meeting Coming Up
The higher headline number will probably give ammunition to those on the Fed who don’t want it to do any more to ease monetary policy. The Fed is deeply divided, and it having a two-day meeting this week to hash things out. The statement due out on Wednesday afternoon will be carefully parsed for clues as to its future direction. One of the key details will be the number of members who dissent. Last time there were three, an unusually high number.
Initial Claims for jobless benefits rose again, to 428,000. Some of that might been due to Hurricane Irene, but even so, it is not a very good sign. We really need to see that number fall below the 400,000 level to indicate the job market is returning to health. Given the severity of the jobs crisis, it will take some time to heal, even after we get below that level, and we are moving in the wrong direction. This is not a good sign.
American Jobs Act
I seriously doubt that the “American Jobs Act which Obama proposed last week will pass. Thus we are not going to get a lot of help from fiscal policy in bringing down unemployment. The GOP in the House is simply too fixated on bringing down the deficit to spend anything on getting job growth going again, even though the vast bulk of the package is tax cuts. However, it would largely be paid for by other tax increases.
The shift in the tax burden makes a lot of sense to me. It would eliminate lots of special interest deductions that mostly benefit the very top of the income distribution, and provide a boost to the take-home pay for the vast majority of workers. It would do so by increasing the size of the payroll tax cut from 2% of the first $106,800 someone earns to 3% on the individual side, and also introduce cuts in the payroll tax on the employer side, particularly targeted at small businesses. For the median household (including households of one) that would mean about $500 more in after tax income than in 2011.
In contrast, if nothing is done the 2011 payroll tax cut will expire, and the median household will have $1,000 less to spend. That would be a huge hit to consumer demand (about 70% of the economy) and would result in even more unemployment.
While small businesses and their owners are often referred to as the "job creators," that is not really the case. Yes, historically most new paychecks have been signed by the owners of small businesses, but no business -- large of small -- is going to hire people if they don’t think that there are customers for their goods or services. It is customers who are the job creators, not businesses.
It is uncertainty about the number of customers, not about taxes or regulations, which are keeping businesses from hiring. We learned this week that in 2010, real median income dropped 2.3% from 2009 levels and is now 6.4% below where it was at the start of the Great Recession and 7.1% below its 1999 peak. We also learned that the poverty rate rose to 15.1% in 2010 from 14.3% in 2009, and from 12.5% in 2007 before the start of the Great Recession. People in poverty do not make great customers, and thus are not very good job creators.
Austerity Measures and the "Super Committee"
The thrust of the “American Jobs Act runs directly counter to the thrust of debt-ceiling deal. The “Super Committee of six Democrats and six Republicans which is charged with coming up with $1.5 Trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade is on the road to failure.
If it cannot come up with an agreement by November 23rd, or if Congress does not pass the package by December 23rd, then automatic spending cuts of $1.2 Trillion kick in. Half of those would be to defense, and half to non-defense (mostly discretionary) spending. That is a "meat cleaver" approach and will be front end loaded, with big cuts starting in 2013.
There are three entitlements that really matter in the budget: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Social Security has its own dedicated tax, and since 1983 that tax has provided more revenues than Social Security has paid out. The difference was invested in the safest possible security: U.S. government bonds.
The Social Security Trust Fund created by that excess now stands at $2.7 Trillion. It is a substantial portion of the $14.8 trillion federal debt, but it is debt that the government in effect owes to itself. Under the medium economic assumptions, it is able to pay out all benefits as scheduled until 2037, and thereafter can pay out 78% of scheduled benefits forever. Because the benefits are tied to average wages rather than to inflation, the real value of that 78% is expected to be higher than the current beneficiaries get.
The payroll tax is a highly regressive tax, one levied on the very first dollar of income someone makes, but stopping for earnings after $106,800. Thus high income workers see a jump in their take-home pay after their earnings for the year have passed the threshold. By building up the trust fund, lower-income workers have in effect been subsidizing the rest of the budget.
The bulk of what we think of as the Federal Government; the Pentagon, the Federal Court System, and the complete alphabet soup of agencies are theoretically paid for out of other taxes, most notably the income tax, both individual and corporate. The budget deficit numbers you hear bandied about are the combination of both Social Security and the rest of Government. Thus, since the Social Security system has been running a surplus, the deficit from the rest of Government is actually much larger than advertized.
While the overall budget has been in deficit almost always since at least the 1930’s, generally until 1980 (with the big exception of WWII) it has been a lower percentage of GDP than the growth rate of GDP. Thus it is easily rolled over, and as a share of the economy it is shrinking.
Cutting Medicare and Medicaid
That leaves Medicare and Medicaid as the only places where there is enough spending to really cut $1.5 Trillion. There are really two ways to cut those programs, either reducing who they cover, or what they cover. I favor the latter approach. That, however, would mean that the programs would have to be able to determine which medical procedures were both effective medically, and which were also cost effective.
The ACA started to move in that direction, but was met with cries of “death panels," and overly intrusive government involvement in health care decisions. On the other hand, if we start reducing who is covered, say by increasing to 67 from 65 the age at which you can get Medicare, the number of people without health insurance at all will skyrocket. As it is, 16.3% of all Americans, or almost 50 million people, have no health insurance coverage at all. That is up from 16.1% in 2009.
Because of Medicare, though, very few people over age 65 are without coverage. The uninsured rate is 18.4% for those under 65, up from 18.2% in 2009. It is estimated that over 40,000 people die each year in this country because they lack any access to health care (other than emergency rooms, which are very expensive and ultimately paid by tax payers, and don’t tend to catch longer-term health issues). For more on the poverty report see here.
If taxes are off the table entirely, then I think that we will end up with the Super Committee in a stalemate, and we will get the $1.2 Trillion in meat-cleaver cuts. That is not going to raise anybody’s confidence and will be a body blow to the economy.
Yet the Markets Went Higher
Despite the generally bad economic news, the market was up every day last week. I think it was mostly due to the valuations simply being too compelling to ignore. It has been a very long time (with the exception of the very depths of the financial crisis) since the dividend yield on the S&P 500 was higher than the 10-year T-note. Money has to be parked somewhere, and equities look a lot more attractive to me than bonds -- especially government bonds -- or real estate.
We also got some better news on the European front. I would not count on that lasting, though. Perhaps the can might be kicked down the road a little bit further, but it strikes me that Greece is bound to default, and that the Euro is destined to fail as a common currency. What really is in doubt is when, not if.
Pricing In Another Recession
At these levels it is clear to me that the market is pricing in not just slower growth, but an outright recession, either underway or just about to get underway. If it turns out that we avoid an outright recession, and the decline in profits that usually comes with one, then the market should rally from here.
As I noted above, the expectations are starting to come down, particularly for 2012, but the vast majority of stocks, and every economic sector is expected to earn more in 2012 than in 2011. The decline in the revisions ratio is mostly driven right now by the drying up of new estimate increases, rather than a flood of new estimate cuts. It is entirely normal at this point seasonally for overall revisions activity to slow down dramatically.
Of Euros, PIIGS and Unscrambling Eggs
The demise of the Euro has the potential for enormous dislocations, and hence big damage to the European economy. That would inevitably spill over to the U.S. If it were just Greece, perhaps the damage could be contained, as it really is not that big. However, there are still big concerns about the rest of the PIIGS.
The economy of Greece, in particular, but also for the rest of the periphery of Europe continue to weaken, and with that weakness tax revenues are drying up even more, and the country is missing the fiscal targets it agreed to just a few months ago.
Ultimately, one of two things is going to have to happen: Either fiscal policy will have to be consolidated in Europe as a whole (which means that the individual countries will have to give up most of their sovereignty -- essentially Italy will have to become like Florida, and Germany like California), or the common Euro currency has to fall apart. Italy and Greece, unlike the U.S. do not have their own printing press (hence when they get downgraded, their interest rates soar, not sink like here). They have to rely on the printing press of the ECB, and that is largely controlled by the Germans.
The process of unscrambling the Euro egg and going back to Drachmas and Lira would be a very messy one, and will result in huge dislocations, and thus could potentially cause economic collapse. Most of the proposals that would integrate Europe fiscally would take a long time, and would probably require not just passage by each of the 17 parliaments that use the Euro, but probably changes in their constitutions as well.
That is not going to happen overnight. It also means that it is highly unlikely that the Euro, the second-most-important currency in the world, is going to strengthen dramatically against the dollar.
European banks are heavily invested in the bonds of the PIIGS, and there is a real threat to the stability of the European banking system. If the European banking system goes down, ours will follow as night follows day (or at the very least we will need to see "Son of TARP"). This is not a problem caused here, and is not the fault of Obama, or GW Bush, or Congress or even the Tea Party, for that matter. It is a mess of the Europeans own making, but its effects will be felt here, just as the effects of the mortgage mess of our making were felt there.
Stay Invested but Don’t Shoot for the Stars
On balance I remain bullish. My year-end target remains at 1325 for the S&P 500. Getting there is going to be a bumpy ride. Strong earnings should trump a dicey international situation and the drama in DC. Valuations on stocks look very compelling, with the S&P trading from just 12.6x 2011, and 11.1x 2012 earnings.
Put in terms of earnings yields, we are looking at 7.92% and 9.03%, while T-notes are only at 2.05%. The old “Fed Model suggested that the forward earnings yield (call it 8.45%) should be in line with the 10-year note. Instead we have the dividend yield on the S&P 500 higher than the 10-year.
Since the early 1950’s that has happened only twice, in early November of 2008 and in March of 2009. The second incident was followed by a doubling of the S&P 500. From a long-term perspective, stocks look extremely undervalued to me.
Long-term investors should start to take advantage of the current valuations. However, I would not be shooting for the stars. Look for those companies with solid dividends (say, over 2.5%), low payout ratios, solid balance sheets and a history of rising dividends, which are still seeing analysts raise their estimates for 2012, or are at least not cutting them aggressively.
Currently, firms like Abbott Labs (ABT - Analyst Report), Aflac (AFL - Analyst Report), Genuine Parts (GPC - Analyst Report) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - Analyst Report) would fit that description. I don’t know if you will be happy doing so next week or even next month, but I am pretty sure that you will be quite satisfied five years from now if you do so.
Scorecard & Earnings Surprise
- Another great earnings season done. Total growth looks low at 11.85%, but that is entirely due to a handful of financials). We have a 3.43 surprise ratio, and 3.01% median surprise. Positive Surprises for 69.3% of all firms reporting.
- Positive year over year growth for 377, falling EPS for 119 firms, 3.16 ratio, 75.4% of all firms reporting have higher EPS than last year.
- This is the final tally for the second quarter, next week will start the third quarter scorecard.
- Autos, Discretionary and Tech lead in surprise, Transports, Industrials lag, but every sector has more positive surprises than disappointments.
|Income Surprises|| Yr/Yr |
| % |
| Surprise |
| EPS |
| EPS |
| # |
|Computer and Tech||24.53%||100.00%||5.21||51||16||54||18|
|Oils and Energy||41.07%||100.00%||4.17||28||11||33||8|
- Strong revenue growth of 11.00% among the 499 that have reported, median surprise 1.80 (very strong), surprise ratio of 2.48. Positive surprise for 70.5%.
- Growing Revenues outnumber falling revenues by ratio of 5.16, 83.8% have higher sales than last year.
- Autos and Energy have biggest median surprises, but Energy Surprise ratio is below average.
- Aerospace only sector with more disappointments than positive surprises.
|Sales Surprises|| Yr/Yr |
| % |
| Surprise |
| Sales |
| Sales |
| # |
|Oils and Energy||28.47%||100.00%||5.101||28||13||36||5|
|Computer and Tech||16.11%||100.00%||1.261||49||23||62||10|
Given that only one firm has reported its third quarter results, I have eliminated the Quarterly “Reported Tables for Earnings, Revenues and Margins.
Expected Quarterly Growth: Total Net Income
- Total net income is expected to be 11.40% above what was reported in the third quarter of 2010, down from 11.85% growth in the second quarter. Excluding Financials, growth of 11.35%, up slightly from 19.41% reported in the second quarter.
- Relative to the second quarter total net income to rise 0.54%, ex-Financials to fall 4.78%.
- Construction to lead the way (low base in 2010), followed by Energy and Materials.
- Four sectors see earnings accelerate from second quarter, 12 see slowing growth.
- Total net income of $233.3 billion versus $207.5 billion year ago, $232.1 billion in second quarter.
|Income Growth||"Sequential Q4/Q3 E"||"Sequential Q3/Q2 E"||Year over Year 3Q 11 A||Year over Year 4Q 11 E||Year over Year 2Q 11 A|
|Oils and Energy||3.56%||-5.72%||49.83%||33.68%||41.07%|
|Computer and Tech||18.36%||-8.05%||5.05%||5.68%||24.53%|
Quarterly Growth: Total Revenues Expected
- Revenue growth expected to fall to 5.50%, from the 11.05% growth posted in the second quarter. Growth ex-Financials 9.18%, down from 13.16%.
- Sequentially revenues 4.13% lower than in the second quarter, down 2.39% ex-Financials.
- Energy, Materials, Industrials and Transports all expecting revenue growth over 10%, Finance, Utilities, Aerospace and Staples to see year-over-year drop in revenues.
- Revenue growth expected to slow sharply in fourth quarter falling to 3.60%, 7.52% ex-Financials.
|Sales Growth||Sequential Q4/Q3 E||Sequential Q3/Q2 E||Year over Year 3Q 11 A||Year over Year 4Q 11 E||Year over Year 2Q 11 A|
|Oils and Energy||-3.94%||-9.17%||25.97%||12.00%||28.47%|
|Computer and Tech||4.60%||-0.17%||5.90%||0.05%||16.11%|
Quarterly Net Margins Expected
- Sector and S&P net margins are calculated as total net income for the sector divided by total revenues for the sector.
- Net margins expected to rise to 9.60% from 9.10% a year ago, and up from 9.14% in the second quarter. Net margins ex-Financials rise to 8.94% from 8.76% a year ago and 9.13% in the first quarter.
- Eight sectors see year-over-year margin expansion, eight expected to see contraction.
- Margin expansion the key driver behind earnings growth. Due to seasonality, it is best to compare to a year ago, particularly at the individual company and sector levels. Mix of companies reporting will lead to big changes in both the reported and expected net margin tables from week to week.
|Net Margins||Q4 2011 Expected||Q3 2011 Expected||2Q 2011 Reported||1Q 2011 Reported||4Q 2010 Reported||3Q 2010 Reported|
|Computer and Tech||15.62%||17.00%||16.35%||17.54%||16.51%||15.81%|
|Oils and Energy||8.63%||8.57%||8.38%||7.72%||7.19%||7.81%|
Annual Total Net Income Growth
- Following a rise of just 2.0% in 2009, total earnings for the S&P 500 jumped 45.9% in 2010, 15.3% further expected in 2011. Growth ex-Financials 27.7% in 2010, 18.5% in 2011.
- For 2012, 14.0% growth expected. 11.0% ex-Financials.
- All sectors expected to see total net income rise in 2011 and in 2012. Utilities only (small) decliner in 2010. Ten sectors expected to post double-digit growth in 2011 and twelve in 2012. No sector expected to grow less than 5% in 2012.
- Cyclical/Commodity sectors expected to lead in earnings growth again in 2011 and into 2012. Materials expected to grow over 40% for second year; Energy also strong.
- Sector dispersion of earnings growth narrows dramatically between 2010 and 2012, only three sectors expected to grow more than 20% in 2012, seven grew more than 35% in 2010.
|Net Income Growth||2009||2010||2011||2012|
|Oils and Energy||-54.98%||49.80%||39.96%||11.41%|
|Computer and Tech||-4.86%||46.67%||21.58%||10.76%|
|Auto||- to +||1470.14%||18.59%||8.04%|
|Construction||- to -||- to +||1.23%||53.18%|
|Finance||- to +||316.10%||0.71%||29.98%|
Annual Total Revenue Growth
- Total S&P 500 revenue in 2010 rose 7.78% above 2009 levels, a rebound from a 6.33% 2009 decline.
- Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 7.56% in 2011, 5.19% in 2012.
- Energy to lead revenue race in 2011. Six other sectors (all cyclical) also expected to show double-digit revenue growth in 2011.
- All sectors but Staples and Finance expected to show positive top-line growth in 2011, but five sectors expected to show positive growth below 5%. All sectors see 2012 growth, but only Construction and Industrials seen in double digits.
- Aerospace the only sector to post lower top line for 2010. Revenues for Financials, Construction, and Conglomerates were virtually unchanged.
- The widespread revenue gains are not consistent with the idea of a double-dip recession, particularly In a low inflation environment.
- Revenue growth significantly different if Financials are excluded, down 10.56% in 2009 but growth of 9.16% in 2010, 11.42% in 2011 and 5.23% in 2012.
|Oils and Energy||-34.41%||23.15%||24.73%||4.51%|
|Computer and Tech||-6.24%||15.53%||13.30%||9.64%|
Annual Net Margins
- Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.37% in 2009 to 8.62% for 2010, 9.24% expected for 2011. Trend expected to continue into 2012 with net margins of 10.01% expected. Major source of earnings growth.
- Financials significantly distort overall net margins. Net margins ex-Financials 7.78% in 2008, 7.04% in 2009, 8.23% for 2010, 8.76% expected in 2011. Expected to grow to 9.24% in 2012.
- Financials net margins soar from -8.42% in 2008 to 16.22% expected for 2012.
- All sectors but Medical and Utilities saw higher net margins in 2010 than in 2009. All sectors but Utilities and Construction expected to post higher net margins in 2011 than in 2010. Widespread margin expansion currently expected for 2012 as well with all sectors expected to post expansion in margins.
- Six sectors to boast double-digit net margins in 2012, up from just three in 2009.
- Sector net margins are calculated as total net income for sector divided by total revenues. However, there are generally fewer revenue estimates than earnings estimates for individual companies.
|Computer and Tech||11.98%||15.20%||16.06%||16.48%|
|Oils and Energy||6.25%||7.61%||8.54%||9.10%|
Earnings Estimate Revisions: Current Fiscal Year
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2011
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 0.52, down from 0.65 last week, now very bearish. Past seasonal high in activity, change in revisions ratio driven more by old estimates falling out, not new ones being added (lower significance to revisions ratio).
- Only Auto sector with revisions ratio at or above 1.0. Six sectors with more than two cuts per increase. Sample sizes getting thin.
- Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 0.64, down from 0.71 last week, a bearish reading.
- Total number of revisions (4-week total) nearing seasonal lows at 1,467, down from 1,624 last week (-9.7%). Increases at 502 down from 640 (-21.6%), cuts at 965, down from 984 (-1.9%).
|Sector|| %Ch |
Curr Fiscal Yr
Est - 4 wks
| # |
| # |
| # |
| # |
| Revisions |
|Oils and Energy||-0.24||15||25||54||109||0.50||0.60|
|Computer and Tech||-1.24||13||46||61||226||0.27||0.28|
Earnings Estimate Revisions: Next Fiscal Year
The Zacks Revisions Ratio: 2012
- Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 0.37, down from 0.41 from last week, deep in bearish territory, but sample size is getting thin for many sectors.
- Lowest FY2 revisions ratio since early in 2009.
- All sectors have negative revisions ratio (below 1.0). Eight sectors with more than five cuts per increase. Construction, Auto and Transports 10 to 1 or more.
- Ratio of firms with rising estimate to falling mean estimates at 0.43, up from 0.41, still deep in bearish territory.
- Total number of revisions (4-week total) at 1,678, down from 1,819 last week (-7.8%).
- Increases at 450 down from 541 last week (-16.8%), cuts fall to 1,228 from 1,278 last week (-3.8%).
|Sector|| %Ch |
Next Fiscal Yr Est - 4 wks
| # |
| # |
| # |
| # |
| Revisions |
|Oils and Energy||-1.05||15||26||82||130||0.63||0.58|
|Computer and Tech||-2.09||9||51||37||231||0.16||0.18|
Total Income and Share
- S&P 500 earned $543.6 billion in 2009, rising to earn $792.6 billion in 2010, $914.1 billion expected in 2011.
- The S&P 500 total earnings expected to hit the $1 trillion mark in 2012 at $1.042 trillion.
- Finance share of total earnings moves from 5.9% in 2009 to 18.0% in 2010, dip to 15.7% expected for 2011; rebound to 17.9% in 2012, but still well below 2007 peak of over 30%. Energy share also rising going from 11.9% in 2009 to 14.5% in 2012.
- Medical share of total earnings far exceeds market cap share (index weight), but earnings share expected to shrink from 17.3% in 2009 to 10.8% in 2012, down each year.
- Market Cap shares of Construction, Staples, Retail, Transportation, Industrials and Business Service sectors far exceed earnings shares of any of the years from 2010 through 2012.
- Earnings shares of Energy, Finance, Autos and Medical well above market cap shares.
- As a general rule, one should try to overweight sectors with rising earnings shares, underweight falling earnings shares, but also over weight sectors where earnings shares exceed market cap shares.
|Income ($ Bill)|| Total |
| Total |
| Total |
| % Total |
| % Total |
| % Total |
| % Total
|Computer and Tech||$135,631||$164,905||$182,641||17.11%||18.04%||17.53%||18.50%|
|Oils and Energy||$96,897||$135,620||$151,095||12.22%||14.84%||14.50%||11.64%|
- Trading at 14.27x 2010, 12.35x 2011 earnings, or earnings yields of 6.87% and 7.92%, respectively. P/E for 2012 at 11.07x or earnings yield of 9.03%.
- Earnings Yields still very attractive relative to 10-year T-Note rate of 2.05% (Friday).
- Autos and Energy have lowest P/E based on 2011 and 2012 earnings. Aerospace, Materials and Finance also have low P/Es for 2012.
- Construction has highest P/E for all three years by wide margin.
- S&P 500 earned $56.95 in 2009 rising to $83.10 in 2010. Currently expected to earn $95.81 in 2011 and $109.22 for 2012.
|Oils and Energy||20.76||13.86||9.90||8.89|
|Computer and Tech||23.07||15.73||12.94||11.68|
Data in this report, unless stated otherwise, is through the close on Thursday 9/15/2011.
We use the convention of referring to the next full fiscal year to be completed as 2011, not all firms are on December fiscal years, this can cause discontinuities in the data. The data is based on FY1, not based on 2011, even though I may call it 2011 in the report. All numbers, including historical ones, reflect the current composition of the S&P 500, thus some historical numbers may differ from those reported by S&P which are based on the composition of the index at the time of the reports.
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