GDP & Earnings...Who's Ready for Some Retail?

This is Mark Vickery, substituting for Sheraz Mian while he is away.

November 22, 2011

This morning, the first revision to gross domestic product (GDP) for the 3rd quarter of 2011 fell from 2.5% to 2.0%. Not a good headline number, for sure, but beneath it lie some pretty decent developments -- relatively speaking, of course.

Most revisions were for a tenth of a point or so -- negligible, especially considering there is a final revision on these numbers at this time next month -- but the one big downward revision was from the place that could most afford a downward revision: business investment. This has been the tug point dragging the economy off the sandbar, so you don't really want to see a downward revision here, but really -- down to 14.8% from 16.3% is not too bad.

Exports were up on the revision, to 4.3% from 4.0%, and imports fell from up 1.9% to up 0.5%. Take from this negative headline what you will, but it always pays to check the fine print.

In earnings news, after the bell yesterday Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - Analyst Report) beat estimates, but revised down for the 1st quarter of 2012. This was CEO Meg Whitman's first earnings report since taking the helm from Leo Apotheker, so she is -- and should be -- given some time to turn around the aircraft carrier that is H-P. Campbell Soup (CPB - Analyst Report) also dipped after the bell yesterday.

This morning, JA Solar (JASO - Analyst Report) swung to a loss in its 3rd quarter, as did Canadian Solar (CSIQ - Analyst Report), LDK Solar (LDK - Snapshot Report) and Suntech Power (STP - Analyst Report). Things are looking pretty cloudy for the solar market these days, but honestly -- is anyone invested in this space purely for the short-term?

Jefferies Group (JEF - Snapshot Report) has slashed its holdings in European securities by 50%, and Spanish 3-month notes have doubled. The European financial saga will not take Thanksgiving off, either, so don't expect much near-term relief on this front, either.

And...the U.S. congressional "super-committee" is still nowhere -- what a shocker! Might the problem be a lack of phone booths for members to change into their capes?

Mark Vickery
zacks.com

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