Goldman Sticks to S&P 1250 Call

You no doubt have heard about Goldman Sachs' forecast for another correction this year. This is a global strategy group that is sticking to their guns from an earlier call this year.

Given the 200-point run up to 1470, slowing earnings, and an approaching Fiscal Cliff, it's not hard to see why they would reaffirm their case last week. But this market is trading on lots of discounted bad news. And it still remains strong. Fund managers aren't running scared. They are accumulating. While the market is at risk here of falling back (we haven't had a good volatility scare to shake the tree in a while), I still believe we make new highs this year and that S&P 1400will be strong support. I do not cite 1400 because of the "round number" psychological effect, but because of all the work already done at 1390 this year and then becausewe sat on 1400 for the entire month of August before Draghi "saved the euro." If big investors were really scared of the earnings onslaught we are about to get in the next 3 weeks, or of the looming Fiscal Cliff, we'd already be a lot lower I think. It doesn't mean we can't get those fear-driven sell-offs on some bad earnings reports. I just think the market price action continues to make the case here for a break-out to the upside. If I'm wrong, then this will be a very interesting top indeed. But I want to hear what other investors think. Is the risk/reward right now in this market tilted strongly in favor of another correction?

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