I'm sure we've all had the pleasure of waking one morning and seeing that a broker has upgraded one of our stocks. Usually that stock is in for a good day and likely for several days or more after that.
Unfortunately, we've probably all had the experience of waking up and seeing one of our stocks downgraded too. Usually that stock is in for a rough day, and probably more days to follow.
And while nobody can perfectly predict an upgrade or guard against a downgrade, it's important to know how the market reacts to these things. This is so you can stay in your upgraded winners (or buy if you're on the fence) and consider getting out if a downgrade comes your way.
One thing I've been doing lately is screening for stocks that have recently seen a broker rating upgrade. Tests have proven that stocks with broker rating upgrades outperform those that don't get upgraded and outperform even more substantially those stocks that get downgraded.
By how much?
I created three screens and ran some tests over the last 10 years. And I applied all the below criteria to stocks trading >= $5 with an average daily trading volume of >= 100,000.
In screen 1: I backtested only those companies with broker rating upgrades.
In screen 2: I tested companies with no rating change at all. Whatever the rating was, good or bad, there was no change.
And in screen 3: I screened only those companies that received broker rating downgrades.
The tests pretty much confirmed what I had already suspected but the magnitude was a lot larger than I thought.
The broker rating upgrades over the last 10 years showed an average annual return of 10.4%.
The ones with no rating change at all showed an average annual rerun of 6.1%.
And the stocks with broker rating downgrades actually showed a loss of -0.3%.
So the upgrades beat the ones with no rating change by nearly twice as much. And they outperformed those with downgrades even more. In fact, that was the difference between making money and losing money.
Below are 5 stocks that have all been upgraded within the last 4 weeks:
(FDP - Snapshot Report) - Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.
(HLSS - Snapshot Report) - Home Loan Servicing Solutions, Ltd.
(KORS - Analyst Report) - Michael Kors Holdings Ltd.
(SSYS - Analyst Report) - Stratasys, Inc.
(TRV - Analyst Report) - The Travelers Companies, Inc.
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