Earnings Preview for Jan 12 - 16
Fourth-quarter earnings season will "officially" start on Monday, Jan 12 when Alcoa Inc. (AA - Snapshot Report) releases its results after the bell.
Just 22 companies are scheduled to release results, as it will be another week before earnings season truly heats up. Included on this week's calendar are Dow components AA and Intel Corporation (INTC - Analyst Report) as well as fellow S&P 500 members Amphenol Corporation (APH - Analyst Report), First Horizon National Corporation (FHN - Snapshot Report), Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI - Analyst Report), Linear Technology Corporation (LLTC - Analyst Report), Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (MI - Snapshot Report), PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG - Snapshot Report), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW - Analyst Report) and Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX - Analyst Report).
Wednesday could be a volatile day with December retail sales released in the morning and the Beige Book published in the afternoon.
- Tuesday: December Treasury deficit
- Wednesday: December retail sales, December import and export prices, November business inventories, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
- Thursday: December PPI, January Phili Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims
- Friday: December CPI, December industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary January University of Michigan consumer confidence
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech entitled "The Crisis and the Policy Response" in London on Tuesday.
The S&P 500 is above the 50-day moving average for the first time in months, though the move occurred on volume that has not been impressive. My presumption is that volume will remain average, at best, until after the inauguration.
The U.S. equity markets will be closed on Monday, Jan 19, in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises
Trends in earnings estimate revisions do not suggest a strong likelihood of any positive surprises.
Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises
Even during periods of economic growth, Alcoa Inc. (AA - Snapshot Report) often misses earnings estimates. So it is not shocking that brokerage analysts are lowering their expectations ahead of the company's fourth-quarter report. Over the past 30 days, cuts by 7 analysts have resulted in the consensus earnings estimate falling to a loss of 2 cents per share from a projected profit of 17 cents. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish and calls for a loss of 4 cents per share. As stated above, Alcoa will report on Monday, Jan 12, after the close of trading.
Last Wednesday, Intel (INTC - Analyst Report) warned that fourth-quarter revenues would be about $8.2 billion, a 20% decrease from a year prior and below the chipmaker's previous forecast. The company did not provide an EPS figure, but 8 brokerage analysts cut their quarterly projections in response. The revisions led to a 2-cent drop in the consensus estimate, which is now at 20 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 14 cents per share.
Though INTC does have a history of meeting or topping expectations, its 2009 guidance could dampen enthusiasm about fourth-quarter profits not being as bad as feared. INTC is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jan 15, after the close of trading.
Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com. He can be reached at crotblut@zacks.com.
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Earnings Calendar
Here is a list of companies that we have confirmed will report during the week of Jan 12 - Jan 161. Prices are as of Thursday's, Jan 9, market close.
| Company | Ticker | Zacks Consensus Estimate | Year Ago Actual | Last Qtr Surprise | Report Date | Report Time | Price |
| Alcoa Inc | AA - Snapshot Report | ($0.02) | $0.36 | (33.9%) | 1/12/2009 | AMC | $11.36 |
| Schwab(Chas) | SCHW - Analyst Report | $0.26 | $0.26 | 4.0% | 1/12/2009 | BTO | $16.15 |
| Exfo Electro | EXFO - Snapshot Report | $0.06 | $0.01 | 25.0% | 1/13/2009 | AMC | $3.19 |
| Infosys Tec-Adr | INFY - Analyst Report | $0.56 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 1/13/2009 | BTO | $26.64 |
| Insteel Inds | IIIN - Snapshot Report | ($0.26) | $0.23 | 64.8% | 1/13/2009 | BTO | $12.20 |
| Linear Tec Corp | LLTC - Analyst Report | $0.34 | $0.41 | 4.3% | 1/13/2009 | N/A | $23.26 |
| Clarcor Inc | CLC - Snapshot Report | $0.54 | $0.53 | (5.6%) | 1/14/2009 | AMC | $30.58 |
| Lecroy Corp | LCRY - Snapshot Report | $0.16 | $0.10 | 8.3% | 1/14/2009 | BTO | $3.21 |
| Xilinx Inc | XLNX - Analyst Report | $0.34 | $0.35 | 2.70% | 1/14/2009 | AMC | 17.00 |
| Amphenol Corp-A | APH - Analyst Report | $0.51 | $0.55 | 5.0% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $26.47 |
| Asml Holding Nv | ASML - Analyst Report | $0.03 | $0.57 | 23.8% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $17.87 |
| Cra Intl Inc | CRAI - Analyst Report | $0.46 | $0.69 | (56.2%) | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $26.80 |
| Genentech Inc | DNA | $0.91 | $0.60 | (11.9%) | 1/15/2009 | AMC | $84.40 |
| Home Bancshares | HOMB - Snapshot Report | $0.25 | $0.29 | 10.3% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $26.00 |
| Intel Corp | INTC - Analyst Report | $0.20 | $0.40 | 11.8% | 1/15/2009 | AMC | $14.55 |
| Marshall&Ilsley | MI - Snapshot Report | $0.18 | $0.16 | 60.0% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $12.17 |
| Shaw Comms-Cl B | SJR - Analyst Report | $0.23 | $0.23 | 11.1% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $18.32 |
| Shuffle Master | SHFL - Snapshot Report | $0.08 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 1/15/2009 | AMC | $5.40 |
| Simmons First A | SFNC - Snapshot Report | $0.40 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 1/15/2009 | BTO | $27.76 |
| First Hrzn Natl | FHN - Snapshot Report | ($0.32) | ($1.91) | (353.9%) | 1/16/2009 | BTO | $10.48 |
| Johnson Control | JCI - Analyst Report | $0.08 | $0.39 | 0.0% | 1/16/2009 | N/A | $19.12 |
| Ppg Inds Inc | PPG - Snapshot Report | $0.41 | $1.18 | 6.2% | 1/16/2009 | BTO | $44.19 |
BMO = Before The Market Open, AMC = After Market Close
1Some of the companies listed in the earnings calendar may not be in the Zacks Rank universe.