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Losing Stock Guy: Why He Went Wrong

By Kevin Matras
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Aggressive Growth

Apollo Group Inc

January 23, 2009 | Comments: 0
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Apollo Group (APOL - Snapshot Report) has just crushed Wall Street estimates and shares are setting new multi-year highs.

Company Description

Apollo Group, Inc. has been providing higher education to working adults for over 25 years. They operate through their subsidiaries, the University of Phoenix, Inc., the Institute for Professional Development, the College for Financial Planning Institutes Corporation, Western International University, Inc., and Apollo Learning Group, Inc.

Grade-A Results

On Jan 8 Apollo announced first-quarter results for fiscal 2009 that included a 40% growth in operating income, on a year-over-year basis. Revenues increased by 24% to $971 million.

When people are unemployed, many will seek opportunities to bolster their skill set and resume. Apollo offers both and unemployment is at its highest level in decades. These factors combined to increase Total Degree Enrollment by 18.4% to almost 385,000.

Beat the Street

The previously mention announcement also contained earnings per share of $1.12, well above Wall Street estimates, which averaged 97 cents. This was the third consecutive surprise and spurred analysts to up their forecasts in the future.

Estimates for full-year 2009 are now averaging $3.77, up from $3.47 before the earnings report, and up from $3.31 over the past 3 months. The consensus for 2010 is also up dramatically, now $4.62 from $3.76 over the past 3 months.

These estimates are projecting 33% growth in 2009 and 23% in 2010.

The Chart

Shares of APOL blasted through previous 2-year highs, which were also resistance, and are on a bullish run. Take a look at the chart below.


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