Friday - January 26, 2007
![]() Want to view the archive of past issues? Click here. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS Zacks #1 Rank stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value. Aggressive Growth – CarMax (KMX) CarMax (KMX) has exceeded earnings estimates in seven consecutive quarters. Year-over-year growth has routinely exceeded 30% over that time period. Five analysts have lifted their 2006 and 2007 forecasts. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have increased 23 cents to $1.86 per share. Read the full analysis on KMX now! Schering-Plough Corporation (SGP) exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in five out of the past seven quarters. Earnings per share are projected to grow 41% over the next 3-5 years, dwarfing the 18% expected growth rate for the industry. The company has a current dividend yield of 0.87% and a return on equity of 18%. Read the full analysis on SGP now! More...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Precision Castparts (PCP) is nothing if not consistent. When PCP reported fourth-quarter results on Monday, the company delivered its 15th consecutive positive earnings surprise. PCP reported EPS of $1.03, up 71.7% from a year earlier and a 14% positive surprise. Sales grew a very respectable 62% to $1.38 billion. Read the full analysis on PCP now! RLI Corp. (RLI), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, topped analysts’ earnings expectations in eight out of the past 11 quarters by an average margin of 37.7%. Consensus estimates for this year and next are up over the past 60 days. RLI recently announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend, and continues to repurchase shares. The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1, compared to 4.9 for the market. Read the full analysis on RLI now!
2. PROFIT TRACKS Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight... Profit Tracks: PEG Ratio This strategy uses the PEG Ratio to find attractively priced stocks poised for price appreciation. The PEG Ratio is simply the P/E (Price divided by Earnings) of a stock divided by its 5-year projected growth rate. Too often investors think of value investing being the antithesis of growth investing. The beauty of using PEG is that you can find value stocks even amongst hot growth stocks. Let's take a closer look. A company with a P/E Ratio of 20 and a Growth Rate of 10% will have a PEG Ratio of 2.0 (20 / 10 = 2.0). While a company with a P/E Ratio of 40 and a Growth Rate of 50% will have a PEG Ratio of only 0.8 ( 40 / 50 = 0.8) The stock with the P/E of 40 is actually the better bargain since its PEG Ratio is lower (0.8) implying it's undervalued with more upside potential. In general, a PEG value of less than 1 is considered undervalued while greater than 1 is thought to be fully valued to overvalued. The lower the PEG, the better the value, because the investor would be paying less for each unit of earnings growth. Axis Capital Holdings Ltd. (AXS) will announce financial results for the fourth quarter in early February. The third-quarter report was released in late October. Earnings per share were ahead of the consensus estimate 12% and reversed the year-prior loss. Axis Capital Holdings satisfies the criteria of this Profit Track with as evidenced by its PEG ratio of 0.50. Continue your research on AXS now! The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (MTW), a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, offers a PEG ratio is 0.49. In late November, the company released an update on its full-year 2006 expectations and provided an initial year 2007 forecast. For 2006, the company issued an earnings guidance of $2.70 and $2.75 per share, excluding special items. Analysts are currently forecasting $2.76 per share. MTW's outlook for 2007 ranges between $3.75 and $4.00. Wall Street is forecasting $4.01 right now. Continue your research on MTW now! SkyWest Inc. (SKYW) will release fourth-quarter results on February 7, 2007. The company recently issued a fourth-quarter earnings guidance of 44 cents to 50 cents per share, noting that the earnings estimates reflect the effect of weather problems among other issues. Analysts are forecasting 47 cents, which decreased from one month-ago estimates of 63 cents. However, Wall Street estimates for the full-year 2007 have held steady over the past three months at $2.73 per share. The company’s third-quarter earnings per share were 63 cents, which eclipsed the year-prior 51 cents and topped the consensus estimate by a penny. SKYW’s PEG ratio currently stands at 0.55. Continue your research on SKYW now! Tidewater Inc. (TDW), another Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) name, has a PEG ratio of 0.25. The company recently posted fiscal third-quarter earnings per share that were ahead of the consensus estimate by nearly 5% and improved on a year-over-year basis. Revenues also increased from last year’s third-quarter total of $234.6 million to $287.9 million. Continue your research on TDW now! To see the full list of stocks that currently pass this winning screen, click here. All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the performance, then you should start a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research Wizard free trial offer and our new special report “Top 10 Stock Screening Strategies”. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Three Days Up: Price and Volume Kevin Matras goes over a price and volume screen for finding stocks on the move. More... 3. ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH Before the majority of insurance companies report their Q4 and FY06 earnings, we wanted to make sure to get a better handle on what should be expected. Therefore, we sat down with Eric Rothmann, senior insurance analyst with Zacks Equity Research. What types of things will you be looking for in determining your forward outlook on the insurance industry? With competitive pressures rising within the industry, we continue to look for signals of real deterioration versus anomalies, such as: is the pressure on net premium written growth more cyclically normal for this time of year, or is there less business being written? Then we’d consider things like: are losses rising at a greater than digestible rate? Are the loss, expense and persistency ratios and alike experiencing between period anomalies or not? And how are the companies utilizing their excess capital, expand the business or financially engineering results via significant share repurchases to mask lower growth. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Looking toward 2007, where are we in this industry’s cycle? I think we’ve seen the peaks in some of the ROEs for at least the near term. Also, in the financial arena, the cyclical nature would tend to lend for some sort of a price pullback here as investors take profits. This also speaks to the fact that, out of the 57 companies under coverage currently, only about 10 or so are considered Buy recommendations. Speaking of Buys, which are your top-rated companies at this time? Since, we spoke last, our Buy on Prudential (PRU) has worked out well up over 8.0%, though W.R. Berkley (BER) and Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) have been sort of flat. We still like these names, however. But from here, the list keeps shrinking as the days go on, considering how prices have been appreciating relative to our target prices. We try to keep a very tight valuation model at this point. For example, we lowered our rating on Reinsurance Group (RGA) in October 2006, and the shares of this company have compressed by about 6%. At this point in time, Berkley and Prudential appear to have the greatest potential for keeping their ROE fairly lofty, as they are large, well-diversified companies. Any Sell recommendations you’d care to mention? Not right at the moment, I don’t. But we do see some selling opportunities late this year and into early 2007. Right now, however, everything remains status quo. How would you advise investors to play insurance stocks going forward? Well, going out even further than just the next quarter or next fiscal year, I’d suggest people start looking at the life insurance companies. The Baby Boomers, in particular, are getting to the point where they’ll be looking out toward their retirement years – 70s, 80s and beyond – for financial security for their spouses and also their families. So we should start seeing a progression over the next several years more toward the life insurance types of products. At this point, you’d start looking at a number of life insurance companies like Lincoln National and start looking for inflection points. Over time, there should be some good and interesting plays in this group. Across the board, the financial industry has had a great run. I think the cyclicality of investors moving into other industries and banking some of their profits should come into play in the near term. We should be able to weed our way through and see other opportunities as they come up. A number of companies in this space are going to be guiding for their 2007 years, and these are numbers that will be well worth watching. Read the complete ANALYST INTERVIEW article now. Eric Rothmann is a senior analyst covering the insurance industry for Zacks Equity Research. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Analyst Blog Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts. Stocks featured recently include Parker Hannifin (PH), Abbott Labs (ABT), Motorola (MOT) and eBay (EBAY). To see their latest posts, click here. Trident Microsystems (TRID) - Growing Share. For full Zacks research report, click here. Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) - Product Issues. For full Zacks research report, click here. Financial Hits and Misses Not as Positive as in the Past Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks Equity Research: click here. Read the reports on all of the stocks on the Zacks Equity Research Buy List: click here.
4. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on timely Featured Expert commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com.
Jim Oberweis says a shift from value to growth appears to be underway. Read his commentary and discover a few stocks. More...
Gregory Spear sees depressed stock prices, but mentions that some companies could rally. More...
Ron Rowland explains that patience may be rewarded after the current volatility subsides. Benefit from this mutual fund expert’s insight. More... OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank stocks (Strong Sell) List has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from Their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That's why we created the free special report: "Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions". Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Charles Rotblut, CFA p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return of equal weighted simulated portfolios consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank net of fees. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a client's money. The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||


