Tuesday - December 14, 2004
![]() Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
While rooting for an underdog can be fun, the competitive advantages held by market leaders often translate into superior profit margins and stock market returns. As an investor, you should always be looking for companies with sustainable competitive advantages, including cost and product differentiation. Companies with relatively low cost structures can gain share by pricing products lower than rivals — or earn superior profit margins by matching rivals’ prices. Companies with unique products can sell at premium prices, avoiding cutthroat price competition by emphasizing proprietary designs, patents, brand recognition, and firm reputation. Partly because many industries require huge capital investments to compete, such giants as Anheuser- Busch, Intel, and Wal-Mart Stores dominate their sectors. But many smaller companies have carved out attractive market niches, using competitive advantages to gain leading market positions. Spotlighted below are market-leading companies with solid operating momentum and bright year-ahead growth prospects. All are quality companies with solid Quadrix® scores. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), the world’s largest bookseller, operates 839 stores. The company is also one of the world’s largest book publishers. October-quarter results were mixed. Core bookstore per-share earnings were $0.09, in line with management’s guidance but below the $0.10 earned in the year-earlier period. Bookstore sales climbed nearly 3% to $950 million. For the first three quarters of fiscal 2005 ending January, bookstore profits more than doubled to $0.59 per share. Management reaffirmed its previously announced profit guidance. Excluding recently spun off GameStop, full year earnings per share should climb about 30% to $1.78 to $1.84. Masonite International (NYSE: MHM) sells doors, industrial products, and entry systems. The company is the world’s largest maker of molded door facings. Masonite operates more than 80 facilities with more than 14,000 employees, spanning the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Masonite holds an estimated 30% of the North American door market and half the interior molded door market in the U.S. The company is positioned to capitalize on healthy home-construction and remodeling trends. While rising material costs could weigh on profit margins, strong sales growth and product launches should fuel earnings growth. For 2004, earnings per share are expected to climb 27% to $2.47. Sales are expected to increase 24%. Maverick Tube (NYSE: MVK) is the leading North American producer of tubular steel products used in energy and industrial applications. Products include pipe used for drilling and transporting oil and natural gas. In Quadrix, Maverick Tube earns the maximum Overall score of 100, with particularly good scores in Value (100), Momentum (97), and Quality (95). High oil and natural-gas prices should sustain growth in drilling activity and spur demand for the company’s products. Impressive operating results have lifted the shares near five year highs. But considering Maverick’s strong earnings momentum and bright cash-flow prospects, the shares have room to run. For 2004, earnings per share should approach $4.49, up from $0.63 in 2003. That estimate has climbed 11% over the past 60 days. In February 1999, Richard Moroney began using Quadrix to serve as a first screen to identify stocks with winning potential. Over the past few years, this system has proven to work significantly well with smaller stocks and has proceeded to gain 240.1% while the Russell 2000 Index gained only 36.3%. Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=32. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b) A New Year and A Mixed Picture The economic picture is decidedly mixed heading into the New
Year, according to John Reese. Learn which indicators this
expert is watching, and take a look at two of the latest
additions to the Hot List. More... c) Proposed Goldcorp & Wheaton Combination: Gold-Wheaton? Ed Bugos can`t find anything wrong with the potential deal
between Goldcorp and Wheaton River. Read this expert`s analysis
of this possible combination. More... d) A Small-Cap with Room to Grow Small companies have greater growth potential than more mature
issues, so Paul Tracy highlights a little-known stock that
could help your portfolio bulk up. More... e) Opportunity knocking? Or has Santa Left the Building? Dave Moenning says the momentum is still on the side of the
bulls, so Santa shouldn`t have any plans on leaving. Get this
expert`s analysis and find out where the bulls and bears stand. More... f) Go With The Flow in Biotechnology Nadine Wong features a biotechnology company that could keep
profits flowing through your portfolio. Read about Nuvelo and
find out why this expert believes the company is an interesting
investment opportunity. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: All Star Top Picks Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today we will
uncover the current top picks of 5 Star analysts in a hot sector
(a.k.a. All Star Top Picks). Why? First, it makes sense to tap
into industries that have potential to outperform the market.
Second, within that sector you want to be on board the stocks
with the best prospects. To help us uncover these top picks we
employ the keen insights of 5-Star analysts. Who are they? Check
out the "About Zacks All Star Analyst Survey" section below. This week we explore the Home Construction Industry Few industries generate as much debate as homebuilding. The space has enjoyed extraordinary prosperity since the bubble burst at the turn of the century, and for almost as long, naysayers have been calling for its downfall. Thus far, the industry has disappointed them, but this rate-rising environment has added new teeth to this hotly-contested issue. However, many analysts are not yet willing to turn their backs on one of the few industries to proper when so many others buckled under the pressure. And why should they? It’s widely assumed that the space will slow down considerably in the coming years, but this is certainly not an industry on its last legs. In fact, it still commands a Zacks Industry Rank of 2.26, according to Nick Raich’s “Weekly Earnings and Sector Update,” placing it 9th out of more than 200 industries. Margaret Whelan of UBS expects homebuilder stocks to continue to perform well through the end of the year, and says earnings per share growth for 2005 could reach +29%, according to a recent research report. This is a much more stable view of the situation than the prevailing view of a significant portion of the market. The third quarter started off on an ominous note when Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) lowered its earnings outlook for the year due to problems in its Las Vegas operations. (The company would later report third quarter earnings from continuing operations that jumped +55% year-over-year, but still fell slightly short of the consensus.) The response from Wall Street was swift and, many people believe, exaggerated. Since that time however, many home builders have put together solid quarterly reports, such as those profiled below. Banc of America Securities expects a modest upside for homebuilding stocks. They recently initiated coverage on nine homebuilders. With a slowing housing market, their December 9th research report details their predictions for earnings growth of +16% for 2005 and +13% for 2006. Large homebuilders continue to take market share from smaller companies, which should keep the overall space moving in the right direction. Banc of America highlighted several reasons for this modest upside, including continued earnings growth, market share gains, a solid housing market environment, and reasonable valuations. But there do seem to be more risks for the homebuilding industry today, led by rising interest rates. The Fed has signaled that it wants to continue raising rates during upcoming meetings. Along with the highly emotional state of the industry right now, this makes for a very touchy environment for investors. Some people may want to take a wait-and-see stance when it comes to homebuilders, but you may also be missing out on real profit potential. Top analysts are best positioned to answer any questions through their research and direct you toward those companies poised to continue moving forward. With large companies moving in on small companies’ turf, and with housing demand still high, the home building industry appears to have good visibility heading into the new year. Unforeseen shocks aside, many believe that homebuilders have room to move even further, but without as much gusto as before. Investors should take such factors into account before calling in the wrecking crew on this space. The answers to these questions are found in the remainder of this All Star Top Picks article at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1451. To see the full All Star Survey with access to all ratings, research and stock picks, then visit: http://at.zacks.com/?id=12. These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers in the business. This portfolio only includes stocks recommended by five or more of the 5-Star analysts based on stock picking performance. In 2003 it gained 46.6% nearly doubling the performance of the S&P 500. See the full portfolio at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=13. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Dollar Will Turn Focus to Large Caps Why is the US dollar falling? What impact will the dollar’s
slide have on your stocks and investments? The experts examine
this vital issue. More... Finding Growth Stocks at Excellent Values Kevin Matras shows you how to find great growth stocks at an
excellent value. This strategy has shown an average annualized
gross return of over 20% in 2002, 90% in 2003, and more than
38% so far in 2004. Start planning for a profitable 2005 and
get 3 of its newest picks. More... 3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Millennium Pharma. (MLNM) - Optimism for Oncology Drugs Dean Foods (DF) - Increased Costs and Competition Growth in Conglomerates Receives Little Attention Demand Keeps Paper Prices High Materials Lead the Way in Q3 2004 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight… Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +32.9% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +11.8% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 168.4% annually (11.81% vs. 4.40% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 29 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffer’s Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffer’s Tools to Profit with Options. First off, how about that RAMBUS pick from three weeks ago? The December 20 calls you could have bought for as little as $2.10 three weeks ago were trading for $6.40 on Friday afternoon - a nice little 200% winner in three weeks. NOT BAD! Now as we pointed out last week the odds that Cisco Systems (CSCO) would fall in the coming days and months is probably pretty strong. Let’s do a quick review of what lead us to this decision. We were able to find using the High Open Interest Position CSCO has at ton of calls up at the January 20 strike. Simply put, this means that option players think the shares will trade over $20 by January expiration. Now the trick is when you see this to become a “contrarian” and go against the crowd. If every one thinks one way, the odds are in favor it will move the other way and prove everyone wrong. Sure this is hard to do at first, but once you make some money - I think you’ll be happy. After taking another look at the High Open Interest Position filter this week we see that there are actually more calls at the January 20 strike for CSCO! In other words, they are more bullish now than a week ago. As Ryan Detrick, author of Schaeffer's Opening View, suggested last week "A very large amount of calls at a strike can act as a huge level of resistance at that price." At the time of our first filter discovering CSCO, we see it was trading near $19.40. A few days after that it moved above $20 but came crashing back down and couldn’t close above this all important level. The BEST we could have done was break even. Now we know the trend, and this is a great sign that $20 could very well hold as we suspected a week ago. Let’s have some fun now. To play the contrarian game to its fullest, the CSCO January PUTS are trading near 95 cents currently. Say we buy it right now and wait to see what happens this time! Now, remember that old adage that ANY option play is a gamble and that no system is totally fail-safe, just like we proved last week. But still, it seems that CSCO is ready for that impending drop, so let’s spin that wheel again and take another chance on CSCO. We can make it RMBS-like yet! To learn more about the High Open Interest filter, click here. Indicators are signaling a flat environment as the market takes
a breather. Believing that a Santa Claus rally will arrive by
the end of the year, find out what option trades Jeff Carter
and his team are recommending. More... Bernie Schaeffer says bulls may have won the battle in 2004,
but they may not win the war. Discover why this expert
continues to advocate aggressive cash levels, and learn about
three options from his Aggressive Portfolio. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

