Tuesday - January 4, 2005
![]() Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as its published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
If 120 years of stock market history is a reliable guide, 2005 will see a 30 percent or better gain in the Dow Industrial Average. Since 1915, the average gain for years ending in five is 34.2 percent. It is also comforting to know that years ending in five have never posted a loss in the last 120 years. Years ending in five are also the first years of economic booms and bull markets. The first year of the 1995-1999 bull market produced a 33.5 percent gain. This ten year cycle dates back to the 1915-1919 economic boom and bull market. The Roaring 20s economic boom and bull market began in 1925, and, of course, ended with the October 1929 stock market crash. The Great Depression began in 1930 and lasted until 1942. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In the middle of the Great Depression, the Dow Average was up 38.5 percent in 1935! If you study the repeating ten-year market cycle, forecasting a great boom and bull market during 2005-2009 is not rocket science. It simply happens every ten years, and no one can really explain why. The ten-year cycle also explains why recessions and bear markets unfold at the beginning of each decade. Years ending in zero, one and two always produce bear markets and recessions. Donald Rowes forecast of a 2010-2011-2012 recession and bear market will come as no surprise to Wall Street Digest subscribers. New subscribers should be aware of this centuries-old, ten-year repeating cycle. The enormous monetary liquidity supporting the 2005-2009 economic boom and bull market is unprecedented, with six trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines and most of it in money market accounts. The Feds monetary policy is squeezing investors to move this mountain of cash into the bond market or the stock market. Stock Picks KNIGHT TRANSPORTATION, INC. (NASDAQ: KNGT) is a short- to medium-haul, truckload carrier that transports general commodities, including consumer goods, packaged foodstuffs, paper products, beverage containers, imported and exported commodities, and refrigerated goods throughout the United States. Over the past four quarters, Knight Transportation has realized earnings growth of 38%, 25%, 23%, and 13% on sales increases of 30%, 26%, 22%, and 14%, respectively. This fiscal year, the company is expecting earnings of $0.80 per share, a 29% increase from last year. Long-term earnings are expected to average 25% annually. OPENWAVE SYSTEMS, INC. (NASDAQ: OPWV) is a leading provider of open standards software products and services for the telecommunications industry. The company provides software and services to mobile and wireline carriers, Internet service providers (ISPs), broadband providers and handset manufacturers. Over the past four quarters, Openwave Systems has realized earnings growth of 128%, 96%, 73%, and 64% on sales increases of 23%, 15%, 17%, and 7%, respectively. This fiscal year, the company is expecting earnings of $0.24 per share, a 150% increase from last year, while the industry is expecting an increase of 17%. Long-term earnings are expected to average 25% annually. A SUPER ECONOMIC BOOM IS COMING! Momentum investor, Donald Rowe brings decades of experience and helps you utilize The Wall Street Profit System 2005 to double your money every three years! Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=28. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b) Thin Trading Dominates Final Days of 2004 Trading has been thin in all the major markets during these
last few days of 2004. Get the skinny on what is happening in
the markets from Richard Rhodes, and then read about some of
this experts Trading Positions. More... Charles Carlson believes in the concept of `reversion to the
mean,` and highlights three companies that could spend 2005
moving up to its long-term equilibrium level. More... d) A Growing Resource for Profit Ben Zacks highlights a professional services company with
several key positives for the future. Learn why this expert has
put Resources Connection on his Focus List. More... e) Waiting Dave Moenning says the market appears to be waiting for the
year to come to a close. Learn what to expect in the days ahead
with this experts commentary. More... Dennis Slothower says the trend still resides with the bulls,
but he`s seeing some early warning signs. Learn why a mild
correction may not be too far off, and how to maneuver through
it. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: All Star Top Picks Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today we will
uncover the current top picks of 5 Star analysts in a hot sector
(a.k.a. All Star Top Picks). Why? First, it makes sense to tap
into industries that have potential to outperform the market.
Second, within that sector you want to be on board the stocks
with the best prospects. To help us uncover these top picks we
employ the keen insights of 5-Star analysts. Who are they? Check
out the "About Zacks All Star Analyst Survey" section below. This week we explore the Biotechnology Industry For the final All Star Top Picks in 2004, we are revisiting a past article on the biotechnology industry, which could be in line for a big 2005. Read about the unique nature of this innovative space and learn about five stocks at the forefront. Its hard to imagine a more exciting industry than biotechnology. However, excitement doesnt always translate into profit for investors, and finding real winners can be as tricky as the diseases that this space fights. While theres no magic formula for picking the most innovative and best-run biotech companies from the hundreds of candidates, there are ways for investors to weed out a bulk of the undesirables. If done effectively, biotech can live up to the better half of its reputation; as one of the most intriguing and life-changing segments of the market. At present, the biotech industry has a Zacks Industry Rank of 2.99, according to Nick Raich's "Weekly Earnings and Sector Update" as of December 24th, ranking 94th out of more than 200 industries. The summer months were rough for biotech, as is usually the case. Even though many of the spaces stalwarts reported decent quarters, investors werent willing to put money in riskier ventures when so many other factors were pressuring the market. Analysts remained largely patient, opting to tout the industrys innovation while keeping their distance until a more advantageous time. Caution among analysts, and investors for that matter, remains high, but it might be a good time to try and find those companies poised for success. One of the leading factors that analysts like to see in a biotech investment revolves around their ability to fulfill a unique niche. By nature, this space moves quicker than the larger, more traditional pharmaceutical companies. If a company can be the first to target an underrepresented health issue with an effective treatment, then that company could become a true hot spot. Most of the larger biotech companies, such as MedImmune and Genentech, are so well known because they have already fulfilled this crucial requirement. Finding the next diamond in the rough can be a perilous road if you dont have some help. From a tamer perspective, a truly revolutionary treatment in a well-represented area could also aid investors. Equally as important is the companys cash position. Bringing drugs to market is a long and expensive process, which promises to have several setbacks along the way. A solid investment should have an effective balance sheet that can maneuver through such obstacles and find a way to get approved. Biotech companies have several ways in which to keep research and development moving forward, including acquisitions. There are numerous other factors that analysts use to find the next big thing. Biotech is a very large, and growing, space with some companies focusing on a pipeline and others looking for their first big break. Investors should be very careful as they move through the industry, because oftentimes the duds outnumber the winners. However, you can make your own luck by consulting the analysts before making your move. They already have their finger on the pulse of this space, and can help you treat a lackluster portfolio with some therapy from the biotechs. The answers to these questions are found in the remainder of this All Star Top Picks article at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1451. To see the full All Star Survey with access to all ratings, research and stock picks, then visit: http://at.zacks.com/?id=12. These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers in the business. This portfolio only includes stocks recommended by five or more of the 5-Star analysts based on stock picking performance. In 2003 it gained 46.6% nearly doubling the performance of the S&P 500. See the full portfolio at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=13. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Dollar Will Turn Focus to Large Caps Why is the US dollar falling? What impact will the dollars
slide have on your stocks and investments? The experts examine
this vital issue below. More... Kevin Matras goes over his Big Money screening strategy that
picked up over 100% in 2001 and over 200% in 2002 and 2003! See
why it's called Big Money and get this weeks picks. More... 3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Exelon Corp. (EXC) - Merger to Greatly Benefit Utility Ethan Allen (ETH) - Current Price a Good Exit Point Pace of Tech Consolidation to Accelerate Chemicals & Fertilizer Industry Improving Stock Market Outlook for 2005 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +32.9% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +11.8% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 168.4% annually (11.81% vs. 4.40% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 58 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffers Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffers Tools to Profit with Options. Let's get started this New Year with a potential BIG winner, one of the stocks that caught our eye because it scored high on the Unusually High Call Volume filter is Taser (NASDAQ: TASR). For those that don't know what a Taser is, it is a stun gun that is used by police departments around the world to subdue suspected law breaking citizens. What stands out on Taser more than just about any stock you can think of is the media has repeatedly slammed it for various reasons, yet the shares keep on making new all-time highs. This is exactly what we'd like to see as a sign that money is still on the sidelines just waiting to push the shares higher. On Wednesday, the shares soared over nine percent after the company said it expected sales to be higher thanks to increasing foreign demand. Now we see that the options crowd could be jumping on the band wagon, as calls traded at over 2.4 times their average daily volume after the news. In other words, investors are very optimistic that the increasing sales will spike the share price higher. On Wednesday, the shares soared over nine percent after the company said it expected sales to be higher thanks to increasing foreign demand. Now we see that the options crowd could be jumping on the band wagon, as calls traded at over 2.4 times their average daily volume after the news. In other words, investors are very optimistic that the increasing sales will spike the share price higher. Ryan Detrick, author of Schaeffer's Opening View, suggests that "Although there are some recent signs of optimism toward the shares, there is still plenty of skepticism left." This is exactly what you'd like to see for a stock making new all-time highs. One reason the shares could see massive gains is the absolutely huge amount of bearish short positions against it. You see, over 58 percent of the firm's float is sold short. Trust me, this is a huge number and shows massive skepticism. Now let's compare are finding still further with the Zacks.com Ranking System. Remember - it is KEY not to rely on one filter as gospel, instead to be sure to compare and compare again one filter against another. When we plug TASR into the Zacks system we find that the Street is totally ignoring the shares, as there is only one recommendation. This leaves the door wide open for plenty of future positive initiations. For fun, let's say we go ahead and buy the TASR February 30 call. In the morning on Thursday you could have bought this option for $4.80 a contract. Of course we have no clue what might happen from here, but looking at past behavior on this stock it could definitely move much higher and extremely quickly. What does this all mean? - First off, as with ANY move there is a gamble and some risk and no system is fail safe - however, this stock does appear to be ripe for some kind of upward move, even after the recent moves. So this information combined with the results from our filters would encourage us to possibly take part in buying calls. Good Luck with your trading and please use the materials at Zacks.com and the Option Research Center provided by Schaefer's Investment Research. To learn more about the Unusually High Call Volume filter, click here. a) Savvy Investors Will Have Options in 2005 Options can help fulfill your New Year's resolution of a more
profitable portfolio. Dr. Edward Olmstead helps with a pair of
bullish trades.More... b) Charts Looking Good to Start the New Year Ken Trester and his team continue to receive neutral signals as
the market moves up slowly. Discover how they are positioned to
take advantage of a potential rally through options. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

