Tuesday - January 11, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
Fundamentally, the economy was humming in 2004. In fact, if forecasts prove correct, last year's economy grew at the fastest pace in two decades and matched the 4.5% growth achieved in 1999 and 1997. These years were fantastic for stocks with the S&P 500 gaining 21% and 33%, respectively. Last year was a different story. The S&P 500, which was the top performing major index, failed to reach double-digit returns. And as late as October 26, the index was unchanged for the year. What made last year different and what makes Jim Collins and his team more optimistic about this year? In 2004 there was an extraordinary number of internal and external factors affecting stocks. The factors included the war in Iraq, violence in the Middle East, soaring oil prices due to world supply disruptions, summer terrorist alerts, rising interest rates, and a fiercely contested presidential election. In essence, stocks had to climb a "wall of worry." Not until November did most of these concerns lift, allowing stock prices to rally. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Of these concerns, only rising interest rates are likely to negatively affect stock prices in 2005. Investors have already discounted the war in Iraq and energy prices are likely to remain steady or drop. However, the Federal Reserve has reiterated their intention to raise rates at a measured pace. The Fed is in the midst of a methodical process of returning interest rates to historical levels. This differs from the usual motives behind interest rate increases: slowing the economy and/or impeding inflation. The one positive of 2004's lackluster returns in the face of rapidly rising earnings is that stock valuations are sharply lower heading into 2005 than they were at the beginning of 2004 and are at their lowest level since 1996. However, valuations are likely to be constrained by a further rise in interest rates. This means that it is highly unlikely that valuations will return to the lofty levels of the late 1990s. What it does mean, though, is 2005 returns could be above average, reflecting stocks' earnings growth. In the end, stock prices are driven by earnings growth. Investors with the foresight and fortitude to buy stocks in the current environment are likely to be rewarded in the long run. Audible (NASDAQ: ADBL) provides premium spoken audio content, such as audio versions of books and newspapers and radio programs, that is delivered over the Internet and can be played back on personal computers and hand-held electronic devices. The Audible service allows consumers to purchase and download content from our Web site, store it in digital files and play it back on personal computers and electronic devices. Central European Media Enterprises (NASDAQ: CETV) is involved in the Media and Advertising Industry. They invest in, develop and operate national and regional commercial television stations and networks. Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) designs, manufactures, and markets innovative, function-oriented footwear and apparel that have been developed for high-performance outdoor, sports and other lifestyle related activities, as well as for casual use. Landstar Systems (NASDAQ: LSTR), through its operating subsidiaries, provides a wide range of transportation services that operates the third largest truckload carrier in North America. Overstock.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: OSTK) is an online closeout retailer offering discount, brand-name merchandise for sale over the Internet. Their merchandise offerings include bed-and- bath goods, kitchenware, watches, jewelry, electronics, sporting goods and designer accessories. OTC Insight® specializes in growth stocks, particularly in the small to mid-cap range. This monthly publication, which focuses on Nasdaq listed stocks, is a by-product of the research we use to select stocks for our managed client portfolios through Insight Capital Research and Management, Inc.® Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1514. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Gregory Spear believes the January Effect could help some
beaten down technology names. Learn about three stocks that
could be poised for a rebound. More... Richard Rhodes and his team continue to see an inverse
relationship between the US dollar and stocks. Learn how they
are poised as the dollar rises. More... d) Is a Correction Beginning or Ending? Dennis Slothower helps us decide whether or not it is time to
head for the hills. Learn how recent economic data has affected
the markets and what direction the Russell 2000 might soon
take. More... e) Retailers Offer Mixed Sales Results Bill Martin and Matt Ragas` two retail plays had very different
December sales results. Learn about these two companies and be
aware of the risky retail industry. More... The first week of trading in 2005 was lackluster, but Dr.
Melvin Pasternak says there are important technical positives.
Read this expert’s in-depth analysis. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: All Star Top Picks Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today we will
uncover the current top picks of 5 Star analysts in a hot sector
(a.k.a. All Star Top Picks). Why? First, it makes sense to tap
into industries that have potential to outperform the market.
Second, within that sector you want to be on board the stocks
with the best prospects. To help us uncover these top picks we
employ the keen insights of 5-Star analysts. Who are they? Check
out the "About Zacks All Star Analyst Survey" section below. This week we explore the Transportation Industry The transportation industry offers its services on land, in the air, and at sea. With such global proportions, it’s easier to break down this space into sub-sectors. Subsequently, one observes that several transportation-related arenas occupy respectable Zacks Industry Rankings, despite numerous challenges from hurricanes to high oil prices. According to Nick Raich’s “Weekly Earnings and Sector Update,” Air Freight, Shipping, and Trucking represent the top three transportation positions with rankings of 2.20, 2.54, and 2.64 respectively. Also notable are Equipment & Leasing at 2.71; Rail at 2.80 and Transportation Services at 2.83. November air-freight trends show why this space ranks 7th out of more than 200 industries. According to the Air Transport Association (ATA), domestic volumes improved +4% from the year- earlier month, or roughly in-line with GDP. Meanwhile, international volumes advanced +11.9%, spearheaded by strong growth of almost +14% in the Pacific/Asia lane. According to a January 6th 2005 research report from Robert W. Baird, “Our channel checks confirm that solid trends continued through December with both international and domestic freight volumes. We expect December ATA volumes and the fourth quarter reporting to reflect these favorable tends.” The offshore supply vessel space also seems to be poised for a solid year. According to a December 8, 2004 research report form Goldman Sachs, “supply and demand in the US Gulf of Mexico supply boat market reached equilibrium (in the third quarter) due to a combination of hurricane-related construction demand, supply exodus to stronger foreign markets, and improved rig activity.” The brokerage also said that fourth quarter day rates appear to be up +10% to +20% sequentially for deepwater vessels and +5% to +10% for conventional vessels. Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. (NYSE: HOS) echoed this idea in its third quarter results, stating “we are seeing demand for our new generation OSVs starting to outpace supply, which has led to full practical utilization and high day rates. OSV revenues jumped +16.1% in the quarter to $20.2 million. Robert W. Baird also stated that truckload trends finished 2004 strong. In a January 3rd, 2005 research report, the brokerage stated, “We believe third-party logistics truck brokers are attractively positioned in this market, benefiting from both tight capacity and fleet growth among the smaller carriers.” The best way to find real winners in the transportation industry is to consult the All Star Analysts. In such a large space, which can oftentimes be swayed by outside circumstances, these analysts can keep you on the right course by pointing out those companies best positioned to move forward. The answers to these questions are found in the remainder of this All Star Top Picks article at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1451. To see the full All Star Survey with access to all ratings, research and stock picks, then visit: http://at.zacks.com/?id=12. These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers in the business. This portfolio only includes stocks recommended by five or more of the 5-Star analysts based on stock picking performance. In 2003 it gained 46.6% nearly doubling the performance of the S&P 500. See the full portfolio at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=13. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Whether the market will move in a clear trend or be stuck in a
trading range in 2005 is critical for profitable investing. The
Experts debate and offer strategies and stock picks for either
scenario. More... Kevin Matras goes over his ‘Return on Equity’ (ROE) strategy
that showed an average annualized gross return of over 89% in
2002, 110% in 2003 and over 60% in 2004. See how and get three
new top picks. More... 3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Silgan Holdings (SLGN) - Poised for Margin Expansion El Paso Corp. (EP) - High Risk in Natural Gas Price Speculation Interest Rates Key for Real Estate Investment Trusts Paper Demand, Price Being Driven Higher Peak Fourth Quarter Earnings Season Fast Approaching 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight… Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +32.9% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +11.8% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 168.4% annually (11.81% vs. 4.40% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 69 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffer’s Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffer’s Tools to Profit with Options. Well two weeks ago, as you might remember, it was all about when to take profits and letting your winners run. As luck would have it, the first three days of trading in 2005 were greeted with some big time heavy duty selling and our Cisco Systems (CSCO) January 2005 20 puts that we "hypothetically" could have bought for 95 cents in early December saw some fantastic gains as a result. As we noted back a few blurps ago, CSCO showed up on our High Open Interest Position screen as it had a huge amount of calls at the 20 strike. Simply put, that meant short-term option players were making huge bets that CSCO would trade above $20 by January expiration. Well as contrarians we saw this as an opportunity to jump to the other side of the bet and buy the 20 puts instead! This is very hard to do at first, but you must remember that a large amount of open interest has a strong tendency to act as a fine line of resistance and simply won't let the prices go above them. By Wednesday, January 6 you could have sold your put for a profit of just over 60 percent, not too bad for a few weeks return. But wait, as we stressed in the last blurp Bernie recommends that you take out small bits of profits along the way to "book" your gains while allowing yourself the chance to make monster profits should the sell-off accelerate going into expiration. One thing to consider strongly is how long you have until expiration when it comes to taking profits. If you don't have much time, then being extra aggressive could be a very smart thing to do, as it could turn on a dime and those profits would vanish. In this case, with just a few weeks until expiration Bernie would advise selling 1/4 to 1/2 of your position to lock-in those nice profits. It really all depends on how aggressive you are. In our case, let's say we want to really swing for the fences and locked in only 1/4 of the position at a 63 percent gain, leaving the remaining 3/4 open. From here we would want to take off 1/2 of the original open position at 100% and then let the last 1/4 ride until expiration. Of course, we must have a plan should it begin to move against us - but let's hope we don't need one. The best thing to do would be to sell the remaining 3/4 position at the 95 cents we originally bought it at - thus locking in at the worst a 16 percent winner on the whole trade. Not great, but by no means bad, as lots of little winners add up quickly. What does it all mean? Well, remember that ANY option play is a gamble and that no system is totally fail-safe - however, this play looked like a contrarian's dream in early December and so far has worked in our favor. So go on and have some fun by using the filters to see if you can find some more plays set-up as nice as the CSCO did. You don't have to buy anything for real, just write down what the price of the option would have been the day you could have bought it and how much money you would have made or lost after a few weeks. The results might just surprise you! We will check in on last week’s TASR move next week – “is it still running?” Good Luck with your trading and please use the materials at Zacks.com and the Option Research Center provided by Schaefer’s Investment Research. To learn more about the High Open Interest Position screen, click here. a) A Contrarian’s View of 2005 Will the bond market surprise investors for the second straight
year? Bernie Schaeffer says it’s possible and has factored it
into his contrarian call for 2005. Learn what to expect this
year and read about three options in the Aggressive Portfolio. More... b) Time to Refresh and Correct Jeff Carter and his team are bullish, but still stress the
importance of ‘put protection.’ Be ready for a likely rally at
the end of January through this expert’s options
recommendations. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/20/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| ORBOTECH LTD | ORBK | 10.86% |
| NOAH HOLDING | NOAH | 9.92% |
| SONIC FOUNDR | SOFO | 9.45% |
| VIPSHOP HOLD | VIPS | 9.20% |
| RENEWABLE EN | REGI | 8.98% |
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