Tuesday - January 25, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
As Ben Zacks mentioned in the December 23rd comments, he expected profit-taking to develop in the first few weeks of the New Year. The noteworthy element was the extent to which the brunt of the sell-off was borne by the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ. While the overall market did pull back, Ben doesn’t think it is indicative of what is to come throughout 2005. He does have a feeling, though, that the outperformance of stocks in those indices over the last 5 years is in its last inning. If you will recall, in 2003, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were up 50% and 45%, respectively, and 2004 added another 17% to the Russell and 9% to the NASDAQ. This is not to say there won’t be tremendous opportunities in selected industry groups within those indices in 2005, but on a broader basis, Ben predicts that investors’ emphasis will move to the large-cap multi-nationals. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - As we enter the New Year, there’s still plenty of cash to be invested; so Ben is not concerned that the present pullback will gain downside momentum. Expect a lot of rotation as legislative initiatives and economic data unfold. Ben believes the market will now stay in its new trading range for some time. He told you on December 7th of last year that the S&P established a new, higher trading range between 1,140-1,200. The market did close at 1,213 and change on three of the last four trading days of 2004. Ben thinks that the market will follow the economy’s lack of conviction as we ride another roller coaster until the 1st quarter earnings reports and outlooks for the rest of the first half of 2005 become clearer. Ben continues to believe that multi-national corporations remain the best investments for 2005. He will obviously scrutinize earnings reports and outlooks, but those companies provide the best opportunities for returning value to shareholders through buybacks, dividends and M&A activities. They are also the prime beneficiaries of a weak dollar. Eastman Chemical Company and Kennametal Inc. have been added to the Focus List. Two weeks ago, Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE: EMN) was added to the Focus List and, unfortunately, issued an earnings warning the very next day. Chemical prices continue to rise across the board due to strong demand from emerging economies like China and India. Demand for chemicals has been outstripping supply, placing upward pressure on prices. Exposure to the chemical sector via EMN is a slight hedge against our oil stocks. The company pays a 3% dividend yield, which is quite attractive in this environment. A noteworthy point is that they did not reduce their hefty dividend even during the recent deep industry trough. Companies that paid dividends performed well in 2004 and this is likely to continue in 2005. Ben also added Kennametal (NYSE: KMT) in order to increase exposure in the industrial products sector. KMT raised their earnings and sales outlook on Jan. 14 for the second quarter and the full year due to end-market strength and market share gains. KMT now expects to earn $0.74/share in their second quarter vs. the Zacks consensus estimate of $0.66/share. KMT is also forecasting fiscal year June ‘05 earnings to come in between $3.05/share to $3.15/share, which is above the Zacks consensus of $2.98/share. Analysts had been slightly raising earnings estimates prior to today’s announcement, and we expect them to continue raising their estimates. Analysts are currently estimating $3.60 (16% earnings growth for fiscal year ’06), with several as high $3.95 to $4.00. Proven results. Consistently profitable. Ben Zacks` track-record speaks for itself. His Timely Buy portfolio has beaten the S&P 500 every single year since inception in 1996. $10,000 invested in this strategy since inception would now be worth $66,194 vs. only $17,919 invested in the S&P 500. Learn more about Ben Zacks and his profitable stock picking system now! Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=158. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b) U.S. Stocks Set to Outperform Donald Rowe says investors should keep their money here at home, since he expects the U.S. stock market to experience a record-breaking year. Get advice on which stocks could help you harness the momentum. More... c) A Game of Stock Market Ping-Pong Dr. Melvin Pasternak says the bulls and bears have been playing a little stock market ping-pong. Find out how the major indices are dealing with this game and read about this expert’s careful stock picking in this volatile, uncertain environment. More... Richard Rhodes suggests that hyper to fast growing stocks are on track for a slowdown. Read how recent news from eBay and Qualcomm will impact the market, and then discover a few names from this expert’s Trading Portfolio. More... e) Yahoo`s Q4 Results Show Online Ad Space Humming Yahoo`s recently-reported quarter bodes well for the online ad space, according to Bill Martin and Matt Ragas. Get information on the quarter and learn about the prospects for two up-and-comers in the space. More... Gregory Spear highlights an electrical products company that`s an indirect beneficiary of the housing boom. Read about this somewhat undiscovered company and how it could help energize your portfolio. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: All Star Top Picks Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today we will
uncover the current top picks of 5 Star analysts in a hot sector
(a.k.a. All Star Top Picks). Why? First, it makes sense to tap
into industries that have potential to outperform the market.
Second, within that sector you want to be on board the stocks
with the best prospects. To help us uncover these top picks we
employ the keen insights of 5-Star analysts. Who are they? Check
out the "About Zacks All Star Analyst Survey" section below. This week we explore the Precious Metals Industry All the pieces are in place for a high gold price that should benefit the entire industry, and yet several gold companies are finding difficulty in generating profits. Analysts vary on what to expect from these issues in the soon-to-be reported fourth quarter and going forward into 2005, but many believe that the environment for gold will remain favorable through at least the first half of the year. Presently, the precious metals industry rests with a respectable Zacks Industry Rank of 2.50, according to Nick Raich’s “Weekly Earnings and Sector Update,” which places it 22nd out of more than 200 industries. GFMS, a precious metals consultancy, recently released its Publication of Gold Survey 2004 – Update 2, in which the group announced that the first half of 2005 should see renewed market vigor despite the recent modest correction in the gold price. In fact, GFMS is looking for a rally over early December’s 16-year high at $454.20, but not above the 1988 high of $483.90. Nevertheless, the organization expects the first half to average around $447. Investment will be the prime driver of this rally, according to GFMS, due to such economic factors as ongoing dollar weakness, the US fiscal deficits, and low real interest rates. Many analysts agree that the slumping dollar will be a big factor for a respectable gold price for a significant portion of 2005. But what will that mean for gold companies? Several have been unable to take advantage of the environment due to other factors, such as high fuel prices, aging mines, and higher exploration spending. According to a December 8th, 2004 research report from Pacific International Securities, “we believe gold companies will trade at higher levels over the next year. Investors should take advantage of short term weaknesses and buy the Gold’s on dips created by US$ corrections.” However, analysts have different approaches to this space, which underscores the importance of their advice before venturing into this complex arena. While some companies have had problems with profits, there are always issues making the most a favorable environment for any number of reasons. Analysts can help you uncover those companies best positioned for the future. The answers to these questions are found in the remainder of this All Star Top Picks article at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1451. To see the full All Star Survey with access to all ratings, research and stock picks, then visit: http://at.zacks.com/?id=12. These are the best stock picks from the best stock pickers in the business. This portfolio only includes stocks recommended by five or more of the 5-Star analysts based on stock picking performance. In 2003 it gained 46.6% nearly doubling the performance of the S&P 500. See the full portfolio at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=13. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Oil and security have been hot sectors in which to invest, but is their moment over? The Experts detail why “Security” with a capital S guarantees further profit opportunities. More... Kevin Matras looks at Cash Flows (and increasing Cash Flows) for a winning stock picking strategy. Find out how it’s consistently beaten the market year after year and get 3 of its latest picks for 2005. More... 3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Charles River Assoc. (CRAI) - Growth Through Acquisitions Bowater, Inc. (BOW) - Expect a Large Fourth Quarter Loss Robust Euro Helps Mediterranean Stocks Pricing Competition May Temper Insurance Gains Hip Deep in Fourth Quarter Earnings 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight… Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +32.9% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +11.8% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 168.4% annually (11.81% vs. 4.40% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 40 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffer’s Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffer’s Tools to Profit with Options. Well, so far 2005 hasn't been a very good year if you were long. And one look at our Most Active Put Options filter from Wednesday, January 19 shows the crowd is trying to make some money to the downside, as puts are flying off the table. A closer look at the results though, showed something that caught my eye and that was Massey Energy (MEE) made the list. The company is one of the leading coal miners in the U.S. and has been on a tear the past twelve months, as the shares have gained over 60 percent. This is a stock that I've seen in the news before and it making this list made me want to delve a little deeper into the data. On the list we find that the April 30 put was one of our most active puts on the day. As I said before, considering the gains the stock has had in the past, it is intriguing that the options crowd would be betting against this company. But this is exactly what we look for from our Contrarian-based approach - which is skepticism toward outperformers is a sign that there is still money on the sidelines. Now sure, one day of people buying puts doesn't mean the crowd is bearish, but one look at some of the quantitative data reveals - that YES, the crowd isn't a fan of this stock. Exactly what we want to see. Breaking down the sentiment factors a little more we find that the firm's Schaeffer's Put/Call Open Interest Ratio (SOIR) stands at 1.74, higher than 83 percent of the readings over the past year. This simply means that short-term option players are extremely bearish, based on the past year's worth of results. Then we see that 10 percent of the float is sold short. It’s safe to say that this is a very high level of shorts against the stock and any further good news could force these bearish bets to cover and thus provide another round of buying pressure. The final area that we like to look at is what the analysts are thinking. And not surprisingly, they aren't impressed with this stock yet, as there are only three "buy" recommendations out of 10 total recommendations. We view this very bullishly, as it gives them plenty of room for future upgrades should the stock continue its impressive assault higher. Well, I've seen enough and for fun let's say we go ahead and buy the April 30 calls. Yes, that's right, going against the crowd. As of 11:00 a.m. on Thursday you could have bought this option for $6.40. We'll check back in on this position after a month or so to see how we did. What does this all mean? – First off, ANY option is a high level of risk. No system is fail safe – however, if we stick to our methodology and let the winners ride and cut the losers off before they get too big, over time the results should come out in our favor. Good Luck with your trading and please use the materials at Zacks.com and the Option Research Center provided by Schaefer’s Investment Research.To learn more about the Most Active Put Options filter, click here. Jeff Carter and his team expect a rally toward the end of January, once the market has time to refresh. Use a recent option recommendation from this expert to make sure you’re ready. More... b) Take Two and Call in the Morning Dr. Edward Olmstead details two bullish option trades that you may want to take into consideration. Get his insight on a trade from the construction industry and one from health care. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/22/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| ALLIANCE FIB | AFOP | 12.41% |
| SCIENTIFIC L | SCIL | 8.00% |
| OLD SECOND B | OSBC | 6.16% |
| AMERICAN VAN | AVD | 3.32% |
| MAXWELL TECH | MXWL | 3.02% |
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