Wednesday - February 9, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1509. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
Last month saw very cautious and defensive trading as we headed into the Iraqi election. Crude oil prices soared above $50 a barrel as talk of civil war in Iraq and disruption in its oil fields led the news. As a result, investors raised cash as a defensive measure until some of these uncertainties clear up. Dennis Slothower can't help but liken this to labor pains, which our capital markets have felt as democracy struggles to be born in Iraq. Until Slothower knows how this child does in its first few days of life and whether its mother, the United States, can protect this child, he wants you to be prepared for the unpredictable. There are many hungry wolves that are determined to destroy democracy over there. Slothower was a bit blindsided by the extent of the correction last month and how fast the market rolled out of bed. The last few weeks of December ended with a sense of optimism in the air. The economic numbers showed our economy to be growing at about a 4% growth rate. The uncertainties over the presidential election were cleared, and the market responded enthusiastically to this news. More important, the indexes had just made new 52-week highs, with the Russell 2000 index finishing out the year at an all-time high. As if someone blew a whistle on the first trading day of January, investors started a stampede to the exits. The first three days of January are usually good days for the market, but this time we saw the worst market breadth since 1926.The last time the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell during January's first three weeks was way back in 1982, a recession year- indeed, the worst since the 1930s. Slothower knows the markets have been bracing for the potential of rough times ahead, and many uncertainties look very threatening. Many times in the investing game, the big money is made by sitting on the sidelines. Slothower has started to position his portfolios into a defensive posture as we enter February. He is looking at a stock market that is deeply oversold, suggesting that a sharp rally can develop anytime. Bearish sentiment has reached levels that in the past have marked important bottoms, so we are setting up nicely for a run to the upside. Slothower’s analysis tells him that a sharp rally for stocks will begin once crude oil breaks down. Until he sees that, he can't tell you that we are out of the woods just yet. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Many times in the investing game, the big money is made by sitting on the sidelines. Slothower has started to position his portfolios into a defensive posture as we enter February. He is looking at a stock market that is deeply oversold, suggesting that a sharp rally can develop anytime. Bearish sentiment has reached levels that in the past have marked important bottoms, so we are setting up nicely for a run to the upside. Slothower’s analysis tells him that a sharp rally for stocks will begin once crude oil breaks down. Until he sees that, he can't tell you that we are out of the woods just yet. At this time, Slothower’s sources on Wall Street tell him the institutions are trading defensively, with blue chip stocks being the investment of the day over growth stocks. Hopefully, this will change, but for now the big boys are not expecting dynamic growth with crude oil at $40 a barrel and a Federal Reserve that is raising short-term interest rates. For now, he wants to stay defensive. There are so many loose cannons that can go off anytime, and Slothower certainly doesn't want to be caught in their crosshairs. Many times in the investing game, you win by doing nothing. He wants to avoid losses now and keep a careful eye on the stock market. There will be “blue skies over the white cliffs of Dover” very soon. Stellent, Inc. (NASDAQ: STEL) is a global provider of content management software solutions that enable fast implementations and generate quick, broad user adoption. It has a product set consisting of two main categories: Universal Content Management Software and Content Components Software. For the six months ended 9/30/04, total revenues rose 41% to $50.6 million. Competitive Technologies, Inc. (AMEX: CTT) provides technology transfer, selling and licensing services focused on the technology needs of its customers to match those requirements with commercially viable technology solutions. For the three months ended 10/31/04, revenues increased 78% to $2.4 million. Net income totaled $968,000, up from $345,000. During my 24-year career as a money manager, I’ve tested hundreds of market indicators. I’ve fine-tuned my strategy using specific indicators that work together to predict the market with incredible accuracy. My indicators are pointing to a strong bull market in 2004. I don’t want you to miss a single day of what I’m convinced will be a spectacular bull market. Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1489. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Kelley Wright, editor of Investment Quality Trends, looks at
how some investors like to lose and actually win by losing
money. This is not the mantra for most investors. Find out if
you’re one of those people without even knowing it. More... c) SeaChange Warning Causes After-hours Drop Paul McWilliams breaks down the recent warning from SeaChange,
and explains why he would still be more tempted to pick up
Harmonic in the event of weakness. More... d) J2 Shares Up On Strong Financial Results j2 Global Communications had a strong fourth quarter, and Ian
Wyatt believes the company`s shares will appreciate moving
forward. Read this expert`s analysis. More... Ron Rowland is once again writing about oil prices and its
relationship to stocks. Learn how the relationship is getting
more complex. Then discover why this mutual fund expert is not
buying into the “January effect” argument. More... Jack Schannep says the outlook for the market this year is
reasonable. Find out why this expert is not relying on
January’s market performance as an indicator of what’s in
store for 2005. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1386.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: Screen of the Week Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today is the
latest installment of Screen of the Week from Kevin Matras. Each
week Kevin shares with you another winning screen he has
discovered using the Research Wizard software from Zacks
Investment Research. http://at.zacks.com/?id=1388 “Upgrades and Revisions -– A Winning Strategy for Beating the Market” This week, I’m going to highlight a screening strategy that primarily focuses on stocks with Increasing Earnings Estimates and Rating Upgrades. Studies have shown that “earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force driving stock prices.” And stocks receiving upward EPS revisions will generally see the brokers that cover them upgrade their ratings too. This screen generates on average only 8-10 stocks per month, has an excellent win ratio and has shown consistently impressive returns, year after year after year. The Parameters to this Strategy are: Zacks Rank = 1 (The Zacks Rank is probably one of the best, if not the best rating system out there.) % Change Q1 Estimates over the last 4 weeks >= 0 (earnings with fresh upward revisions) % Rating Change over 4 weeks >= 0 (since analysts have such a huge upside bias, I’m excluding anything that’s been even slightly downgraded) P/E using 12 mo. Forward EPS Estimates <= 65 (that’s right, 65) % Change Actual EPS Q0/Q-1 >= 0 (positive EPS growth this quarter over last) and % Change Actual EPS Q-1/Q-2 >= 0 (positive EPS growth last quarter over the one before that) (In other words, two quarters of positive EPS growth.) % Change Actual EPS F0/F-1 >= 0 (positive EPS growth this year over last) 5 Year Historical EPS Growth >= 17 (yes, 17) Last EPS Surprise >= 0 (no negative surprises allowed) Price/Sales ratio <= 4 (actually, I had great success with the Price/Sales ratio being between 2, 3 and 4, but I went with 4 because it didn’t narrow down the stock selection so much, ... but if you want to narrow it down, tighten the ratio up a bit) And finally, the stocks all had to be trading at a minimum of $3 or higher. The Results: I ran a series of tests over the last 4 year time span (thru 2004), as well as a series of tests for each of the last 4 yrs. individually. I rebalanced the portfolio every four weeks and started each run on different start dates so each test would be rebalanced over a different set of four-week periods. (This exercise was done to eliminate coincidence and verify robustness.) Over the last 4 years, this strategy has shown an average annualized gross return of 63.7% a year, with an average win ratio (winning periods divided by the total number of periods) of 72%. And again, it produces on average of 8-10 stocks for your portfolio each month. To break it down further; in 2001, the average annualized gross returns were 55.8% with an average win ratio of 71%. In 2002, the average annualized gross returns were 35.8% with an average win ratio of 64%. In 2003, the average annualized gross returns came in at a whopping 126.4%. (In fact, even the smallest run produced a gross return of over 100%.) The average win ratio came in at 85%! And in 2004, the average annualized gross returns were up 38.8% with an average win ratio of 67%. This strategy comes loaded with the Research Wizard program and is called; Upgrades and Revisions2. Here’s 3 stocks from this week’s list (2/7/05) that look ready to breakout.
Get the rest of the stocks on this list and start using this winning strategy in your own portfolio. Sign up now for your free trial to the Research Wizard and start making better decisions today. Click here to learn more. All the Screen of the Week strategies are created and back-tested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard and Free Trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1388. Discover all the Free Screening Tools on Zacks.com at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1389. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ALL STAR TOP PICKS Staff Your Portfolio with Business Services Favorable trends could lift the business services industry in
2005, so investors may want to focus on their core objective of
generating profit and outsource the heavy lifting to the All
Star analysts. Read about five recommendations from this space. More... EARNINGS & SECTOR UPDATE With three quarters of all S&P stocks already reporting their fourth quarter figures, the markets are already looking to Q1. Get the projections and which industries are leading the way. More...
3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Manpower, Inc. (MAN) - Expect a Strong Second Half of `05 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) - Missed EPS Consensus Machinery Companies Benefit from High Materials Prices Commercial Real Estate Keeps Humming
4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Model Portfolios Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today we feature one of our exclusive model portfolios on Zacks.com (All Star Analyst). See below for highlighted stocks currently in these profitable portfolios.
This exclusive portfolio contains only those stocks recommended by 5 or more of the best stock pickers on Wall Street based upon performance (aka All Star Analysts). Here are 2 stocks currently appearing in the All Star Analyst Portfolio. Cytyc Corporation (NASDAQ: CYTC): Earlier this month, members of the United Auto Workers agreed to a six-year contract with Caterpillar, evading a strike. The deal also ended an uncomfortable situation where workers at four plants stayed on the job without a contract as the two sides negotiated. Such news should give Caterpillar a shot in the arm as it looks to improve upon its third quarter numbers, in which earnings per share and revenues improved upon year-ago totals. The company said its entire value chain is responding to the strongest recovery it’s every seen across the broad spectrum of markets it serves. To continue your research on CAT, click here. Ingersoll-Rand Company Ltd. (NYSE: IR) announced in late December that it has entered into an agreement to acquire the remaining 70% interest in Italy-based CISA S.p.A. for a purchase price of about Euro 200 million in cash. CISA manufactures an array of security and safety products. Ingersoll-Rand acquired a 30% interest in the first quarter of 2002. The company said the acquisition expands the geographic reach of its security and safety business and provides an established and proven European platform to pursue global growth opportunities. Given Ingersoll-Rand’s solid performance in the past and its growing opportunities internationally, it’s easy to see why the All Stars are sticking close to this company. To continue your research on IR, click here. Which brokerage analysts are the best stock pickers in their field and what stocks do they recommend today? Find out here with the Zacks All Star Analyst Survey, the best way to find those rare few analysts whose recommendations are worth following. http://at.zacks.com/?id=1419
Long-term investors take note. The stocks in the portfolio must be on the core recommended list of at least three of the top 14 brokerage firms. These stocks tend to be large-cap, "blue chip" companies and is for conservative, long-term investors. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a perfect example of a large-cap company that continues to deliver the goods, prompting brokerage firms to continue recommending this software powerhouse. The company got off to a good start in its fiscal year as it continued to experience growth in its commercial and consumer businesses. Its consumer-focused businesses include the popular Xbox® consoles and games, and revenue for Server and Tools jumped +19% in its fiscal first quarter due to broad platform strength from Windows Server TM, SQL Server TM, and Exchange Server. Microsoft will report its another quarter next week with four top brokerage firms continuing to recommend it as a long-term Core Holding. To continue your research on MSFT, click here. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is poised to continue its steady stream of success if 2005, especially if 2005 turns out to be as solid for integrated oil as some analysts believe. In its third quarter, the company reported that upstream earnings increased $1,227 million, reflecting higher average crude and natural gas prices, while downstream earnings advanced $490 million, reflecting improved worldwide refining conditions. Exxon Mobil has proven that it has what it takes to take advantage of favorable market conditions leading several top brokerage firms to list XOM on their Focus Lists. Investors may want to take a cue from those brokerage firms. To continue your research on XOM, click here. 5. ZACKS TOOLBOX Zacks.com is first and foremost a free resource to help you make more profitable stock picks. In this space each week, we will provide insights into various tools and data points provided on Zacks.com, and how to use them to improve your portfolio's performance. Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
Of course they do! Virtually all investors agree that these events trigger changes in stock prices. So, the next logical question is; How are you staying on top of these changes for the stocks that you follow? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then read on to discover the unique benefits of our free Portfolio Tracker and Daily Portfolio Update emails. Most leading investment web sites offer portfolio trackers. Their main function is to provide you updates on the value of your portfolio and individual positions at any given time. That’s all well and good, but how do they help you grow your portfolio? We designed our Portfolio Tracker to deliver timely information that can help you execute buy and sell decisions to maximize portfolio returns. This information breaks down into 4 areas: 1) Broker Recommendation Changes: As discussed in previous commentaries, changes in broker recommendations can greatly affect the near-term price movement of a stock. You definitely want to know if the Street is moving for or against your stocks. If the latter, it may be a strong indication to lower or close out your position. 2) Earnings Reports: In the Daily Portfolio Update emails we provide the dates of upcoming earnings announcements, current earnings estimates and then actual earnings results. A company that beats earnings will most likely rise. Unfortunately one that misses will tumble immediately after reporting results and most likely continue its descent in the weeks and months that follow. Be prepared to react by following the results posted in the emails. 3) Earnings Estimate Revisions: If you have followed Zacks.com in the past, then you probably already know about our investment studies that have proven “earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices”. So every day we report all estimate changes for the stocks in your portfolio. If you want to learn more about the power of earnings estimate revisions, then download our free report at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1617. 4) Zacks Rank: This exclusive stock indicator takes the analysis of earnings estimates to the next level. It is an easily quantifiable system to help you make buy/sell/hold decisions on the stocks you follow. Again, if you want to learn more, then download our free report at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1617. This information is available on a 24/7 basis through your personal portfolio account on Zacks.com and then after the markets close via Daily Portfolio updates emails so you armed for the next trading day. Already have a User Name and Password for Zacks.com? Then log in at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1618 to create a new portfolio. Need to start a Zacks.com account? Then go to: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1620. After your create your portfolio, then you can access it anytime by going to Zacks.com, then click on “Portfolios” tab and then log in to your portfolio. Plus you will immediately start receiving the Daily Portfolio Update emails after the markets close. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=75. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=72. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | ||||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/17/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| VIASAT INC | VSAT | 19.35% |
| OLD SECOND B | OSBC | 5.76% |
| GAMCO INVEST | GBL | 4.61% |
| CORNING INC | GLW | 4.47% |
| SYNCHRONOSS | SNCR | 4.23% |
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