Tuesday - March 15, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
Over the past month, Bill Martin and Matt Ragas have twice taken profits in Intermix Media (AMEX: MIX). On February 15th, they sold 30% of their holding, booking a 254% gain in the process. A few weeks later, on March 4th, they sold 25% of their remaining MIX holding, this time for an even bigger gain of 350%. Even with today’s (3/8) -2% decline in shares of MIX to the $8.51 level, the stock is up more than 50% in 2005, and insiders, like Martin and Ragas, have been understandably locking in some profits. Yesterday (3/7), a new Form 4 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission hit the tape, showing that Brett Brewer, a director and the President of MIX, recently sold all 186,000 MIX shares that he held directly. The sale was made at an average price of $8.90 per share. According to the filing, Brewer holds no options in MIX, though a July 2004 proxy filing indicates that Brewer had 1 million stock options exercisable sometime last summer. Martin and Ragas put in a call to MIX’s investor relations department to clarify this issue, but they haven’t heard back yet. Regardless, Brewer is not the only MIX insider who has recently put some money in the bank. Michael Mincieli, VP of Finance, exercised and sold a little more than 28K shares of MIX on Feb. 28th. Mincieli’s strike price was between $1.87 and $3.89 per share, and he sold the stock at $7.25 per share. Meanwhile, Adam Goldenberg, President of MIX’s Performance Marketing group, sold about 87K shares in late February in the $7.00 to $7.12 range. Given the stock’s sharp appreciation in the early months of this year, Martin and Ragas are not surprised to see insiders booking some profits. Brewer, for example, has been with the company since 1999, and he’s been through all the trials and tribulations at MIX. For him personally, the sales were probably long awaited compensation for sticking with MIX. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Regardless of the fact that it’s fairly typical to see some insider selling after a stock has had a big charge (remember MIX was a $4 stock just last December), Martin and Ragas still don’t like to see much selling in one of their portfolio holdings. While these sales don’t change Martin and Ragas’ outlook on MIX, they are a good reminder that, if you haven’t been doing some scaled profit-taking on MIX like they have as the stock has ramped, now is a good time to book some gains. Martin and Ragas lowered their long term outlook on MIX last week and noted in their Week In Review, ``What can you say? MIX has been a grand slam for us, and the stock continues to trade extremely well. At this point, we have no idea how far the stock will run (much depends on how well new management uses its newfound currency, and whether legacy holder Brad Greenspan sells en masse), so the best strategy is just to keep steadily peeling off shares as it rolls higher.`` A holding in their Special Opportunity portfolio, Martin and Ragas first began buying MIX in January 2004 at just $1.95 per share. They added to their holding in March 2004 at $2.10, and they have taken profits four times, booking the aforementioned gains of 254% and 350%, as well as earlier gains of 87% and 200%. Shares of MIX closed down -2.6% today (3/8) to $8.51, putting Martin and Ragas up about 328% on the name based on their average cost basis of $1.99. FindProfit has generated market beating returns for each of the past three years. Between 2002 and 2004 its portfolio returned 73%, 53% and 19%, consistently beating the market. A $100,000 investment in FindProfit’s top portfolio at inception would be worth $340,000 today. That’s a gain of over 240% since 2002! Sign up and you’ll receive access to FindProfit’s 50 long and short ideas, real-time trade alerts, and 5 ``Must Own`` Stocks Report. Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=151. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Paul Tracy says that while domestic growth seems to be
moderating, several overseas markets are experiencing the sort
of economic growth that mature markets can only dream of. Read
about an ETF fund that can help investors benefit from growth
abroad. More... c) Benefiting from Global Diversification Vivian Lewis writes about the importance of international
diversification, and how it can help you reduce risk in your
portfolio. Read this expert’s commentary and then take a look
at some stocks from her Buy and Hold portfolio. More... Richard Lehmann notes that long-term rates have stayed rather
calm even while short-term rates increase. Find out what the
Fed is trying to accomplish and how it can impact certain
income securities. Then read about a pair of corporate bond
recommendations. More... Dr. Melvin Pasternak says the S&P 500 may enter a period of
profit-taking after its solid performance. Read this expert’s
technical analysis and find out which zones of support to watch. More... f) First Cash Financial Deserves Attention Judy Alster and her team highlight a stock from the alternative
financial services industry that you may want to watch. Get
this expert’s in-depth analysis on First Cash Financial
Services. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: Earnings & Sector Update Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today’s
commentary is the Earnings & Sector Update from Nick Raich,
Director of Research for Zacks. His weekly article explores
the important trends in recent and upcoming earnings data. This
report is a must for any investor seeking to buy into the
hottest industry sectors and avoid those out of favor. See
the full report at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1363. Earnings & Sector Update Over 97% of companies in the S&P 500 have released fourth quarter 2004 earnings. The results have exceeded our expectations. We feel very confident the final fourth quarter 2004 results will mark the fifth consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 20%. As we factor in Zacks estimates for the companies yet to report with the companies that have already released results, we believe the final fourth quarter earnings results for the S&P 500 will easily exceed the beginning of the quarter consensus estimate of 15% growth. Our best estimate is for final earnings growth of 28%. Strong year- over-year earnings gains in the Materials, Energy and Technology sectors have been driving the results. In total, 484 S&P 500 companies have released fourth quarter 2004 earnings results as of 3/11/05. Of those that reported, 82% have met or exceeded their estimates. Average earnings growth has been 29% from last year with sales growth up 13%. Despite sounding like fantastic numbers, we believe the market has shifted its attention to next quarter where the current first quarter 2005 consensus earnings growth figure is only for 10.5% growth. In our view, this figure is too low and we expect final the first quarter 2005 earnings growth figure to be in the mid-teens. Although if oil prices continue to rise, we believe first quarter figures will only slightly exceed current earnings expectations and forward guidance will not be raised. If this occurs, we believe it will not be good for a rising stock market. We caution, without the raised earnings guidance, the market could face continued near-term selling pressure. As the remaining companies report earnings this month, focus is soon going to shift to first quarter 2005 preannouncements. Over the past thirty days, we believe earnings guidance has been relatively positive with 1.47 companies lowering estimates for every company raising it. Over the past five years, this negative to positive ratio has averaged roughly three to one. Therefore, the current guidance should be viewed favorably. In our opinion, this further supports our belief that current first quarter estimates are too low. Companies in the Utility sector have been warning the most as measured by a 5:1 negative to positive ratio. Consumer Staples, Finance and Medical companies also had warnings that ran above the overall average. Within the Basic Materials and Oils-Energy sectors, more companies were raising earnings estimates than lowering them over the past month. In fact, S&P 500 companies in the Basic Material and Energy sectors actually had their 1Q 2005 estimates raised by almost a full percentage point over the past week. Every other sector within the S&P 500 either had 1Q 2005 estimates that remained unchanged or declined. Of course, we will closely monitor the rest of the guidance this month, which will ultimately help us determine how first quarter and even the remainder of 2005 will go for earnings. 484 companies in the S&P 500 have released 4Q 2004 earnings results as of 3/11/05. 66% (of the companies) exceeded estimates More at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1363. Table of Contents for Rest of the Report
Click here to read this weeks` full report. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Both sides of the defense & aerospace industry have positive
momentum for 2005. The All Stars have three recommendations
from this space to help your portfolio lift off. More... Two New Screening Ideas to Find Winning Stocks Kevin Matras goes over two of his daily screens that he uses
regularly. One is an EPS Momentum screen that looks for both
price and earnings trends. The other looks at Increasing Prices
and Volume for spotting stocks on the move. See the parameters
and 3 new picks from each screen. More... 3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Seagate Technologies (STX) - Well Ahead of Peers BearingPoint, Inc. (BE) - SEC Investigation Does Not Bode Well Philippine Telecom Awaits New NTC Ruling Trucking Freight Volumes Improve 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight… Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +33.4% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +12.2% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 133.5% annually (12.21% vs. 5.23% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 29 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffer’s Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffer’s Tools to Profit with Options. Today we’ll do something a little different and take a broader look at the overall inter-relationships within the market. A very serious development occurred on Wednesday, March 10 and it has to due with interest rates. The 10-year T-note’s interest rate soared to its highest level in eight months. There are a few reasons for the jump but the most obvious one is inflation is beginning to creep back into the economy. Higher inflation means higher interest rates, which in turn hurts rate-sensitive stocks. And exactly what is a rate- sensitive stock you might ask? Well try banks. Higher interest rates are bad for banks because it hurts the value of their portfolios, as most of what bank’s own (such as bonds) move inversely with what interest rates are doing. Even though this is one of the more simple financial relationships out there, most people seem to forget about it. Let me say it again, high interest rates are bad for banks. Another reason to expect higher interest rates is the action in the commodities world. Higher commodity prices are inflationary and this of course, brings on higher interest rates. This should be easy to figure out that commodities are trading higher as every time you fill up your tank it hurts the wallet a little more. Currently oil is right near all-time high levels, but it doesn’t stop there as coffee, silver, and gold, among others, are all up near multi-year highs. So now that we have a good feeling that bank stocks might be in trouble we go to our filters and find some banking stocks. After just minutes a searching we find that Citigroup (C) turns up on the High Open Interest Call Position filter. We find that it has a good deal of bullish calls at the March 50 strike, exactly what we wanted to see. With options if you see a bunch of open interest at a certain strike it will be very hard for the price to move above that level, as this open interest usually acts as resistance. So in this case, we can make a good bet that C won’t be much above 50. Now some traders might stop there, but not us. We must look at the other areas of sentiment, to determine that the crowd is bullish. This is done because from our contrarian point of view, we like to see lots of bullishness as a sign that there isn’t much money left on the sidelines to push it much higher. As it turns out, short-term option players are very bullish, as its put/call ratio checks in at 0.69. This simply means that more people are betting bullish calls then bearish puts – a good sign for a bearish play. Also there are few bearish short positions against the shares, as it would take less then three days for all of the shorts to cover their bearish bets. Anything under three usually greatly reduces the chances of a short covering rally on any good news – again a good sign for us. Finally, the analysts love the stock as there is only one “sell” rating out of 17 total recommendations. This tells us that there is lots of room for downgrades from this optimistic group. So there you have it. By examining how the market works, we can make an assumption that banking stocks might be hit should interest rates continue to gain. Then by using the filters on this page we found C. Then the last and most fun part, is doing a little research and determining that yes, the crowd is in love with this stock – therefore watch out below should it start to underperform. In conclusion, remember that nothing is fool-proof and when your playing with options there is a very good chance that if you are wrong you might lose everything you invested. But don’t let that scare you, because all it takes is a few nice trades and you will have more than enough to cover for those losses. To learn more about the High Open Interest filter, click here. Dr. Edward Olmstead outlines two short-term option trades that
could benefit your portfolio. Read about these two plays in the
communications industry. More... b) Breaking Through the Trading Range With the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials recently breaking
above their trading ranges, Ken Trester expects this rally to
continue. Learn about a couple option trades executed by this
expert. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/21/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| SCIENTIFIC L | SCIL | 8.00% |
| NATUS MEDICA | BABY | 6.11% |
| SUMMER INFAN | SUMR | 6.02% |
| RADIANT LOGI | RLGT | 5.32% |
| NEW ORIENTAL | EDU | 4.51% |
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