Wednesday - April 13, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1509. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
In late March, Biogen-Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) and Elan (NYSE: ELN) announced another case of PML (progressive multi-focal leukoencephalopathy); a rare and often-fatal brain disease that has been linked to multiple sclerosis therapy Tysabri, bringing the total to three. Apparently, the patient who died in 2003 was originally classified as succumbing to a form of brain cancer and had received eight doses of Tysabri over the course of 18 months. Nonetheless, with one more confirmed case of PML, shares of Biogen-Idec and Elan were pounded by the market as negative sentiment about the fate of Tysabri took hold. As Nadine Wong and her team see it, there are several outcomes for the drug. First, Tysabri won’t be returning to the market. Second, Tysabri would have extensive warning labels and its use confined to patients not tolerating or failing current therapies. If so, a black box labeling would cause many physicians to be reluctant about prescribing Tysabri. And third, Tysabri could come back to the market with a limited label, monotherapy with stringent follow-up requirements if no more cases of PML arise. PML can be found in AIDS patients who were treated with high doses of steroids, patients with significant immuno-suppression post-transplant, or in patients with leukemia or lymphoma. High dose of steroids is a significant factor in this disease. Multiple hits to the immune system are more likely to cause the disease than a single hit. PML is not uniformly fatal. About 50% of patients with AIDS and PML stabilize or improve with treatment with anti-retrovirals. Additionally, some patients stabilize or improve when the immunosuppression is taken away. Therefore, there is the chance that this drug will be let back on the market with close follow-up. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - However, there still remains too little information to make a definitive conclusion on Tysabri’s probability of returning to market or its likely commercial potential if it reenters the market. Eventually, more information will become available to help investors make the risk/reward assessment. In regards to the original timeline that Tysabri will return by the fall, it is highly unlikely. There is the potential that the FDA will ask for additional trials based on a lower dose that could delay the drug’s return by 2-4 years. Tysabri was an important improvement over current agents that improved the quality of life for MS patients. BioTech Stock Report is an `information integrator` specializing in biotechnology stocks. We bring together the mass of medical scientific data that is available and interpret it for you. Each report gives a detailed rationale explaining the technology, examining new products, evaluating their potential, the markets and the likely impact it has on a company`s future. Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=148. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b) Hot List Continues its Outperformance of the Market John Reese discusses the market’s first quarter performance.
Find out how the major indices fared versus Reese’s holdings
and read about a few Hot List positions. More... Jack Schannep explains that this bull market may have further
to run. Learn why and read about the seasonal market
performance patterns that this expert has observed. Take a look
at Schannep’s analysis and benefit from his advice. More... Richard Lehmann explains that the real impact of the recent Fed
meeting was a rise in corporate bond and preferred yields.
Discover how these securities reacted and learn about recent
swings in oil prices. Then read about a pair of corporate bonds. More... e) Fear Sells Paul McWilliams says sensationalism is the name of the game
today, not objectivity. Read this expert’s commentary on the
market’s persistent worries and find out why this expert
believes we may be ready for a turn in a positive direction. More... f) The Current Investment Period is at a Crossroads Dennis Slothower says all eyes are now on the earnings season.
Read how the first quarter has historically been a good
indicator of the overall year and find out what it will take
for this expert to get out of his cautious stance. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1386.
2. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: Screen of the Week Zacks.com offers 3 unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today is the
latest installment of Screen of the Week from Kevin Matras.
Each week Kevin shares with you another winning screen he has
discovered using the Research Wizard software from Zacks
Investment Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1388. “’How’ to Create Winning Screens” Each week in this article, I usually go over a unique way to screen for stocks or I publish a proven, profitable screening strategy. But in this week’s article, I wanted to go beyond that and talk a bit about ‘how’ I’m able to do this. For instance, last week, I wrote about a screen that finds both growth and value stocks. It’s a great strategy that has handily beaten the market year after year after year. But the ‘logic’ behind it would have been difficult to recreate in other programs. The idea itself isn’t that esoteric (although it is quite sensible). I was looking for stocks that had growth rates better than 80% of all of the other stocks out there and that had also happened to have P/E ratios that were lower than 80% of all of the other stocks out there too. A pretty powerful combination. And this was done with one of our easy to use ranking methodologies. But try programming that into most screeners, let alone backtesting it to see if it works. In other screens (in fact, in many of my winningest strategies), I’ll routinely create my own custom expressions. Often times I’ll compare one item to another or I’ll combine different items together or even compare an item’s value to its value from a different time period (or periods). It’s quite easy to do. But most programs just can’t do this. Either they don’t have the customization capability or they don’t have the historical data. This kind of flexibility, allows me to extract greater meaning from my screening items. For example; if you read that XYZQ stock (fictitious stock symbol) had a P/E ratio of 40, you would probably have this idea in your mind that it’s ‘over-valued’ or that it’s trading at too many times its earnings. But what if you read that its 40 P/E was actually lower than the average for its industry and that it was actually below its own historical norm. That might cause you to look at it entirely differently, wouldn’t it? Even something as mundane as an average broker rating is given greater meaning. If an average broker rating of a stock is 2, you may think, ‘great’. But what if you saw it steadily eroding from a 1, to a 1.2, to a 1.6, to a 1.8 and now to a 2? You now have a more complete picture. Yes, it’s 2. But why did it go from a 1 to a 2 over the last few weeks? This can be important stuff. And if you had an opportunity to pick the perfect stock, wouldn’t you rather have a stock that’s getting ‘better’ rather than getting ‘worse’? This is what I’m talking about. I don’t mean for this week’s article to sound too much like an advertisement for the Research Wizard, but I always try to convey something important in this column. And as I was going over my screens this weekend (as I always do), I realized that almost all of the strategies that I rely on could not be done in any other program other than the Research Wizard. Even something as ‘simple’ as insuring that you always only get a certain number of stocks in your screen/portfolio each period. That may seem like no big deal, but what if you only had a certain amount of money in your stock account and your desire was to trade an equal dollar weighted portfolio of five stocks each month. Our ‘limiting’ operators, make this possible. But if your strategy routinely produces more than five stocks each period, and you simply can’t facilitate more than five stocks in your account at a time, what good is a ‘more-than-5- stock’ strategy going to do you? So this week, instead of writing about a powerful screening strategy, I decided to write about the powerful program that makes my powerful screening strategies possible. (And yours too.) But to make sure I don’t disappoint, here are five stocks taken from some of my winningest screening strategies (for Mon., 4/11/05); CQB Chiquita Brands International, Inc. (from the Sales & Margins screen, and the Increasing Cash Flows screen) GOT Gottschalks, Inc. (from the Big Money screen) HIBB Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. (came thru the EPS Growth, Past & Present screen, the Filtered Zacks Rank screen, and the Upgrades and Revisions screens) QSI Quality Systems, Inc. (from EPS Growth, Past & Present) RVI Retail Ventures, Inc. (from Big Money) But remember one of the keys to successful screening (aside from having a powerful screener) is in discovering those screens that have produced profitable results in the past. And that’s exactly what you get with the powerful Screening and Backtesting ability of Research Wizard. Try it out for yourself. All the Screen of the Week strategies are created and back-tested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard and Free Trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1388. Discover all the Free Screening Tools on Zacks.com at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1389. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ALL STAR TOP PICKS Despite some recent challenges, fundamentals for the schools
industry remain strong. The All Stars can help you pass the
market’s test with a few recommendations from this growing
space. More... EARNINGS & SECTOR UPDATE 80-85% of S&P Companies Should Meet or Beat the Consensus in Q1 So far, so good for the first quarter earnings season. Use Nick Raich's analysis and industry rankings to stay ahead of the game. More...
3. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY Amphenol Corp. (APH) - Strong End-Market Growth Ethan Allen (ETH) - Worsening Industry Fundamentals Takeover News Dominates Retail Oil Valuations at Peak Levels
4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Model Portfolios Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today we feature our 2 exclusive model portfolios on Zacks.com (All Star Analyst and Brokerage Buy List). See below for highlighted stocks currently in these profitable portfolios.
This exclusive portfolio contains only those stocks recommended by five or more of the best stock pickers on Wall Street based upon performance (aka All Star Analysts). Here are two stocks currently appearing in the All Star Analyst Portfolio. GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) recently announced that it expects fiscal first quarter earnings per share of 16 cents to 17 cents, which was above the consensus at about 15 cents. It also expects same-store sales of +5% to +7%. The company believes that the continued demand for the slimmed down PlayStation 2, and the excitement of PlayStation Portable, should help make 2005 another solid year. GameStop expects earnings per share for the full year to advance +11% to +12%. Meanwhile, the company recently announced that a midnight launch of the previously mentioned PlayStation Portable at many of its 1,800+ stores was a ‘tremendous’ success. To continue your research on GME, click here. Hilton Hotels Corporation (NYSE: HLT): The hotels industry has finally recovered from a long slump and several All Star analysts believe that Hilton Hotels can continue taking advantage. On a comparable basis, the company posted fourth quarter earnings per share of 18 cents, which was ahead of the consensus and year-ago result. Revenue from Hilton’s owned hotels was $542 million, or +2% better than last year. Most of the company’s major owned hotels reported solid results, thanks to increased demand in the business transient and group segments, along with improved pricing power in leisure. Furthermore, Hilton Hotels says that it’s in the early stages of what the company believes will be a period of long-term strength in the industry. To continue your research on HLT, click here. Which brokerage analysts are the best stock pickers in their field and what stocks do they recommend today? Find out here with the Zacks All Star Analyst Survey, the best way to find those rare few analysts whose recommendations are worth following. http://at.zacks.com/?id=1419
Long-term investors take note. The stocks in the portfolio must be on the core recommended list of at least three of the top 14 brokerage firms. These stocks tend to be large-cap, "blue chip" companies and is for conservative, long-term investors. The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) recently reported that earnings per share and sales for fiscal 2004 improved by +22.3% and +12.8% respectively, year-over-year. Furthermore, same-store sales advanced +5.4%. The world’s leading home improvement retailer finds itself recommended by three of the top brokerage firms. During the year, Home Depot said it maintained its disciplined approach to capital allocation by investing $3.9 billion back into its business while returning approximately $4 billion to its shareholders. The company continues to practice its strategy of enhancing the core, extending the business and expanding its markets. To continue your research on HD, click here. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) earlier this month, announced that it signed a definitive agreements to acquire Sybari Software, Inc., a leading provider of security products. The company said it will use this acquisition to further provide its enterprise customers with new solutions to help protect them from malicious software. Microsoft said its goal is to enable businesses to foster collaboration among employees and with partners through technology without exposing their networks and assets to attack by malicious code. The acquisition will help make that possible by focusing on layered defenses, integration with infrastructure, and protection from the latest threats. Four of the top brokerage firms continue to consider Microsoft one of the best large-cap picks for the long-term. To continue your research on MSFT, click here. 5. ZACKS TOOLBOX Zacks.com is first and foremost a free resource to help you make more profitable stock picks. In this space each week, we will provide insights into various tools and data points provided on Zacks.com, and how to use them to improve your portfolio's performance. Every three months the entire investment community enters the hallowed grounds of Earnings Season. Which companies will exceed expectations and reward shareholders? And which stocks implode under the weight of their earnings disappointments? And is there any way to know which is which before it happens? When you consider that earnings are the #1 determinant of stock prices, then you understand why this is the most important time of the year to pay attention to news on your stocks. One of the true strengths of Zacks.com is our coverage of all things earnings related. Here are some of the free tools that you can use from the site to stay on earnings announcements for the stocks that matter to you. Earnings Report Date: When are your companies reporting their earnings? And what is the EPS estimate? Two ways to find out. 1) Full Company Report: Example: Here is the report for GE http://at.zacks.com/?id=1504 You will find "The Next EPS Date" about 1/3 of the way down the page. Plus the estimated earnings are further down in the EPS information section. 2) Earnings Calendar: This can be found on the Earnings home page http://at.zacks.com/?id=1549 Click on any date to see the companies expected to report that day along with EPS estimate. How to Spot Potential Earnings Disappointments: There is no sure fire way to spot stocks that will fail during earnings season. However, there are ways to improve your odds. In general, stocks that have disappointed in past quarters are more likely to disappoint in future quarters. Plus stocks that have seen lower expectations leading up to their announcement date also tend to fall short of the mark more often. The clues to both of these items can be found on the "Estimates" research report. Here is the link to see that page for GE and you can go from there to research any of your stocks http://at.zacks.com/?id=1504. How to Spot Potential Earnings Surprises: This is the inverse story from above. Those stocks that have reported positive surprises in the past are more likely to do so in the future. In addition, earnings estimate increases leading into earnings season is a very good indication as well. However, the simplest way to find these winners is by following the Zacks Rank which concentrates on these same variables. You can either look at the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1551 or screen for Zacks #1 Ranked stocks with the highest past earnings surprises through our custom screener at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1535 Daily Email Updates: Certainly you can come to Zacks.com everyday to track down important earnings updates or you can have the information sent to you every day via email. When you set up a free portfolio tracker on Zacks.com, it also qualifies you to receive our Daily Email Updates that provide all key changes to the stocks you are following including, estimate revisions, upcoming earnings dates, actual earnings reports, broker recommendation changes and the Zacks Rank. To start Daily Email Updates go to: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1550. Earnings Home Page: This is where we have consolidated all of our earnings resources to help investors stay on top of earnings season. Beyond the tools noted above you will also find Earnings headlines and EPS Surprises updated in real-time. Bookmark this page and tune in every day during earning season to find which losers to cut and which stocks are showing breakthrough results. The Earnings Home Page is part of our Research section of the site at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1549. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=75. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=72. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | ||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/22/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| ALLIANCE FIB | AFOP | 9.31% |
| SONIC FOUNDR | SOFO | 7.77% |
| TRI TECH HOL | TRIT | 6.62% |
| A M R CP | AAMRQ | 4.52% |
| FLOWERS FOOD | FLO | 4.31% |
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