Tuesday - April 19, 2005
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go here. Get the latest investment alert technology and receive the most up-to-date Profit from the Pros content as it’s published, in Real Time, with no waiting. Learn more about this free tool at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1452. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
Paul McWilliams and his team entered a market order to buy 3,000 shares of SiRF Technology (NASDAQ: SIRF). He’s starting this new focus stock with only a modest position as he learns more about the company. If he’s lucky, the data will continue to support his outlook and the market will give him a chance to build a larger position at lower prices. However, since a part of McWilliams’ investment thesis is that SIRF will significantly outperform expectations during the second half of 2005, he wants to get in one buy here in case he and his team are right and the market catches on more quickly. In other words, McWilliams is hoping the price falls from here, but he’s hedging his bet by leveraging his multiple buy strategy. SIRF has a very simple business model and only a few products; however, McWilliams and his team happen to like the company. SIRF manufactures GPS chip-sets and supporting software applicable to all forms of GPS integration. These range from dedicated GPS receivers to a wide variety of handheld devices (cell phones, BlackBerry, PDA, etc.) to embedded applications such as OnStar. SIRF has contracts with customers in all of these product categories. SIRF was founded in 1995 and built significant traction in 2004. In 2004, SIRF reported sales of $117.4M and pro forma profits of $0.56 per share. Estimates for the March quarter were lowered considerably following SIRF’s guidance centered at $26.1M and $0.06 per share. The same is true for Q2. The primary reason SIRF lowered guidance is their latest chips are significantly more sensitive to signals from GPS satellites and this required them to rework their software. The SIRF chipsets are highly integrated including an ARM7 processor running at 40MIPS, SRAM, UART, high-speed serial bus and a wide variety of RF (Radio Frequency) functions. The internal IF (Intermediate Frequency) design means there is no need to accommodate IF functions externally. This not only saves cost and power, but also makes for significantly easier integration. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - McWilliams knows of at least eight design wins in cell phone handsets, OnStar embedded applications for vehicles, the BlackBerry 7520 from Reality in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) and most recently, Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN). News of the win at GRMN was the tipping point for McWilliams. Since they were founded, GRMN has always designed their own GPS ASIC’s and, to be candid, they were darn good at it. However, McWilliams learned from one of his field contacts that GRMN has incorporated the newest SIRF chipset in at least a couple of their products. From his perspective, knowing that GRMN takes great pride in their internal designs, this says quite a bit about SIRF. Following their equity financing, SIRF has a very solid balance sheet with $168.6M in net tangible assets ($3.27 per share) and total cash (includes $43.8M that is invested in US Treasury Bonds with maturities longer than one year) of $145.1M ($2.81 per share). This makes the current price marginally attractive. After reviewing their web site, selected analyst reports and transcripts of their conference calls, McWilliams still has much to learn about SIRF. However, at this point he believes the covering analysts are too conservative about SIRF’s prospects for the second half of 2005 and beyond. Due to this, McWilliams believes there is room for upside surprises and the price appreciation these surprises usually drive. Edited by twenty-plus-year semiconductor and technology industry veteran Paul McWilliams, Next Inning provides unbiased technology and semiconductor analysis. Its model portfolio has returned over 230% since inception in 2002. McWilliams, named by SmartMoney Magazine as one of thirty Most Influential Investors in 2000, provides clear, reasoned and well-researched analysis, cutting through the hype to bring subscribers the most up-to-date investment insights in the world of semis and techs. Learn more about this newsletter and free trial offer at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1884. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - b) Preparing for the Onslaught of Earnings Bill Martin and Matt Ragas think the market is oversold in the short run, but are seeing opportunities to selectively put money to work. Discover how these experts plan to act in today’s environment. More... c) Companies That are Poised for Growth Ian Wyatt provides a portfolio update, highlighting some stocks that are poised for growth. Discover some recent news about a few names in the internet and cable TV industries. More... Steve McKee says skill separates investors from gamblers. Learn why betting on index funds is tantamount to playing blackjack and then learn about a trio of highly-ranked funds. More... e) Coke Starting to Look Like a Classic Value Stock Coca-Cola is one of the best-known brands in the world, and has been making a lot of headway internationally. Find out why Paul Tracy says this company is a solid value candidate. More... Despite pressure from rising interest rates, Richard Moroney believes that the popularity of home remodeling will continue to generate profit for Home Depot. Read this expert’s analysis on the world’s leading home-improvement retailer. More... Featured Expert articles are courtesy of the 60+ leading investment newsletters that have partnered with us to create the Zacks Expert Advice service. Check out the Experts section of Zacks.com daily to find profitable stock picks and timely market commentary at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1340.
2. BEST OF ZACKS INDEPENDENT RESEARCH The analysts from Zacks Independent Research create a mountain of insightful equity research everyday of the week. Here you will find the best of that information recently published on Zacks.com. BULL OF THE DAY China Telecom - ADS (CHA) - Still Trading at a Discount. STMicroelectronics (STM) - Lowered Earnings Estimates. Eurotech Offers Diversification Crude Prices Not Expected to Fall
3. WEEKLY COMMENTARY: Earnings & Sector Update Zacks.com offers three unique weekly commentaries that all further
our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today's
commentary is the Earnings & Sector Update from Nick Raich,
Director of Research for Zacks. His weekly article explores
the important trends in recent and upcoming earnings data. This
report is a must for any investor seeking to buy into the
hottest industry sectors and avoid those out of favor. See
the full report at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1363. Earnings & Sector Update First quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week. We expect over 1,200 to release earnings, with over 175 of those companies being in the S&P 500. Based on the relatively positive preannouncement season, we expect 80-85% of the companies in the S&P 500 to once again meet or exceed their consensus earnings estimate. Further support for this can be seen in the first 63 S&P 500 companies that have released first quarter 2005 results. Of those 63 companies, 83% have matched or exceeded their earnings estimate, with an average earnings increase of 18% versus last years first quarter. The consensus estimate for those 63 companies was for 10% earnings growth from last year. We stress that these early reporters are an excellent gauge of how the overall results will shape up. Therefore, it should be of no major surprise that first quarter 2005 earnings should be very good. The Materials and Oil-Energy sectors are expected to post the largest year-over-year earnings gains during the first quarter. The lowest first quarter earnings expectations, among the consensus, are in the Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors. Even though it is great when a company exceeds its consensus estimate, we really do not care all that much about what a company says about it first quarter earnings at this point in time. We are more concerned about the guidance a company gives after reporting earnings. Remember, the stock market is forward looking. Current stock prices usually reflect all pertinent information on a company that is anticipated to occur within the next 6-12 months. Therefore, it will be the guidance and the subsequent changes to second half 2005 earnings estimates that will determine the direction of the stock market over the next several weeks. So far, we are finding many companies reluctant to raise earning guidance in the face of volatile oil prices and rising interest rates. Zacks industry rankings are provided toward the back of this report. The rankings are based on a quantitative model developed by Zacks that focuses on past earnings trends and forward earnings revisions from Wall Street analysts. The model has an excellent track record of outperforming the market. Therefore, the Zacks industry rankings should provide a great starting point for your equity research. More at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1363. Table of Contents for Rest of the Report
Click here to read this weeks` full report. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Tapping the Oil Industry's Well-ness Concerns have crept into the oil industry lately, but the All Stars continue to expect solid returns for certain companies. Read about this industry and three picks from the experts. More... Kevin Matras talks about ‘how’ he creates his winningest screens. And see how you can too. Plus, get five news picks from some of his best strategies. More... 4. TRADING STRATEGIES: Zacks #1 and #5 Additions Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight… Zacks Rank #1 and #5 Additions The Zacks Rank is a powerful stock indicator whose #1 Strong Buys stocks have risen +33.4% on average annual return since 1988 vs. +12.2% for S&P 500. And just as important it tells you which stocks to sell now (Zacks #5). Since 1988 the S&P 500 has outperformed the Zacks #5 Ranked Strong Sells by 133.5% annually (12.21% vs. 5.23% respectively). Learn more about the Zacks Rank following this section. Below you will find all the stocks added to the Zacks #1 and #5 Ranked lists this week.
More. . .
Zacks #1 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Zacks #5 Ranked List: 53 New Additions (alpha by ticker)
More. . .
Zacks #5 Rank List continued...
To see the full list of Zacks #5 Ranked stocks (approx. 200 stocks), then click here. 5. OPTIONS CENTER Zacks has partnered with the leading options experts, Schaeffers Investment Research, to provide you the best options commentary, research and trading tools on the market today. Read below more on Schaeffers Tools to Profit with Options. First things first, how about that Dell May 40 put that we recommended last week? In case you missed it or forgot, we recommended buying a May 40 put (DLQQH) at $2.30 a contract. Well, just five days later that same option was trading at $3.50! That amounts to a nice little gain of 52 percent in ONE WEEK and all because of a few minutes of work… using the Schaeffer's filters from Zacks.com! This week I'm going to do something a little different and instead of looking at the filters on this page, I'll take a look at something very important that Bernie Schaeffer pointed out to us recently - the action in the CBOE Nasdaq Market Volatility Index, better known as the VXN, which measures the implied volatility for the Nasdaq 100 stock index. Now I'll keep things as simple as possible here, because this can get pretty technical and confusing if you let it. The bottom line is a low VXN means that investors are complacent and a high VXN means they are fearful. Now being contrarians, we always want to buy when others are fearful and sell when the crowd is complacent. But what exactly is high and what exactly is low? Well, that is definitely the million dollar question and I honestly can't give an answer. The current level is around 17 and historically this would have long ago marked a top in the market, but since the spring of 2003 the VXN has traded consistently lower - meaning more and more complacency. Whereas, major bottoms and buying opportunities have been marked when the VXN spikes above 50. So from this we can pretty much conclude that the market moves inversely with the VXN. But it only works if newer lows in the VXN are met with higher highs from the market. Over the past few years as we've rallied, numerous market players simply haven't noticed this relationship and have said that a VXN under 30 is bearish. Then a VXN under 25 is bearish, followed by a VXN of 20 - all while the market keeps on chugging higher. Bernie on the other hand, has followed this trend very closely and used it to better his trading. But what he pointed out on Monday was a real eye opener. He noted that the VXN was making a new low, yet the Nasdaq was nearly 10% below its highs set back at the beginning of the YEAR!! That my friends has Bernie very, very concerned. It is proof that the price action has started to drop and people are getting more optimistic - NOT A GOOD SIGN. So the major takeaway from this blurp is that Bernie thinks that right now we are at a very important brink for the market. Don't be a afraid to simply step aside and move to cash - as you don't always have to be trading. Sometimes a step back is just what the doctor ordered. I'll be back next week with another stock pick using the filters on this page and we'll see if we can make a little money, but in the meantime, don't be afraid to use all of the filters on this page and discover what works the best for you. To learn more aboutof Schaeffer’s Options Trading Filters, click here. Dr. Edward Olmstead explains that early March has a recent history of providing bearish reversals and this one caught most by surprise. Discover how the S&P fared this past month and learn about a couple of recent option trades. More... Ken Trester explains that after what has happened in the market during the past three days, a reflex bounce could come early next week. Read about the market’s new fear and discover why now is the time to buy puts. More... Discover all the tools and commentary available from the Zacks.com Options Center at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=614. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That`s why we created the free special report; Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions. Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1346. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=1353. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Stephen Reitmeister p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. *The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 06/19/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| SONIC FOUNDR | SOFO | 3.73% |
| OLD SECOND B | OSBC | 3.67% |
| SUMITOMO MIT | SMFG | 3.50% |
| VANTIV INC | VNTV | 3.17% |
| NIPPON TELEG | NTT | 2.95% |
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