Wednesday - March 8, 2006
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Go to: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2319. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH From a short-term viewpoint or a long-term one, how is the S&P 500 looking through the first ten weeks of 2006 and beyond? For his inimitable insights on this subject, we turned to Zacks’ Director of Equity Research, Dirk van Dijk, CFA. The S&P 500 seems poised to rebound from last week's losses. Do you concur? Tracking how the S&P 500 will do on a day to day or week to week basis is a bit of a fool's errand. Day to day, the market reacts to the news coming out and there is a big degree of randomness in it. Over longer periods however, one can look at the underlying valuations and fundamentals, as well as historical patterns, and have a much better chance of success. I am currently sticking with my year-end forecast of the S&P 500 reaching about 1400, or a low-double-digit return for the year. P/E multiples have been compressing for several years now as earnings have grown faster than stock prices. Part of the reason for this was the extremely high P/Es we started at, and in the last two years rising short-term rates have played a role in the multiple compression. We have one more rate increase for (almost) sure at the end of this month, and it is looking more and more like one more after that in May. However, we are still much closer to the end of the Fed tightening cycle than the beginning. Relative to the yield on the 10-year treasury, earnings yields (i.e. the inverse of the P/E ratio) on the S&P 500 are attractive. Earnings on the S&P 500 should grow at 10-12% this year, so without more multiple contraction, stock returns should do about the same. To cut things a little finer, historically the really good returns in the market come between November and May, with June through October not so hot. Thus if history holds, we have two or three more good months (so far the market has done pretty well this year), then we take a long break, followed by a nice year-end rally. I would not be surprised to see that pattern hold again this year. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Looking around, it seems apt to paraphrase Winston Churchill: 'Stocks are the worst investments, except for all the rest.’ In large part, I like stocks because bonds and real estate look like such poor investment choices right now. Real Estate looks to be overpriced, although commercial real estate is probably not as bad as residential real estate on the coasts, and I think the trend in long-term rates is up, which by definition means bonds are a bad place to be. In your opinion, does a big merger like the AT&T/BellSouth deal foster positivity in the broader market? The deal, since it is an all-stock deal, should really have no overall effect on the market, although AT&T (T) did also say that it would increase its share repurchase program at the same time, so net-net a small positive. Cash deals are more significant for the market than stock deals. Cash deals inject new money into the market and take stock out of the market; stock deals just change the flavor of the paper out there. That said, it is a positive for the Investment Bankers, who will reap some pretty sweet fees out of this. We noticed Chesapeake Energy has recently replaced Dana Corp. in the index. Are Energy stocks still the main growth driver for the S&P? I remain a very big bull on the Energy sector. For starters, it is the cheapest sector in the market, the sector as a whole is trading for 10.0x 2006 earnings while the S&P 500 is trading for 15.2x, and Energy will again be the highest earnings growth sector in the market this year. Estimates are being revised up for both this year and next. While historically the Energy industry has been cyclical, its cycles are much longer than those of most cyclical industries. There are very long lead times to bring on new capacity on the supply side of the equation. If a major offshore field is found today, it will be 2009 before its product finds its way into your gas tank. On the demand side, things are also very slow to adjust. The light vehicle fleet -- cars and light trucks like SUVs and pickups -- takes over 15 years to turn over in this country. So that Hummer that was bought last year under the "employee pricing" special the Auto firms held last year will still be chugging gasoline in 2020. The people who just built their dream McMansion 50 miles from the office will still be commuting, and still be doing so by car for a long time. India and China are still growing, and both countries now have a political imperative to keep the growth growing to lift their people out of abject poverty. The world is still a very dangerous place, and the places we get the oil from tend to be the most dangerous of all. Thus, while in the very short-term energy inventories look pretty good -- largely owning to a very warm winter -- over the intermediate-term supplies should remain tight. Long-term, the crystal ball gets cloudy. On the one hand, the cyclical forces of high prices bringing on new supply (after those really long lead times) and at the same time inducing consumers to conserve have in the past brought about energy crashes. While the oil industry is increasing its spending to find more oil, many of the biggest companies are simply returning their huge cash flows to their shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Therefore, the increased supply from higher prices may well be less than it has been in the past. In addition, there is a very real possibility that we are getting close to what is known as "peak oil," or the point at which the world has pumped out more than half of the original reserves and cannot, at any price, increase production without destroying the ultimate ability to extract all the oil in the ground by damaging the reservoir. There will still be oil on the market, but in slowly declining amounts -- something that will not jibe with increasing global demand. This situation would lead to, in the best case, oil prices that are far above what anybody today is really contemplating. In the worst case, it will lead to wars and massive social unrest throughout the world. Peak oil is inevitable, but the timing is unknown, with very serious people saying it is now, out to the "official line" of sometime around 2030. The official line requires an extraordinary amount faith that the Saudis are telling the truth about the size of their reserves (suggested reading: "Twilight in the Desert" by Matt Simmonds). My best guess is that it occurs sometime between 2010 and 2015. What do you consider to be the main risk factors for investors these days? Global tensions? Long-term interest rates? There are many bricks in the wall of worry that the market is likely to climb this year. Those two are clearly among them. Others would include uncertainty about the outcome of the mid-term elections (the market hates uncertainty), potential civil war in Iraq, Bird Flu, the Iranian bomb, the trade deficit, the budget deficit, the potential for the dollar to fall rapidly, the Fed tightening too far, housing prices collapsing, more hurricanes, consumer confidence falling, inflation picking up, further increases in energy prices, the low savings rate, high levels of consumer debt and most likely something that is not on the radar screens right now, like a big earthquake in California or something like that which we know is coming but just don't know when. Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Director of Research for Zacks Equity Research. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Analyst Blog - NEW! Get real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts. To see their latest posts, click here. Freddie Mac (FRE) - Strong Year-Over-Year Profits. For full Zacks research report, click here. King Pharmaceuticals (KG) - Increased Generic Competition. For full Zacks research report, click here. Zacks Industry Rank for the Week of Mar 6 Earnings Season Just about Over
2. SCREEN OF THE WEEK Zacks.com offers three unique weekly commentaries that all
further our mission to help you Profit from the Pros. Today is
the latest installment of Screen of the Week from Kevin Matras.
Each week, Kevin shares with you another winning screen he has
discovered using the Research Wizard software from Zacks
Investment Research. Learn more about the Research Wizard at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335. “Screening for Stocks to Pick the Right Options” This week, I want to talk about options. A good stock screener is the best tool you have for picking the right options. Regardless of whether you’re buying options or writing them, calls or puts, ‘nakeds’ or ‘covereds’, you not only have to be right on the stock’s direction, but also the timing. Even the most sophisticated of options strategies requires you to have an idea as to what the stock will or won’t do within a certain period of time. Many times, people who play it safe and buy options with more time are forced further out-of-the-money because of the cost, which ultimately reduces their chances of profitability. But by backtesting a stock-picking strategy to see if your stocks typically go up as soon as they're identified, you can buy less time and closer-to-the-money options. Simply put, you can make better decisions as to which options to get into. For example, let’s assume we’re buying calls. If you know your stock-picking strategy has a high probability of picking stocks that rise within the first few weeks they come across your screen, you won't have to waste your money on purchasing options with excessive time. (As you know, ‘time’ does indeed cost money when it comes to options, i.e. time value or extrinsic value.) And the less ‘needless’ time you buy, the more money you’ll have to spend on buying an option that’s closer to the money or even in-the-money (my favorite). I won’t get into an options lesson in this article, but too many people treat option buying as a lottery ticket. They’ll buy the cheapest options (usually meaning several strikes out-of-the-money) and hope for an explosive move (which they’ll need if they’re too far out-of-the-money). Unfortunately, these moves often never come. And even when they do, often times by expiration, their time value has eroded with no intrinsic value at all. Let’s say stock XYZ is trading at $50. And the options are expiring in five weeks. There’s a $45 in-the-money call at $5.60 (which means it costs $560). A $50 at-the-money call going for $2.20 ($220). A $55 out-of-the money call going for $1.50 ($150) and a $60 call going for $.75 cents ($75). The 45 call has $500 of intrinsic value (the difference between the underlying stock’s price and the strike price) and $60 of time value or extrinsic value (amount of the option’s price that’s greater than the intrinsic value). The 50 call has $0 (zero) intrinsic value and is fully comprised of extrinsic value ($220 worth). The 55 and 60 calls also have zero intrinsic value and only time value ($150 and $75 respectively). The interesting dynamic is that time value or extrinsic value declines as the expiration date draws near. In other words, as time goes by your option is losing its time value. To complete this example, let me go over a few scenarios. Let’s say at expiration, XYZ stock closes at $50. The 45 call is worth $500 for a loss of $60 or 11%. Why? Because at expiration, there’s $500 of intrinsic value left. But the $60 worth of time value has ticked away, for a loss of $60. So out of your $560 investment, you get $500 of it back. The 50 call is worth $0 for a loss of $220 or 100%. That $220 was all time value and it has all been used up. The 55 and 60 calls will also expire worthless, each one for a 100% loss. Same story. It’s true that if you spent less on an option, your absolute risk is less since you can only lose what you put up. But the ‘worse’ option you buy, the less likely that the stock will reach and surpass your strike price at expiration. (Less potential monetary loss per option, but less likelihood of making anything either.) Let’s say XYZ makes only a mediocre move of $2 to close at $52. At expiration, the 45 call would be worth $700, which means it would have a gain of $140 or 25%. So you get your $560 back, plus an extra $140. The 50 call, in spite of XYZ’s $2 move, would have actually lost money. The 50 call would now be worth only $200. But remember, you paid $220 for it. The move gave you $200 of new intrinsic value, but all of the time value you purchased ($220 worth) would have ticked away. The net result would have been a loss of $20 for a 9% decrease. So out of your $220 investment, you’ll get back $200 of it. The 55 and 60 calls both expire worthless for a 100% loss on each. This time let’s say XYZ goes to $55. The 45 call is now worth $1,000 at expiration. That’s a $440 gain or a 79% increase. ($1,000 - $560 investment = $440 gain.) So you get your $560 back, plus an extra $440. Good trade. The 50 call will be worth $500. That’s a $280 gain or a 127% increase. Excellent. You get your $220 back, plus an extra $280. But on a $5 stock move, your option captured only about half of that. The 55 and 60 calls, in spite of XYZ’s $5 run-up, both expire worthless. Yes, even the 55 call. It has no intrinsic value and no time value left –- so it’s worth nothing. This time, let’s say XYZ shoots up $10 to close at $60 by expiration. The 45 call will be worth $1,500. ($1,500 - $560 investment = $940 gain or a 168% increase.) You get your $560 back, plus an additional $940. Awesome. The 50 call also fared well. It’s now worth $1,000. ($1,000 - $220 investment = $780 gain or a 355% increase). You get your $220 back, plus an additional $780. The 55 call is finally profitable as it’s now worth $500. So your gain is $350. ($500 - $150 investment = $350.) That’s a 233% increase. But a bit disappointing, considering you got only about $3.50 worth of a $10 move. The real disappointment though is for the 60 call. Once again, it’ll expire worthless as all of it’s time value has ticked away leaving its value at zero. Of course, the out-of-the money call strategy will score big if there’s a huge move and you have lots of options. But short of that, the ‘cheap’, out-of-the money calls will often expire with a 100% loss. Ouch. And how much money are you really willing to commit to an out-of-the money play, knowing the odds are so stacked against you. Unfortunately, that’s how many people do it. And because they rationalize that they can get more options for the price of one really good one, they’ll often spend just as much and lose it ALL. And if you buy more time until expiration, the options will cost even more and potentially be a bigger loss. In fact, every one of the above scenarios would have done commensurately worse. So, once you have an idea how good your screening strategy is at picking winners and how quickly they move once they’ve been identified, you can then go about picking the best option to give you the highest probability of success. For instance, what if you knew your screening strategy picked stocks that had a high probability of going up within the next few weeks. You wouldn't need to buy two months or three months or six months of time. And you could then spend your money on getting a closer out-of-the money or better yet, an at-the-money or an in-the-money option. I personally like to look at options as simply a cheaper way to invest in stocks. Because if I bought 100 shares of a $90 stock, that’d cost $9,000. But if I bought an $85 call option with 4-6 weeks left while the stock was at $90, I’d have the right to buy 100 shares of that stock at $90. And I’d probably only have to pay about $5.50 to $7.00 ($550 to $700) to do so. (There of course are other considerations to the pricing of options that are beyond the scope of this article, but you get the idea.) The benefits of my in-the-money preferences are; if the stock went sideways, I’d retain the majority of my investment since my option is comprised of mostly intrinsic value. If it went up a little, my option would still have a great chance of gain. If it moved up nicely (as I’d expected), I’d get the lion’s share of the move. And if it collapsed, my maximum exposure would be limited to my purchase price. (And even less if I sold prior to expiration.) So what does all this mean? Make sure you screen for good stocks!!! And make sure you know the probability for those stocks to move, say within the next week or month, etc. The only way to really know is to backtest your screening strategies. This way, even a crummy option strategy will have a better chance of profit. But with better knowledge of your stocks’ movement potential, you can employ a better option strategy for even bigger gains. Here’s an easy way to get started. In the Research Wizard, some of our best and winningest strategies come loaded with the program. Simply add the filter; ‘optionable’ (meaning these stocks have options). Add the optionable filter to these strategies and then go find the best options. Here are three optionable stocks, from some of my favorite stock screening strategies (for the week of 3/6/06):
Get the rest of the stocks from each one of these screens and start making better stock and option decisions today. And remember, the key to successful stock picking is in discovering those screens that have produced profitable results in the past. And the key to better option selections, is in knowing what to expect from your stocks (and when). And how will you know? By backtesting! Click here to find out more about our free trial to the Research Wizard stock picking and backtesting program. http://at.zacks.com/?id=2335 Discover all the Free Screening Tools on Zacks.com at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2336. Disclosure: Officers, directors and/or employees of Zacks Investment Research may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. An affiliated investment advisory firm may own or have sold short securities and/or hold long and/or short positions in options that are mentioned in this material. 3. ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS Every day on Zacks.com we highlight four Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value. Aggressive Growth – Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC) Entravision Communications Corporation (EVC) met or exceeded earnings estimates in seven out of the last eight quarters. Five different analysts raised their estimates for 2006. Over the past 30 days, estimates for 2006 increased 20% to 12 cents per share. Read the full analysis on EVC at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2498. Growth & Income – Oshkosh Truck Corporation (OSK) Oshkosh Truck Corporation (OSK) generated fiscal 2006 first-quarter earnings well above expectations, fueled by strong demand for new and rebuilt vehicles to support the war in Iraq. The company has topped the consensus earnings estimate for 16 straight quarters. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 24.0% over the next 3-5 years. OSK has increased revenues, expanded gross margins and grown profits for the past nine years. This Zacks #1 Rank stock has a ROE of 22%, compared to 12% for the industry. Read the full analysis on OSK at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2499. More...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Momentum – PAM TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (PTSI) PAM TRANSPORTATION SERVICES (PTSI), a turnaround confirmed. The company is an irregular route, common and contract motor carrier authorized to transport general commodities. Read the full analysis on PTSI at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2500. Value – PortalPlayer, Inc. (PLAY) PortalPlayer, Inc. (PLAY), a Zacks #1 Rank stock, has exceeded the consensus earnings estimate every quarter since its initial public offering in November 2004. Analysts’ estimates have been on the rise for this year and next. Earnings per share are forecasted to grow 21.0% over the next 3-5 years. The company has a return on equity of 25%. PLAY has a price-to-book multiple of 2.8 and a PEG ratio of 0.59. Read the full analysis on PLAY at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2501.
4. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentary that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Following the article you will find previews of other profitable commentaries with insights and recommendations from leading investment experts.
Last year, in the February 2005 issue of Hidden Values Alert, Charles Mizrahi shared with investors the importance of finding companies with good management. The best managers are the ones who treat shareholders as partners, who are honest and up–front, and who over time increase shareholder value. Mizrahi introduced investors to Jim Kilts, who at the time was the chairman and CEO of Gillette. He did a masterful job of turning around a great brand name that was facing hard times. Mr. Kilts had his work cut out for him when he took over Gillette. Revenues and earnings for the prior five years were flat, the stock price had lost 30% of its value and the company had missed its earnings projections for fourteen consecutive quarters. In addition, two–thirds of Gillette’s products were losing market share. Mr. Kilts had a long history of turning around troubled companies in the past, and many were wondering if he could work his magic at Gillette. He sure did get the job done. Over the next five years, Mr. Kilts turned around Gillette, which was acquired by Procter & Gamble for $57 billion. Mizrahi also told investors at that time that “a man with his talents will probably end up at another troubled consumer product company sometime next year. And when he does, I will let you know.” Well, true to Mizrahi’s word, he is letting you know. Coca–Cola officials have recently approached Mr. Kilts about joining their board. Coke directors were drawn to him because of his great track record turning around big consumer brands, as he did at Kraft Foods, Nabisco and of course Gillette. Coca–Cola is a great brand that has been stuck in the mud for the past several years, losing market share to rival Pepsi. If Mr. Kilts joins the Coke board, there is even talk that he might very well be a leading candidate for the CEO job. So far, Coke has not made a decision, and Mr. Kilts has had no comment. If Mr. Kilts does get to join the board, Coca–Cola is definitely a company Mizrahi would want to keep his eye on. Daktronics (DAKT) is a leading supplier of electronic scoreboards, computer programmable display systems, and large video displays for sport, business and government applications. They offer the most complete line of large display products of any single manufacturer, from smaller indoor displays and scoreboards to multi-million dollar outdoor video display systems. They are recognized worldwide as a technical leader with the capabilities to design, manufacture, install and service complete integrated systems that display real-time data, graphics, animation and video. Heartland Express (HTLD) is a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier based near Iowa City, Iowa. The Company provides nationwide transportation service to major shippers, using late-model tractors and a uniform fleet of 53-foot aluminum plate dry vans. Boston Communications Group Inc. (BCGI) is the leading provider of prepaid services to wireless carriers in North and South America. The company's Prepaid Wireless Services Division provides U.S and Canadian carriers with prepaid wireless services. The Systems Division markets a voice processing platform with enhanced features for providing prepaid wireless, voice messaging and fax mail services to international wireless and wireline carriers. The Systems Division also manufactures prepaid systems that are used to support the Company's C/2/C network. Metal Management, Inc. (MTLM) is primarily engaged in the collection and processing of ferrous and non-ferrous metals for resale to metals brokers, steel producers, and producers and processors of other metals. They collect industrial scrap and obsolete scrap, process it into reusable forms and supply the recycled metals to their customers, including mini-mills, integrated steel mills, foundries and metals brokers. MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is a leading worldwide provider of business intelligence software and related services. MicroStrategy's technology platform enables departments and enterprises to easily deploy web-based reporting and analysis solutions that can answer a vast array of business questions and grow with your business. These solutions provide powerful insight into business operations and help create lasting, profitable relationships with customers, partners, and suppliers. MicroStrategy also offers a comprehensive set of consulting, training and support services. Hidden Values Alert specializes in finding companies that are a fraction of their intrinsic value. It’s like buying $1 bills for 50 cents. Mr. Market is constantly mispricing stocks and that means big profits are waiting. Hidden Values Alert employs the same investment philosophy that has worked for the past 70 years and has made billions for investors. Some recent selections were up over +50% and another was so undervalued it was just bought out at for a quick 30% profit! http://at.zacks.com/?id=2641 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Nadine Wong likes Sepracor despite its schizophrenic trading pattern. Learn why and read about a competitor. More... c) A Difficult Pattern for Option Buyers Jeff Carter says go lighter than normal with your option purchases. Then he provides some option buy positions. More... OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Ranked (Strong Buys) have produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, the Zacks #5 Rank (Strong Sell) List has alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. To truly take advantage of the Zacks Rank, you need to first understand how it works. That's why we created the free special report: "Zacks Rank Guide: Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions". Download a free copy now to prosper in the years to come, by visiting: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2332. Or view the full list of Zacks #1 Ranked stocks at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2279. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
If you answered yes, then how are you staying on top of these changes for your stocks? If you are one of the 45,000 investors who wake up every morning to the Daily Portfolio Updates emails from Zacks.com, then you are all set. If not, then sign up now to get this vital information sent to you daily to help take definitive action to improve your portfolio's performance. Did we mention it's free? Get started now! We hope you enjoyed this issue of "Profit from the Pros", And we look forward to visiting with you again next week. REFER-A-FRIEND If you enjoy this e-mail newsletter, then please pass it along to a friend. Simply forward them the link below to sign up for their own free subscription. If you're reading a forwarded copy, sign up for your own, so you get this wealth of information every week. Just click here. THANKS! Regards and Happy Investing, Charles Rotblut, CFA p.s. What is the mission for Zacks Profit from the Pros? Click here to find out how we will help you become a more successful investor. The Zacks Performance Rank performance is the total return of equal weighted simulated portfolios consisting of those stocks with the indicated Zacks Rank net of fees. Results reflect the reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Simulated results do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that economic and market factors might have had on decision-making if an adviser were actually managing a client's money. The S&P 500 Index is a well-known, unmanaged index of the prices of 500 large-company common stocks, mainly blue-chip stocks, selected by Standard & Poor's. The S&P 500 Index assumes reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect advisory fees. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. To contact us by mail: Zacks Investment Research To unsubscribe from receiving "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter, click here. | |||||||||||||||
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/22/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| ALLIANCE FIB | AFOP | 9.31% |
| SONIC FOUNDR | SOFO | 7.77% |
| TRI TECH HOL | TRIT | 6.62% |
| A M R CP | AAMRQ | 4.52% |
| FLOWERS FOOD | FLO | 4.31% |
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