Thursday - July 13, 2006
![]() Want to view the archive of past issues? Go to: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2337. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH With newer technologies available and some government pressure for healthcare companies to get on board, healthcare information technology may be one of the better growth stories emerging somewhat under the radar going forward. Senior analyst Gregory Aurand, CFA was available to give us an update on this group. A few months ago, we discussed how things were going with healthcare information technology companies. How are things progressing with this group? Generally speaking, healthcare information technology companies’ main goals are to help enhance efficiencies and increase productivity – at least in theory – for healthcare companies. Ultimately, these serve to reduce costs, which is obviously the big issue here. And demand goes up as people want programs that are faster and more accurate. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Healthcare plans, which has been TriZetto’s (TZIX) bread and butter historically, are demanding more efficiencies and greater production out of the software they use. As plans get bigger – and TriZetto generally operates in the medium or even small-size market – they’re demanding greater efficiencies to reduce costs. As you know, healthcare companies often get chewed up and down for their high premium rates. So the idea is to manage healthcare costs adequately and still make a profit. Adjust the cost structure somewhat; there’s been a big downward push on that. The other prong in healthcare information technology relates to what’s going on with Allscripts (MDRX), which is to create software that helps reduce medical errors and improve outcomes. This is generally what these healthcare tech companies all do, whether they focus primarily on the front-end, back-end or are somewhere in between, like with physicians. Is TriZetto more of a back-end company and Allscripts more front-end? Allscripts mostly functions with physicians and large practices usually affiliated with hospitals. What it comes down to much of the time is that physicians often can’t write worth a darn. There is a history of medical errors concerning a nurse not being able to read the prescription the doctor wrote down. So the idea with Allscripts is to be able to have direct input – with a BlackBerry, Palm Pilot or some other handheld device – so the doctor can enter all information digitally, which is how all medical records are now stored. That way, it eliminates those types of handwriting errors. The company operates in the physician practice management market, primarily. This has been given a big push from a government perspective recently, and hospitals have been trying to get this sort of thing going for years. Medical errors can cost a lot of money, not only due to the fact that it takes longer to recover, but also when you consider the big liability issues – writing the wrong prescription, or what have you. Obviously, implementing IT has many up-front costs – putting the systems in, getting people to run them – but once up, theoretically this type of software will save lots of money. Is there data out yet on error-rate reduction due to these technologies? Right now, it’s still too small to calculate; there’s no emphatic data yet. For the most part, hospitals have only in the last couple years started to implement and use this technology, and the data hasn’t yet caught up. However, trends suggest that things are moving in the right direction.Read the complete Analyst Interview by clicking: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2693. Gregory Aurand, CFA is a senior analyst covering the medical devices, diagnostics and healthcare information industries for Zacks Equity Research. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Rating Upgrades - NEW! Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks Equity Research: click here. Read the reports on all of the stocks on the Zacks Equity Research Buy List: click here. Get real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts. See their latest posts, click here. Verisign, Inc. (VRSN) - Attractive Valuation. For full Zacks research report, click here. King Pharmaceuticals (KG) - Competition from Generics. For full Zacks research report, click here. North Korean Missiles Miss Earnings The Week of July 10
2. ZACKS CHALLENGE: TOP PLAYER INTERVIEW Zacks.com features a free investment simulator where our customers can prove their stock picking skills to the rest of the world. In these articles we will share with you the insights and recommendations from Top Simulator Players. Learn more about the current Zacks Challenge at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2514. Buylowsellhigh Vinson Zacks congratulates Vinson Houston (aka: Buylowsellhigh Vinson) for claiming first prize in the Second Quarter Zacks Stock Challenge contest. During the quarter, this savvy trader turned $100,000 into over $600,000, equivalent to a return of more than 500%! For his impressive performance, Vinson can look forward to a lifetime subscriptions of Zacks Advisor and Research Wizard. We initially tracked Vinson down back in April, when he was already on the leader board with an overall return of approximately 20%. This was just after a few weeks into the Second Quarter Challenge. While several contestants started to drop in ranking as the competition continued, Vinson’s trades kept him towards the top throughout the quarter. Some of his winning trades included positions in Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR), Revlon, Inc. (REV), Sonovac Biotech Ltd. (SVA), O2Diesel (OTD) and Crystallex International Corporation (KRY). Click here to check out this player’s current portfolio: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2515. Like many other successful players, Vinson realized that this short-term tournament would not favor a buy and hold strategy. Consequently, this Simulator contender didn’t spend any time looking for an “outperformer.” Instead, the shrewd investor immediately engaged a trading strategy, which was momentum. Simply stating that one is a momentum investor does not necessarily provide insight on how he or she determines when to buy or sell. Because Zacks strives to educate those who are interested in trading securities and because we believe the Simulator can provide a safe method for trying new strategies, we asked Vinson to elaborate on how he was so successful. This market enthusiast likes low priced stocks, looks for extreme oversold or overbought conditions and is a fan of shorting if the opportunity presents itself. “I look for stocks with a low float that has spiked up and will try and ride the momentum as others try to short the low float. Conversely, I do the same with stocks that are oversold and look for a good entry point to gain a quick 10% to 15%. In addition to looking for extreme plays, I look for stocks trading between $1 and $1.50. These stocks are excellent for intraday trading and making a few thousand dollars during the course of the day,” explained Vinson What about the real world? These methods were obviously very successful for Vinson’s Simulator portfolio and, interestingly enough, he didn’t stray to far from his real-life strategy. The brazen investor explained that he did play the Stock Challenge a tad more risky since $100,000 was “simply handed to him.” However, he was quick to point out that momentum is his guiding light with real money as well. While this market watcher avoids investing with emotion at all costs and is much more concerned with strategy rather than specific companies, he did admit to being a fan of a couple of stocks for both his real-life and simulator portfolios. Vinson likes XSUNX Inc. (XSNX) and Nord Oil International Inc. (NDOL) for their low prices and potential. The astute investor commented that he was a frequent user of the screening tools available on Zacks.com, and he found them to be very helpful. Vinson would often click on the “Screening” tab and use the custom screener when making buy and sell decisions. Vinson suggested coming up with a strategy, implementing it and most importantly trade as much as possible. Reiterating that the Simulator quarterly challenges are not conducive to buying and holding, the Second Quarter Stock Challenge winner noted that one should not be afraid of excessive trading especially considering the low commissions and short duration of the game. It’s free. Its fun. It's the place to show your investing prowess. The best stock pickers will be rewarded with thousands of dollars in prizes. Learn more at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2671. Trade Options? Then sign up for the Zacks Options Challenge at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2672. 3. PROFIT TRACKS Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight... Profit Tracks: Upgrades and Revisions This strategy focuses primarily on Positive EPS Estimate Revisions and Brokerage Rating Upgrades. Over the last 20 years Zacks Investment Research has proven that "earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force driving stock prices." Studies have also shown that stocks receiving upward EPS revisions tend to receive additional upward revisions in the future. Then consider that stocks receiving these upward revisions generally have brokers upgrading their Ratings, which is also a proven mover of stock prices. There are other parameters to this strategy, but the Rating Upgrades and positive EPS Revisions are the two powerful active ingredients. This screen focuses on EPS Revisions, along with Broker Ratings and Rating Changes. According to Zacks Investment Research "earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices". Couple that with the proven benefits of upgrades in ratings from brokerage firms and you have a strategy that delivered a +27% return in 2005. Here are four stocks that make the grade for the Upgrades and Revisions Profit Track: Chubb Corp. (CB) will announce financial results for the second quarter on July 25, 2006. In its first-quarter report, which was released in late April, the company noted that operating income per share increased 28% to a record $1.42 from $1.11. The result was ahead of analysts’ expectations by approximately 29%. Chubb Corp. delivered earnings per share growth of 57% over the past five years. Continue your research on CB at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2354. Century Aluminum Co. (CENX) experienced earnings growth of 58% during the past five years. The company released first-quarter results in early May, noting that revenues of $347 million and operating income of $64 million were at record levels. CENX added that strong incremental profit was realized on the higher level of revenue. Last year' first-quarter sales totaled $285 million. Results for the second quarter will be available on July 27, 2006. Continue your research on CENX at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2355. More...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Global Industries, Ltd. (GLBL) posted first-quarter earnings of 16 cents per share in early May. The result more than doubled last year’s seven cents and exceeded the consensus estimate by about 45%. The company stated that the improvement in gross profit was primarily due to an increase in its overall level of construction activity due to sustained high energy prices and the effects of two major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, which occurred in the latter part of 2005. GLBL has seen earnings per share growth of 63% during the past five years. Continue your research on GLBL at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2356. Genlyte Group Inc. (GLYT) satisfies the criteria for this Profit Track as evidenced by its earnings per share growth of 20% over the past five years. The company reported first-quarter results in early May, commenting that the combination of adding new products and maintaining previously announced price increases helped achieve higher sales and gross profit margins for the first quarter. Continue your research on GLYT at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2357. To see the full list of stocks that currently pass this winning screen, go to: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2358. All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the performance, then you should start a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research Wizard free trial offer and our new special report “Top 10 Stock Screening Strategies” at: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2359. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Increasing P/Es for Stocks on the Move Kevin Matras looks at increasing P/E Ratios for spotting potential price and earnings trends: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2360. 4. ZacksAdvisor.com TIMELY BUY of the WEEK Here you'll discover a Zacks #1 Rank stock hand selected by Ben Zacks to outperform the market over the next 30 to 90 days. This week's Timely Buy is...
NDS Group Plc (NNDS) supplies smart cards and set-top box software that enable broadcast or broadband platform operators and content providers to deliver content securely to subscribers for digital satellite, pay-television, and Internet services. The company’s products help broadcasters manage customer access to various programs. Subscribers can record and view their chosen programs on a pay-per-view basis. The company has offices in Australia, Spain, Germany, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the U.S. NDS Group is conducting research and development activities in India, China, and Israel, which helps to keep its costs low. NNDS enjoys a dominant position in the conditional access market, which is an essential component of the pay-tv platform. The company's products, sold under the name "VideoGuard", are compatible with all internationally accepted digital television transmission standards, and are integrated in the set-top box. It is important to note that NDS works closely with almost all the major set-top box manufacturers around the world, so that cable and satellite providers can look for the lowest-cost provider of the set top box, and NDS can assure security. The company is consistently creating new technologies, that offer its clients the ability to increase their revenue per subscriber by developing new DVR (Digital Video Recorder) technologies, games and gaming technologies, interactive applications, OpenBet, a technology used to bet on sporting events in the UK, and Synamedia, a new technology to manage and control secure distribution of digital content via broadband networks. Revenues from this category are derived through development fees, license fees and royalties, and are earned differently for each product. NNDS has exceeded analyst estimates for nine consecutive quarters, each by at least 21%. Two analysts have increased their estimates for both this year and next. Over the past 60 days, this year's estimates have increased 9.7% to $1.81 per share. The stock is trading at 22x next year's estimates of $2.18 per share.
5. FEATURED EXPERTS Here we cast the spotlight on a timely Featured Expert commentaries that recently appeared on Zacks.com. Donald Rowe says investors should keep an eye on gold and commodities. Don’t miss his market update. http://at.zacks.com/?id=2328. David Fried’s Buyback Premium Portfolio is up more than 150% since its inception on Aug 2, 2000. Don’t miss your chance to participate. http://at.zacks.com/?id=1828. While Richard Rhodes doesn’t normally comment on consumer credit, recent numbers prompted a discussion. Benefit from his analysis. http://at.zacks.com/?id=2330. OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses.
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