Thursday - February 22, 2007
 Want to view the archive of past issues? Click here. Manage Profit from the Pros subscription: 1. ZACKS RANK BUY STOCKS Zacks #1 Ranked stocks average a 31.8% annual return. Every day on Zacks.com we highlight four new Zacks Rank Buy stocks. Each individual stock is chosen based on how well they match the criteria for the four main schools of investing: Aggressive Growth, Momentum, Growth & Income and Value.
Aggressive Growth – Perini Corporation (PCR) Perini Corporation (PCR) has met or exceeded estimates in 11 out of the past 12 quarters. Three analysts have raised their forecasts for this year. Earnings estimates have turned upward over the past week for both this year and next year. Next year's estimates jumped 15 cents to $2.75 per share over the past week. The stock is attractively priced at 14x next year's estimates. Read the full analysis on PCR now! ACE limited (ACE) exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations in 14 out of the past 16 quarters, including an 11% surprise in its most recent quarter. Analysts have been upping their profit forecasts for both this year and next. ACE has a current dividend yield of 1.7% and a five-year average dividend yield of 1.9%. Its return on equity tops that of the industry average—19% compared to 16%. Read the full analysis on ACE now! Momentum – Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) is nothing if not predictable. On Feb 15, PSYS delivered its twelfth straight positive earnings surprise. The company reported EPS of 33 cents, up 27% from the same quarter last year and a 10% positive earnings surprise. Sales grew 15.86% to $280.96 million and income rose 48% to $18.04 million. Read the full analysis on PSYS now! Superior Well Services, Inc. (SWSI) topped analysts’ earnings expectations for six straight quarters by an average margin of 15.5%. The Zacks #1 Rank company recently announced solid fourth-quarter and full-year 2006 results. Consensus estimates for this year and next have risen over the past two months. Read the full analysis on SWSI now!
2. Best of the Zacks $100,000 Challenge Zacks is conducting a nationwide talent search to find the very best stock pickers. The winner gets a $100,000 dream job with Zacks! . Sign up for free to join the competition, or just read what stocks the leading players are trading on the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs. Best of the Zacks Challenge Player Blogs Here's what the leading players are saying this week: Java J (Ranked #1 with $427,121) HOKU SCIENTIFIC INC (HOKU) Read More or Comment on this post. Shoelessjoe (Ranked #2 with $291,360) DON'T BE AFRAID OF SUCCESS- TAKE YOUR PROFITS It looks like the market could continue upward for some time, but I like banking profits when I have them, cutting potential losers quickly and selling stocks that have lost momentum. Read More or Comment on this post. Beris (Ranked #44 with $121,970) BUY HIGH- SELL HIGHER (NAK) Consider the Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK). Is it too late to invest in it or trade it now? Not if you start thinking "sell higher no matter where your entry point is." Read More or Comment on this post. Read all the Player Blog posts.
Top Zacks Challenge Player Interview: zoroleheros David Charrette (aka: zoroleheros) attributes his Simulator success to being flexible and studying charts. He said, "I'm a trader who tries to adapt to whichever market we have. I can do a few intraday trades as well as some longer term ones, but I base all my trades on charts and technical analysis. Even if I have a some knowledge in finance, I rarely look at the numbers. The charts tell me what the institutional investors think and that is all I need to know." Such methodology and his big gainer Fronteer Development Group Inc. (FRG), which has so far delivered a return of nearly 70%, helped propel David's Zacks $100K Challenge portfolio into the top 20. Other holdings in this player's Simulator portfolio include: ENERGY METALS CORP. (EMU), Uranerz Energy Corp. (URZ) and ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE (SRS). Click here to check out this participant's complete portfolio. Click here to check out this participant’s complete portfolio. What's his plan of attack? This chartist explained that he looks for two main ingredients. David monitors stocks with a strong uptrend, waiting to buy on a pullback. He also screens for oversold names that may have been massively dumped or shorted because of a deceptive news. Click here to read the whole interview with zoroleheros. Click here for more on the Zacks $100,000 Challenge. 3. ZACKS EQUITY RESEARCH Yesterday, the National Health Statistics Group at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services predicted that spending on health care would double by 2016 to $4.1 trillion. If this projection holds true, health care spending will account for 20% of U.S. GDP. Although the long-term outlook presents a massive problem, over the short-term opportunities do exist for investors. Within the past two weeks, there have been bullish earnings reports from three companies within Medical-Health Maintenance Organizations: AmeriGroup (AGP), Health Net (HNT) and Wellcare Health (WCG). If I were to use a liberal definition of “two weeks”, Humana (HUM), which reported on Feb 5, would be a fourth company. All four companies credited higher enrollments for helping to boost revenues and earnings. Medicare, particularly Part D, played an important roll for yet another quarter. Commercial enrollment was also higher, particularly for HNT, which generated growth by targeting small- and mid-sized businesses. Medical expense ratios (a measure of how much insurers are spending on claims) were mixed. Notably, general and administrative expenses were also mixed, an implication that the increase in enrollments has not resulted in a universal realization of economies of scale. Nonetheless, all four companies either raised their guidance or provided an optimistic forecast for 2007. The projections reflect an expectation that enrollments will continue to rise this calendar year. More. . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - AmeriGroup earned 40 cents in its fourth quarter, besting expectations by five cents. (This was the smallest surprise in more than four quarters.) Membership increased 16.6% year-over-year and contributed to an approximate 30% rise in revenues. The medical expense ratio was 82.1%. AGP anticipates that it can achieve organic revenue growth in the range of 25% to 30% next year. Based on this projection, the company raised its 2007 guidance by a nickel to a range of $1.85 to $2.00 per share. Five of the 12 covering brokerage analysts revised their forecasts in response, causing the consensus estimate to rise to $1.91 per share. AGP is a Zacks #2 Rank (“buy”) stock. Health Net generated adjusted fourth-quarter profits of 91 cents per share, a penny above expectations. Revenues rose 8.7% as enrollment grew in both the company’s commercial and Medicare segments. Medical expenses improved to 81.7% of premiums from 82.9% a year prior. HNT anticipates earning $3.65 per share this year, based in part on further growth in the small- and mid-sized business segment. Eight of the 13 covering brokerage analysts raised their projections in response to the guidance; the new consensus estimate is $3.65, up three cents from the month-old forecast. HNT is a Zacks #2 Rank stock. WellCare Health Plans topped estimates by five cents with fourth-quarter earnings of $1.38 per share. Revenues and membership more than doubled thank to the addition of Medicare Part D products and the launch of a Georgia Medicaid health plan. The medical expense ratio improved to 78.4% from 80.2%. Following the strong fourth-quarter performance, WCG raised its 2007 profit guidance to between $4.10 to $4.20 per share, from $3.95 to $4.05 per share. Nearly all of the covering brokerage analysts revised their forecasts in response, causing the consensus estimate to rise by 13 cents to $4.11 per share. WCG is a Zacks #1 Rank (“strong buy”) stock. Humana earned 92 cents per share last quarter, a slight decrease from the third quarter, but above analysts’ expectations and the company’s guidance. Medicare enrollment nearly doubled and commercial enrollment increased by approximately 4%. The medical expense ratio rose by 110 basis points to 83.2% primarily because of Medicare Part D. HUM believes it can continue achieving strong growth in 2007 and raised its guidance as a result. The company now anticipates earning $4.00 to $4.20 per share this year, a 10-cent increase over the previous forecast. Nearly all of the covering brokerage analysts revised their projections resulting in a 12-cent increase in the consensus estimate to $4.08 per share. HUM is a Zacks #1 Rank stock. To read the complete Industry Rank Analysis, click here. Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks Equity Research. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Analyst Blog Real-time market insights from Zacks Equity Research Analysts. Stocks featured recently include Monarch Casino & Resort (MCRI), W-H Energy Services (WHQ), Gilead Sciences (GILD) and CONMED Corporation (CNMD). To see their latest posts, click here. Maxim Integrated (MXIM) - Good Entry Point. For full Zacks research report, click here. BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) - Further Weakness Expected. For full Zacks research report, click here. Frugal Enterprise IT May Benefit Long Term Another Double-Digit Quarter Find out which stocks have been recently upgraded by Zacks Equity Research: click here. Read the reports on all of the stocks on the
Zacks Equity Research Buy List: click here.
4. PROFIT TRACKS Zacks.com is proud to share with you some of the best trading
strategies that truly allow you to Profit from the Pros. Today
we highlight... Profit Track: Upgrades and Revisions This strategy focuses primarily on Positive EPS Estimate Revisions and Brokerage Rating Upgrades. Over the last 20 years Zacks Investment Research has proven that earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force driving stock prices. Studies have also shown that stocks receiving upward EPS revisions tend to receive additional upward revisions in the future. Then consider that stocks receiving these upward revisions generally have brokers upgrading their Ratings, which is also a proven mover of stock prices. There are other parameters to this strategy, but the Rating Upgrades and positive EPS Revisions are the two powerful active ingredients. Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) recently reported fourth-quarter earnings of $2.88 per share. The result eclipsed the consensus estimate by 19% and outperformed the year-ago earnings. ACGL’s earnings per share have come in above Wall Street expectations each time over the past five consecutive quarters. Arch Capital Group produced earnings per share growth of 50% over the past five years. Continue your research on ACGL now! General Cable Corp. (BGC), Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company, recently posted fourth-quarter earnings of 68 cents per share. The result surpassed analysts’ expectations by 14% and soared past the previous year’s total. Revenues climbed to $925.3 million from last year’s $617.5 million. The company boasts earnings per share growth of 78% over the past five years. Continue your research on BGC now! Horace Mann Educators Corp. (HMN), another Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) name, has put together a five-year growth track record of 23%. The company recently announced fourth-quarter earnings that were ahead of the year-prior quarter and beat the consensus estimate by 12%. The company noted that it produced solid earnings for the fourth quarter and full year, and its growth initiatives continued to gain traction. Continue your research on HMN now! Team, Inc. (TISI) is also a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) company. TISI experienced earnings growth of 22% over the past five years. In early January, the company released fiscal second-quarter earnings of 58 cents per share, exceeding the previous year’s 41 cents and outpacing the consensus estimate by 23%. TISI cited continued broad based organic growth across nearly all its geographic regions and noted that its outlook for the rest of the year remains strong. Continue your research on TISI now! To see the full list of stocks that currently pass this winning screen, click here. All the Profit Track strategies were created and backtested using the Research Wizard software from Zacks Investment Research. If you like this screening strategy, but want to narrow down the list of stocks and even improve the performance, then you should start a free trial to this powerful stock picking tool. Learn more about the Research Wizard free trial offer and our new special report “Top 10 Stock Screening Strategies”. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Kevin Matras goes over a new screening strategy: Click here. 5. ZacksElite.com TIMELY BUY of the WEEK Here you'll discover a Zacks #1 Rank stock hand selected by Ben Zacks to outperform the market over the next 30 to 90 days. This week's Timely Buy is...
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD), a biotechnology company based in Foster City, CA, is primarily focused on developing drugs for the treatment of HIV/AIDS. Gilead also focuses on therapies for hepatitis B and diseases such as flu and fungal infections. Viread and Emtriva (for the treatment of HIV infections) along with AmBiosome (for the treatment of fungal infection) are the major contributors to the company’s product sales. Much of the recent top-line strength has been driven by a combination of two drugs, Viread and Emtriva, both of which fall into a class of antiviral compounds known as nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). NRTIs are part of what is commonly referred to as a drug cocktail for HIV/AIDS therapy. Other important components of the HIV/AIDS drug cocktail are non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) and protease inhibitors (PI). The company has worked to formulate these existing drugs into a single fixed-dose pill to increase convenience and lower costs for the HIV/AIDS patient. In late January, the biotech company posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2006 financial results. Non-GAAP earnings per share for the fourth quarter totaled 78 cents. The result topped last year’s 54 cents and exceeded the consensus estimate by 13%. Gilead Sciences has outperformed Wall Street earnings forecasts each time for the past five straight quarters. Total revenues for the fourth quarter of 2006 were $899.2 million, an increase of 48% over the year-prior quarter. The company delivered record revenues for the full year of $3.03 billion, up 49% versus 2005. Likewise, full-year product sales were a record $2.59 billion, which represents growth of 43% over year 2005. GILD noted that it continued to make significant progress in the fourth quarter, culminating another successful year for the company. In November the company completed the acquisition of Myogen for $2.5 billion in cash. Although dilutive in the near-term, this deal works to fill the pipeline gap beyond 2009. Analysts are bullish on GILD’s earnings expectations. Current full-year 2007 estimates of $2.86 per share moved up from last month’s level of $2.64, which included a three-cent climb from last week’s guidance of $2.83.
OTHER TOOLS FROM ZACKS At the heart of Zacks Investment Research is the Zacks Rank investment philosophy that continues to vastly outperform the market. Our Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) List has produced the following results for investors:
And just as importantly, our #5 Ranked stocks (Strong Sells) have alerted investors as to which stocks to dump from their portfolios to avoid unnecessary losses. FREE PORTFOLIO TRACKER Do you believe that these events affect stock prices?
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Zacks #1 Stocks on the Move 05/17/2013
| Company Name | Symbol | %Change |
|---|---|---|
| VIASAT INC | VSAT | 19.35% |
| OLD SECOND B | OSBC | 5.76% |
| GAMCO INVEST | GBL | 4.61% |
| CORNING INC | GLW | 4.47% |
| SYNCHRONOSS | SNCR | 4.23% |
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