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Profit from the Pros

 TODAY'S OPENING VIEW
 Provided by Schaeffer's Investment Research
Opening View: Kohl's and Nordstrom Take a Turn in the Earnings Limelight
Andrea Kramer (akramer@sir-inc.com) and Joseph Hargett (jhargett@sir-inc.com) -

U.S. stock futures are mildly higher this morning, indicative of a potentially positive start to the regular session. In overseas trading, reports of a Chinese investment in BHP Billiton lifted Asian markets, while commodity-related stocks boosted European shares. In the States, it's all about the retail sector, with earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl's, and Nordstrom, as well as some brokerage notes from Goldman Sachs.

Abercrombie & Fitch reported first-quarter net income of $62.1 million, or 69 cents per share, compared to $60.1 million, or 65 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales for the quarter rose 8% to $800.2 million, while comparable-store sales dropped 3%. Analysts expected earnings of 66 cents per share on revenue of $803.6 million. The retailer reiterated first-half profit guidance of $1.61 to $1.65 per share, noting that it plans to expand gross square footage by about 10%.

Nordstrom reported first-quarter profit of $119 million, or 54 cents per share; analysts expected profit of 50 cents per share. Revenue fell 3.8% to $1.88 billion. The retail chain warned that it predicts fiscal-year earnings of $2.65 to $2.80 per share, down from previous guidance of $2.75 to $2.90 per share.

Kohl's also stepped into the earnings confessional, reporting first-quarter net income of $153 million, or 49 cents per share, down from $209 million, or 64 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue rose 1.5% to $3.6 billion. However, same-store sales fell 6.7% in the quarter. Analysts predicted earnings of 45 cents per share on revenue of $3.62 billion. The company predicts fiscal-year earnings of $2.95 to $3.15 per share, below analysts' per-share estimates of $3.20.

Goldman Sachs this morning cut its rating of U.S. department stores to "neutral" from "attractive," downgrading J.C. Penney (JCP) and Nordstrom to "neutral" from "buy." The broker also removed Kohl's from its conviction-buy list in favor of Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). The sector downgrade comes in the wake of the brokerage upping its 2008 oil price forecast to $149 per barrel from $115 per barrel. Goldman stated that higher gasoline prices should "further crowd out consumer discretionary spend and dampen sentiment."

Checking in on the Yahoo! saga, the Internet giant late yesterday said that billionaire investor Carl Icahn "misunderstands" the Microsoft proposal. YHOO's board also deemed itself the "best and most qualified group to maximize value for all Yahoo! stockholders," adding that it will not allow Icahn and his nominees to control the board. In closing, YHOO Chairman Roy Bostock noted that the company is willing to consider a proposal from any party - as long as it properly reflects Yahoo's full value.

Economic Calendar

The economic calendar rounds out the week with the release of the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, building permits, and housing starts. Looking ahead to next week, we have a look at April's leading economic indicators on Monday, while Tuesday brings the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core PPI for April. For a complete run down of days and times for this week's economic releases, please see the chart at the bottom of page 2.

Market Statistics

Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,663,261 call contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 984,348 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio dipped to 0.59, while the 21-day moving average dropped to 0.65.

Volatility indices

NYSE and Nasdaq summary

**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures

Overseas Trading

Overseas trading is primarily in the black this morning, with 9 of the 11 foreign indices that we track in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 0.6%. In Asian trading, Shanghai-listed stocks jumped between positive and negative territory as investors continued to digest Monday's devastating earthquake. In Japan, data showed that the country's economy grew at a faster-than-expected 0.8% in the first quarter; despite the news, Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Average fell for the first time this week. Elsewhere, shares of BHP Billiton (BHP) tacked on 1.5% in Sydney after an Australian news source reported that Chinese interests are considering a 9% stake in the mining giant.

Across the pond in Europe, commodity-related firms - including BP (BP) and Total (TOT) - aided regional gains after a Goldman Sachs analyst raised his average forecast for light sweet crude for the second half of 2008. Nuclear power magnate British Energy also inched higher after announcing it had received a plethora of takeover proposals. Meanwhile, British Airways jumped nearly 6% in U.K. trading after reporting annual profit more than doubled.

Overseas markets

The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to 73.34 on Thursday from its late-Wednesday reading of 73.37, as the dollar gained against the yen and the euro, but fell versus most of its other foreign counterparts. The old greenback received a lift from strength in the U.S. equities market and a pullback in crude-oil prices. Against this backdrop, the dollar rose to 104.64 yen, while the euro dipped to $1.54.

The futures contract on the 30-year bond (US/1 -116'13) rose 29/32 on Thursday, sending yields lower, after data showed manufacturing activity in the New York region fell in May and jobless claims rose in the latest week. Digging into the data, the Empire State manufacturing index fell to negative 3.2 in May from 0.6 in April, while initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 371,000 in the past week.

Treasurys in early trading

Commodity Corner

Gold futures took their cue from early weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback endured a shaky trading session after the release of some less-than-stellar economic data, while the euro found strength from a report that the German and French economies grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter. As a result, June-dated gold marched to a gain of $13.50 to settle at $880 an ounce.

Precious metals sector

With very little news on the black-gold front yesterday, oil futures took their cue from a sharp decline in the price of natural gas. A greater-than-expected increase in natural-gas inventories pushed the commodity to a loss of 18 cents per million British thermal units. Against this backdrop, the July-dated crude contract pulled back to settle at $123.85 per barrel, a loss of 26 cents. Some analysts believe that crude was also subject to a wave of profit-taking yesterday following its record-setting run higher.

Oil sector

Unusual Put and Call Activity:

For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations.

Unusual options activity - puts

Unusual options activity - calls

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Disclaimer: The following earnings times and dates should be considered estimates only. Please check with each company's website for an official reporting schedule.

The following earnings dates and times are courtesy of Briefing.com as of 3:15 p.m. on Thursday, May 8:

Earnings Calendar

To read more of our analysis on the market's biggest stories, please visit our Schaeffer's Daily Market Blog section throughout the trading day.

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