Back to top

Analyst Blog

Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Analyst Report) is scheduled to report its second quarter 2013 earnings after the closing bell on Jul 30, 2013.

Last quarter, Amgen delivered a positive earnings surprise of 11.43%. We expect the trend to continue in the second quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Amgen is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: The Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read: Zacks ESP: A Better Way to Find Earnings Surprises), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $1.74 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.71, is +1.75%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy): Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 and 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

The combination of Amgen’ Zacks Rank #2 and an ESP of +1.75% makes us confident of an earnings beat on Jul 30.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

This biotech company has delivered positive earnings surprises in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.49%. Key growth drivers at Amgen include Enbrel, Xgeva and Prolia. Continued improvement in the performance of key products should drive results.

Moreover, the company’s move to launch new manufacturing technologies along with its efforts to develop the pipeline is also encouraging.

Other Stocks to Consider

Amgen is not the only company looking up this earnings season. We also see likely earnings beat coming from these companies:

Mylan Inc. (MYL - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +1.49% and holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Mylan will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 1 before the market opens.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +7.87% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Regeneron will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 6 before the market opens.

Medivation, Inc. (MDVN - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +27.27 and holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Medivation will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 8 after market closes.

Please login to Zacks.com or register to post a comment.

New to Zacks?

Start Here

Zacks Investment Research

Close

Are you a new Zacks Member or a visitor to Zacks.com?

Top Zacks Features

My Portfolio Tracker

Is it Time to Sell?

One of the most important steps you can take today is to set up your portfolio tracker on Zacks.com. Once you do, you'll be notified of major events affecting your stocks and/or funds with daily email alerts.

More Zacks Resources

Zacks Rank Home - Evaluate your stocks and use the Zacks Rank to eliminate the losers and keep the winners.

Mutual Fund Rank Home - Evaluate your funds with the Mutual Fund Rank for both your personal and retirement funds.

Stock/Mutual Fund Screening - Find better stocks and mutual funds. The ones most likely to beat the market and provide a positive return.

My Portfolio - Track your Portfolio and find out where your stocks/mutual funds stack up with the Zacks Rank.

Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers

Company Symbol Price %Chg
FELCOR LODG… FCH 10.47 +3.46%
OLD DOMINIO… ODFL 63.48 +1.18%
VASCO DATA… VDSI 13.57 +0.67%
AMEDISYS IN… AMED 20.18 +0.10%
LENOVO GROU… LNVGY 27.07 +0.04%