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Amgen Inc. (AMGN - Analyst Report) is scheduled to report its second quarter 2013 earnings after the closing bell on Jul 30, 2013.

Last quarter, Amgen delivered a positive earnings surprise of 11.43%. We expect the trend to continue in the second quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Amgen is likely to beat earnings because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.

Positive Zacks ESP: The Expected Surprise Prediction or ESP (Read: Zacks ESP: A Better Way to Find Earnings Surprises), which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $1.74 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.71, is +1.75%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive earnings surprise for the shares.

Zacks Rank #2 (Buy): Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1, 2 and 3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings estimates. We caution against stocks with Zacks Ranks #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

The combination of Amgen’ Zacks Rank #2 and an ESP of +1.75% makes us confident of an earnings beat on Jul 30.

What is Driving the Better-than-Expected Earnings?

This biotech company has delivered positive earnings surprises in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 11.49%. Key growth drivers at Amgen include Enbrel, Xgeva and Prolia. Continued improvement in the performance of key products should drive results.

Moreover, the company’s move to launch new manufacturing technologies along with its efforts to develop the pipeline is also encouraging.

Other Stocks to Consider

Amgen is not the only company looking up this earnings season. We also see likely earnings beat coming from these companies:

Mylan Inc. (MYL - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +1.49% and holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Mylan will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 1 before the market opens.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (REGN - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +7.87% and holds a Zacks Rank #3. Regeneron will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 6 before the market opens.

Medivation, Inc. (MDVN - Analyst Report) has Earnings ESP of +27.27 and holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Medivation will be reporting second quarter earnings on Aug 8 after market closes.

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