Back to top

Real Time Insight

Today’s July ADP figure showed a gain of 200,000 private sector jobs comfortably above the consensus outlook for an 180,000 increase.   May and June surveys were revised up a net 17,000.  The survey results compare to a June 2012 to June 2013 monthly average gain of 155,000.  The trade is looking for July BLS private payrolls to rise 187,000, and total payrolls to expand 175,000.

Most sectors show job growth:

Examining the sub sectors, construction jobs increased 22,000, transport and utility employment jumped 45,000, financial jobs rose 4,000, and business services surged 49,000.  The manufacturing sector bucked the trend and contracted 5,000.

Small business created 82,000 jobs, while large buiness generated 57,000 new jobs.

ADP has been conservative to the BLS:

Over the last year, the ADP private payroll survey has under estimated BLS private payrolls by 30,000.  The ADP number has been below the BLS number 9 of the past 12 months.  The table displays the relationship between the two series.

If one looks at the relationship between the ADP survey and BLS private payrolls, the relationship is loose with the ADP survey explaining only 53% of the variation in the BLS number.  100% would suggest a perfect predictor while 0% would argue for no relationship.

I have three questions:

1) What is your guess for Friday’s BLS private sector payroll number?

2) Will today’s ADP number and labor market conditions influence today’s FOMC results?

3) Will healthy job growth help the S&P 500 sustain a gain over 1700?

Let me know!

Just Released: 5 Stocks to Double

Today, you are invited to download a free Special Report from Zacks Investment Research. It reveals five moves that could gain +100% and more in the next 12 months:

One is a "boring" business delivering blistering growth. Another is a red-hot oil and gas producer set to surge on a drilling breakthrough. Still another, an online payment provider, ignited a 53% sales explosion during the past year.

Close This Panel X

Please login to or register to post a comment.

New to Zacks?

Start Here

Zacks Investment Research


Are you a new Zacks Member or a visitor to

Top Zacks Features

My Portfolio Tracker

Is it Time to Sell?

One of the most important steps you can take today is to set up your portfolio tracker on Once you do, you'll be notified of major events affecting your stocks and/or funds with daily email alerts.

More Zacks Resources

Zacks Rank Home - Evaluate your stocks and use the Zacks Rank to eliminate the losers and keep the winners.

Mutual Fund Rank Home - Evaluate your funds with the Mutual Fund Rank for both your personal and retirement funds.

Stock/Mutual Fund Screening - Find better stocks and mutual funds. The ones most likely to beat the market and provide a positive return.

My Portfolio - Track your Portfolio and find out where your stocks/mutual funds stack up with the Zacks Rank.

Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers for Zacks #1 Rank Top Movers

Company Symbol Price %Chg
THE PANTRY… PTRY 21.21 +3.01%
ERBA DIAGNO… ERB 2.99 +2.75%
SANCHEZ ENE… SN 33.99 +2.10%
INTEL CP INTC 35.04 +1.55%
PIPER JAFFR… PJC 54.45 +1.53%