Back to top

Analyst Blog

The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a larger-than-expected rise in natural gas supplies on account of weak demand due to cooler-than-normal temperatures. The storage climb has also pushed up natural gas stocks above the five-year average level for the first time since March.

About the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

The Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report – brought out by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday since 2002 – includes updates on natural gas market prices, the latest storage level estimates, recent weather data and other market activities or events.

The report provides an overview of the level of reserves and their movements, thereby helping investors understand the demand/supply dynamics of natural gas. It is an indicator of current gas prices and volatility that affect businesses of natural gas-weighted companies and related support plays.

Analysis of the Data

Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 96 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended Aug 2, 2013, higher than the guided range (of 74–78 Bcf gain) as per the analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Financial Inc. (MHFI - Analyst Report). The increase – the seventeenth injection of 2013 – also exceeded both last year’s build of 25 Bcf and the 5-year (2008–2012) average addition of 42 Bcf for the reported week.

Following past week’s large build, the current storage level – at 2.941 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) – has overturned the deficit over the five-year average, with the current storage being 20 Bcf (0.7%) above the benchmark. In fact, natural gas inventories in underground storage have gone over the five-year average for the first time since late March. However, supplies are still down 297 Bcf (9.2%) from the last year’s level.

Natural gas stocks hit an all-time high of 3.929 Tcf last year, as production from dense rock formations (shale) – through novel techniques of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – remained robust. In fact, the oversupply of natural gas pushed down prices to a 10-year low of $1.82 per million Btu (MMBtu) during late Apr 2012 (referring to spot prices at the Henry Hub, the benchmark supply point in Louisiana).

However, things have started to look up in recent times. This year, cold winter weather across most parts of the country boosted natural gas demand for space heating by residential/commercial consumers. This, coupled with flat production volumes, meant that the inventory overhang has now gone, thereby driving commodity prices to around $4.40 per MMBtu in Apr – the highest in 21 months.

Following this, natural gas demand went through a lean period, with the end of the winter heating season and ahead of the peak cooling loads for summer. In this timeframe, the commodity experienced a number of above-average builds, thereby pulling down prices again.

Outlook

With mild weather expected to prevail over the country during the next few weeks, leading to tepid electricity draws to run air conditioners, the commodity’s price may experience another slide.

This, in turn, is expected to pull down natural gas producers, particularly small suppliers like WPX Energy Inc. (WPX - Snapshot Report). While big players like Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK - Analyst Report) and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM - Analyst Report) – both Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stocks – are better equipped than others, we caution investors about WPX Energy, which also sports a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
 

Please login to Zacks.com or register to post a comment.