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Real Time Insight

First off this morn, fresh weekly claims data was bullish.

New unemployment benefit applications dropped by -9,000 to 323,000 in the week ended August 31.  This kept initial claims near a five-and-a-half year low. Forecasters looked for 330,000, making this a beat.

Also, the Federal government said continuing claims decreased by 43,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.95 million in the week ended August 24.  This is really good news.  If we are working our way into the backlog of the unemployed, this progress is real.

Second, a fresh monthly reading came from the private sector payroll company ADP on the jobs market.  

It too looked solid.

Total U.S. Nonfarm Private Employment increased by  +176K jobs in August, in line with other summer data.  Service producers delivered +165K of those jobs, a strong performance. Goods producers added just +11K jobs.

By company size, small businesses lead.  They added many jobs to fill their new roles.  Very large service businesses located in trade/transport/utilities (+50K) and professional/business services (+40K) performed effectively too.


  • Small businesses: +71K
  • Medium businesses: +74K
  • Large businesses: +32K

​Manufacturing, construction, and financial activities added a collective +10K jobs.  Not strong in August.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,

"It is steady as she goes in the job market. Job gains in August were consistent with increases experienced over the past two-plus years. There is little evidence that fiscal austerity and Health Care Reform have had a significant impact on the job market.”

My RTI question:  After Fresh Jobs Data, Where Do Markets Take Stocks, the 10-Year, and Gold?

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