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Real Time Insight

There were three noteworthy events from China over the weekend:

1) China reported mixed trade numbers.  August exports rose 7.2% y/y against an estimate of 5.5% y/y, while imports expanded 7.0% y/y compared to a forecast of 11.3% y/y.  of note, oil imports expanded 16.5% y/y and iron ore imports jumped 10.5% y/y.

2) China’s August CPI rose 2.6% y/y easing from 2.7% y/y in July and coming in below the trade estimate of 2.8% y/y.  Prices did rise 0.5% sequentially.  Closing prices fell 0.2% m/m, food prices increased 1.2% m/m, and residence increased 0.2% m/m.

3) Wire reports suggest that the Chinese government will allow banks to sell preferred shares.  This may help improve bank balance sheets and is a step up in capital market development.   

The Chinese iShares Large Cap ETF, FXI, is trading just below $38.00 this morning and has risen from a low of $31.35 in June.

RTI Questions:

1) On the scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the highest and 1being  the lowest, how much are signs of improved Chinese growth and equity market strength influencing your view of the U.S. equity market?  

2) Is the data from China enough to push the NASDAQ 100 cleanly over its recent highs just below 3150?


Let me know your thoughts below:

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