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Markets Turn Back On the Spigot

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Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Market indexes took a breather on Monday, but they’re right back into the green this Tuesday. With no economic data to pivot off of — this comes later in the week, starting with tomorrow’s ADP (ADP - Free Report) private-sector payroll report — the bulls continue to charge ahead on the promise of a Covid-free world at some point in 2021, perhaps as early as the next six months. Currently, the Dow of +330 points, the S&P is up 37 and the Nasdaq +110.

Markets have in their sights fresh all-time highs this morning. But stocks are not the only things booming — Bitcoin, which has doubled in value since mid-summer, is currently up 154% year to date, and this includes today’s 3.5% sell off in early trading. Bitcoin’s all-time high was in December 2017 at 19,140. At its trajectory of the past 10 weeks or so, we should see a new high put in sometime before Christmas.

Tesla’s (TSLA - Free Report) up another 5% this morning — it’s +611% year to date, making CEO Elon Musk the world’s second-richest person, behind Amazon’s (AMZN - Free Report) Jeff Bezos — on news that the S&P 500 will finally be adding the electric vehicle leader to its index. Despite its high market cap, the S&P 500 plans to add Tesla in one fell swoop, not in allotments. The add date — at which time more people than ever will own Tesla, based on how many investment portfolios contain the entire S&P 500 — is December 21st, an early Christmas present. There is no word yet on which company it will be replacing.

After today’s opening bell, Markit Manufacturing PMI for November will be coming out. Previously, this survey brought a 56.7 — the highest monthly read in the last five years. Shortly thereafter, ISM Manufacturing for November is expected to reach 58.0% — down from the previous month’s 59.3% read, but still an historically strong productivity rate. Finally, Construction Spending for October is expected to reach +1.0%, up from the +0.3% read in September. Again, signs of a robust economy helping underpin the bullish case for today’s equities market.

This week, jobs will be the big question. After ADP’s report is filed tomorrow morning, Thursday brings us weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. After this, Friday’s all-important Employment Situation report, along with a new Unemployment Rate, will come out. Currently, estimates are for 466K new jobs made last month, with an Unemployment Rate of 6.8%.

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