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Real Time Insight

So much for a government shut-down clobbering business confidence.

The Chicago PMI headline number this morning was a stunning 65.9, a one-month surge of 10.2 points, leaving most economists mystified since the consensus expectation was for a drop to 55.

The drivers of this optimism are robust too with the New Orders
component surging more than 15 points to 74.3 for the highest rate in 9 years. And Backlog Orders are suddenly at a 2 1/2-year high, up more than 14 points to 61.

The Production component came in at 71.1, also a 2.5 year high. And even Employment showed up with a 4 point move up to 57.7.

According to Bloomberg's analysis of the report...

"Inventories are steady and deliveries are only slowing slightly, both pointing to available capacity in the supply chain, capacity that may soon have to be tapped given the strength in orders."

This key manufacturing report for the Chicago economy certainly bodes well for upcoming national ISM readings.

The question I want to ask everyone is this...

Do you believe this is solid evidence of an economy building momentum that can register 3% GDP growth next year?

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