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Real Time Insight

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We got the Q4 GDP report this morn.   
 
Largely meeting expectations, real GDP increased +3.2% in annual terms in Q4. Beware, this is the "advance" estimate.  The "second" Q4 estimate arrives Feb. 28th.

In Q3, real GDP increased +4.1%.    
 
Positives: 
 
- Personal Consumption  (a very good thing for stocks), 
- Exports (a good thing), 
- Nonresidential fixed investment (healthy businesses), 
- Private inventory investment (stores stocking up), and 
- State and local government spending (telegraphs healthy sales taxes). 
 
Negatives: 
 
- Federal government spending (the sequester) and 
- Residential fixed investment (truly not a good thing).   
- Imports, which subtract in calculating GDP, increased (in sync with personal consumption). 
 
Deceleration from the +4.1 Q4 GDP number to a +3.2% Q3 number reflected a lower inventory number, lower federal gov't spending (the sequester), and lower home investing.  Big news, as far as I was concerned, was the Q3 uptick of +3.3% in consumption and +11.4% in exports. 
 
My RTI question:  Will U.S. GDP Numbers Stop the Stock Market Slide?
 

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