Let’s admit it folks. May taper talk and the backup in the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest
rate could be hitting U.S. jobs numbers. A six to eight month lag is typical for monetary
policy effects to show up.
Or should we take the story of the weather as the best answer?
This morn, we learned about another weak-ish non-farm jobs number. Total nonfarm
payroll employment increased by +113,000 in January. In 2013, U.S. employment
growth averaged +194,000 per month. The unemployment rate was little changed at
In January, job gains occurred in:
Construction +48K (-22k in Dec),
Professional/Business Svcs. +36K (+55K 2013 avg.)
Leisure/Hospitality +24K (+38K 2013 avg.)
Manufacturing +21K (+7K 2013 avg.)
Wholesale Trade, +14K
Mining +7K (+2K 2013 avg.)
Health Care 0 (+17K 2013 avg.)
Financial Activities 0
Federal Jobs -12K
The lack of job adds in services like Health Care, Information, Retail, and Financial
Activities is concerning. The only bounce back we can see was in Construction jobs
from December to January.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +241K
to +274K. The change for December was revised from +74K to +75K.
Let’s do the arithmetic: NOV + DEC + JAN = 274 + 75 + 113 = 462
462 / 3 = 154
The average of last year was +194K. We are shy +40K jobs a month now. That’s a
-20% loss from the +200K a month spot the U.S. economy needs to be in to call it
My RTI Question: Did the Fed Slow the U.S. Economy?