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Occidental (OXY) Up 2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Occidental Petroleum (OXY - Free Report) . Shares have added about 2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Occidental due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Occidental Q4 Loss Wider Than Expected, '21 Capex View Up

Occidental Petroleum Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2020 loss of 78 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 53 cents. The company incurred a loss of 53 cents per share in the prior-year quarter.

Total Revenues

Occidental's total revenues were $4,160 million, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,310 million by 3.5%. The top line also decreased 37.2% from the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline was due to lower contribution from Oil & Gas, and Midstream & Marketing segments.

Segment Details

Oil and Gas revenues for the quarter were $2,977 million, down 38.9% year over year.  Chemical revenues for the quarter were $988 million, up 1.4% year over year.  Midstream & Marketing revenues for the quarter were $410 million, down 67.1% year over year.

Production & Sales

Occidental’s total production volume for the fourth quarter was 1,143 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), which exceeded the midpoint of the guidance by 13 Mboe/d. The strong production volumes were attributed to higher volumes from the Permian Resources region. Permian Resources production for the fourth quarter was 382 Mboe/d, which exceeded the higher end of the guided range of 360-380 Mboe/d.

For the quarter under review, total sales volume was 1,185 Mboe/d, up 18.7% from 1,458 Mboe/d recorded in the year-ago period. The decline was due to drop in U.S. sales volumes.

Realized Prices

Fourth-quarter realized prices for crude oil decreased 28.1% year over year to $40.77 per barrel on a worldwide basis. Worldwide realized natural gas liquids prices decreased 17.5% from the prior-year quarter to $14.95 per barrel. Worldwide natural gas prices decreased 3.7% from the year-ago quarter to $1.55 per thousand cubic feet.

Highlights of the Release

Occidental, similar to other oil and gas companies, was adversely impacted by a steep decline in oil prices. Crude oil hedges provided some support to the company amid falling commodity prices.

It is aggressively managing cost and implementing ways to lower expenditure. Courtesy of cost management and strong production, domestic lease operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $6.05 per barrels of oil equivalents (boe) compared with $6.84 registered in the year-ago quarter.

The company exceeded the $2-billion non-core asset divestiture target for 2020 and finally sold assets worth $2.28 billion in 2020, which assisted it to lower debt level. Occidental reduced outstanding debt by $2.4 billion in 2020.

Interest expenses for the reported quarter were down 5.8% to $409 million from $434 million in the year-ago period. The decline was due to a reduction of its outstanding debts.

Financial Position

As of Dec 31, 2020, Occidental had cash and cash equivalents of $2,008 million compared with $3,032 million in the corresponding period of 2019.

As of Dec 31, 2020, the company had a long-term debt (net of current portion) of $35,745 million compared with $38,537 million in the comparable period of 2019. The decrease in debt level was due to effective management of debt since the acquisition of Anadarko.

For fourth-quarter 2020, cash from operations was $1,442 million, down from $2,346 million in the prior-year period. For fourth-quarter 2020, Occidental’s total capital expenditure was 614 million compared with $2,180 million invested in the year-ago period.

Guidance

Occidental expects first-quarter 2021 production in the range of 1,085-1,115 Mboe/d and Permian Resource production in the band of 450-460 Mboe/d. The company expects exploration expenses for the first quarter to be $35 million. Occidental expects 2021 production to be 1,140 Mboe/d and Permian Resource production to be 485 Mboe/d. The company expects exploration expenses for 2021 to be $210 million.

It expects to invest $2.9 billion in 2021 to further strengthen the existing operations compared with $2.53 billion invested in 2020. Out of the 2021 projected capital expenditure, $1.2 billion will be invested in the Permian region to bring new wells online.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 9.85% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Occidental has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Occidental has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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