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Why Is Itron (ITRI) Down 25.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Itron (ITRI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 25.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Itron due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Itron Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

Itron reported fourth-quarter 2020 non-GAAP earnings of 65 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 140.7%. Further, the figure improved 6.6% from the previous quarter.

However, the bottom line declined 9.7% from the year-ago quarter.

Revenues were $525.2 million, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $564.6 million. Further, the top line decreased 2.8% sequentially and 16% year over year.

Disruptions caused by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic in the demand environment were major concerns. Moreover, the weak performance of Device Solutions and Networked Solutions was a negative.

Notably, product revenues were $451.4 million (86% of total revenues), down 18.9% year over year. Service revenues totaled $73.8 million (14%), which increased 2.8% from the year-ago quarter.

The company’s bookings were $973 million and the backlog totaled $3.3 billion at the end of the reported quarter.

Segments in Detail

Device Solutions: The company generated revenues of $186.4 million (35.5% of total revenues) from the segment, down 10% from the year-ago quarter.

Networked Solutions: Revenues from the segment were $277.4 million (52.8% of total revenues), down 25% year over year.

Outcomes: The segment generated revenues of $61.3 million (11.7% of total revenues), up 14% on a year-over-year basis, owing to growing software license revenues.

Operating Details

For the fourth quarter, Itron’s gross margin was 28.3%, which expanded 10 basis points (bps) on a year-over-year basis. This was driven by high-margin software license revenues.

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $116.2 million, down 21.8% year over year. As a percentage of revenues, the figure contracted 150 bps year over year to 22.1%.

Further, non-GAAP operating margin was 8.3%, expanding 90 bps from the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flows

As of Dec 31, 2020, cash and cash equivalents totaled $206.9 million, down from $586.2 million as of Sep 30, 2020. Accounts receivables were $369.8 million, down from $386.9 million in the prior quarter.

Long-term debt at the end of the fourth quarter stood at $902.6 million compared with $1.31 billion at the end of the third quarter.

Itron generated $38.9 million of cash from operations in the fourth quarter compared with $45 million in the prior quarter.

Moreover, the company generated free cash flow of $29.03 million in the quarter under review compared with$38 million in the last reported quarter.

2021 Guidance

For 2021, the company expects revenues between $2.23 billion and $2.33 billion.

Further, non-GAAP earnings for 2021 are anticipated to be $2.15-$2.55 per share.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted -17.94% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Itron has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Itron has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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