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Real Time Insight


Consensus thought today’s employment situation report would be good.  It looked for +210K in non-farm jobs and a 6.6% unemployment rate.
 
Four big backstops behind pre-market bullishness were:
 
(1)   Better U.S. manufacturing PMIs in pretty much every region.
(2)   Better weather.
(3)   Better weekly unemployment claims in April versus March.
(4)   A nice +220K ADP jobs number on Wednesday.

What did we get?  A blowout!  The U.S. economy delivered +288K jobs and a 6.3% unemployment rate in April 2014.
 
That’s the lowest unemployment rate since that fateful September 2008 time when the financial crisis went front and center.

Employment gains were revised up by +36K in Feb and March too.  After this report’s data, +203K new jobs were created in March, up from a preliminary +192K. February's gain was revised to +222K from +197K.
 
In the four months of 2014 to date, the economy has gained an average of +214K jobs a month, well ahead of the 2013 pace of +194K.
 
My RTI:  Does a Jobs Blowout Change the Fed Taper Timeline?

 

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