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Analyst Blog  

U.S. Market Weighs on Paccar

June 17, 2008 | Comments: 0
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Paccar, Inc. (PCAR - Analyst Report)  is benefiting from rising prices and increasing market share, along with strong growth in Mexico and Australia. However, a strong Class 8 market downturn in the U.S. leads us to rate the stock a Hold, with a target of $55.00. This is 16.2x our 2008 earnings estimate.

The company’s base business in the U.S. and Europe is improving, aside from cyclical effects. Average transaction prices are rising about 5% in both North America and Europe due to the increased emission content.

Paccar continues to increase its market share in the U.S. and Canadian Class 8 retail sales. Truck demand in Europe and international markets is strong. On the other hand, Paccar has leading share in both Mexico and Australia, both of which are seeing a surge in demand ahead of 2008 emissions deadlines.

Over the past three years, Paccar also invested $978 million to repurchase 27.4 million shares and paid over $1.7 billion in dividends to the shareholders for a total return of over $2.7 billion. Recently, the company paid an extra cash dividend of $1 per share. Currently, the stock is valued at 15.7x our 2008 earnings of $3.40.

However, a decline in the company’s commercial truck unit sales, an increase in residual value risk due to lower used-truck pricing, and increased funding costs are factors which may negatively affect the company’s financial services operations.

Read the full analyst report on PCAR


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