Agco Outperforms in N. America

Agco Corp. (AG) reported second quarter EPS of $1.34, above our estimate at $0.90, due to a smaller-than-expected loss in North America and continued robust growth in South America and the EMEA [Europe, Middle East and Asia] region. The sales growth was broad-based, with every geographic region posting a double-digit sales increase.

The growth in commercial farm income and acreage is driving demand for high-horsepower tractors. While North America reported a loss, we expect a second-half profit recovery on the back of favorable currency translation, higher margins and double-digit sales growth. Our target price is $63.50, or 16.4x our FY08 EPS estimate.

We were extremely pleased by the narrower loss in North America. AG reported a loss of $1.3 million, which was better than our expectations of -$11.8 million, and better than the year-ago level of -$14.8 million. Strong sales growth of 36% and improved margins offset adverse currency impacts on products sourced from Brazil and Europe.

Sales to the commercial farmer continue to offset slower retail sales of tractor and combines. We expect professional farming sales to remain strong amid record income. With a stronger U.S dollar, double-digit revenue growth, and margin expansion on professional farm equipment sales, the NA region should return to profitability by the third quarter of FY08.

AG expects FY08 net sales to increase in a range of 26-28% on account of continued, positive market conditions in South America and Eastern Europe and higher product pricing. The management is targeting FY08 EPS to be in the range of $3.60-$3.70. Free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $175 million to $200 million.

Read the full analyst report on AG

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