Anthracite Down to Fair Value

Anthracite Capital’s (AHR - Snapshot Report) is a real estate finance company that operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT).

Operating earnings for 2Q08 were $0.23 per share, down from $0.36 per share in 2Q07, primarily due to the increase in loss assumptions on CMBS investments, and one-time loss reserve for a loan in Carbon II.

AHR is trading at 4.5x our 2008 estimated OEPS and 4.7x estimated EPS. On an EPS basis, the company is valued at a 17% premium to sector averages. Shares are off 38% over the past three months, due to a general sector decline and current liquidity problems in commercial and residential real estate.

The good news is that AHR has limited exposure to residential loans, and commercial real estate fundamentals are holding up for now. Due to recent equity sales, the company has the liquidity to pay its current dividend, get through the current market turmoil, and remain solvent. The company still has exposure to margin calls which entails risk should CMBS asset values continue to fall.

Commercial real estate values are falling, and we expect more write downs and delinquent loans in the coming quarters. As such, we would not be a buyer, even at the discounted price. Hold the shares for the yield, although the current payout is probably unsustainable so expect a dividend cut before the end of the year.

Read the full analyst report on AHR