Hibbett Headwinds Too Heavy

Hibbett Sports, Inc. (HIBB - Analyst Report) operates sporting goods stores that are around 5,000 square feet in small to mid-sized markets in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. The company's stores offer athletic equipment, footwear, and apparel.

Hibbett's third quarter earnings per share were $0.01 below consensus estimates, but the company raised its full-year EPS guidance from $0.93-$1.03 to $0.97-$1.04. Hibbett's have held up reasonably well this year, despite the challenging retail environment. The company's results have been boosted by the company's continued store expansion, share buybacks and easy comparables in fiscal 2008.

Looking ahead to next year, the company should open another 60-70 stores, but it will not be buying back shares, and comps from fiscal 2009 are much better than last year. That means EPS growth will have to come from stronger sales trends and/or higher profit margins. We don't see either of those occurring in this difficult retail environment.

We reiterate our Sell rating on Hibbett Sports. Our six-month target price is $9.50, or 10x our fiscal 2010 EPS estimate.

Read the full analyst report on HIBB.