Airbus' 2008 Report Card

Airbus recently released information on how it did during 2008. Its net orders totaled 777 shipsets, consisting of 472 of the A318 through A321 series, 301 of the A330/A340/A350 cluster and 9 A380s, offset by cancellation of 5 A310s. Its deliveries totaled 483 shipsets, consisting of 386 of the A318 through A321 series, 85 of the A330/A340 cluster and 12 A380s. Its backlog at the end of 2008 was 3,715 shipsets, consisting of 2,598 of the A318 through A321 series, 932 of the A330/A340/A350 cluster and 185 A380s.

If Airbus was to continue delivering aircraft at the same rate it did in 2008 (i.e., 483 shipsets), it would take almost 7.7 years to work through the current backlog.

We reported on Boeing’s (BA - Analyst Report) condition previously; to summarize its position, it booked 662 net orders and delivered 375 shipsets during 2008. With respect to backlog, Boeing will only reply that it stands at more than 3,700 (Boeing’s next conference call is on Wednesday, 28 January 2009 at 7:30 a.m. PST, and perhaps it will be more specific then). Even so, if we use the 3,700 number, it would take Boeing over 9.8 years to deliver all the aircraft currently in backlog, if deliveries remained at the 2008 level.

Why consider how long it would take to deliver the present backlog?  Because the suppliers indicate that the current outlook for commercial aircraft is -- flat. Of course, there is no guarantee that it will stay that way -- and there have been rumbles about cutbacks to the production rates of some of the better-selling models -- but it does not look like commercial aerospace is about to fall of a cliff either, like some of the stocks did.

For the stout of heart, Zacks has Buy recommendations on four stocks in this category: AAR (AAR), Ladish (LDSH), Moog (MOG.A - Snapshot Report) and Triumph Group (TGI - Analyst Report).

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Read the full analyst report on AAR

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