Jan 30: GDP Fell 3.8%, Less than 5.3% Expected

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, of the U.S. Department of Commerce, released the Advanced Gross Domestic Product Report for the 4^th Quarter. Of 2008.  Real GDP is estimated to have decreased at an annual rate of 3.8%, less than the 5.3% expectation, following a decrease of 0.5% in the third quarter, a 2.8% growth rate in the second quarter, and a 0.9% growth rate in the first quarter of 2008.  This decline is the largest since the first quarter of 1982.  Negative contributions to GDP were personal consumption expenditures (-3.5% change) which has been roughly 70% of GDP, along with exports (-19.7% change). While positive contributions were imports (-15.7% change - subtracted from GDP), and government spending (+5.8% change) made positive contributions to GDP.  The GDP Deflator, the broadest measure of inflation, decreased by 0.1% in the 4^th quarter as energy prices continued to fall, following an increase of 3.9% in the 3rd quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1% in the 2^nd.  The decline in international trade further exemplifies the global impact the lingering recession in the U.S. has made.  The estimates provided in this report are based on incomplete data and are subject to change.  The preliminary 4^th quarter GDP report will be available on February 27^th, and the final report on March 26^th, at 8:30 AM EST. 

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