Feb 19: Leading Indicators Up 0.4%

The Conference Boards’ Leading Indicators Index increased by 0.4% in December to 99.5 (2004=100), following an increase of 0.2% in December, and decrease 0.4% in November. Positive contributions to the index were the real money supply, the interest rate spread, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials. The negative contributions to the index were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), building permits, average weekly manufacturing hours, stock prices, and the index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance)..

The Coincident Indicators decreased 0.5% to 103.3 (2004=100) following a 0.3% decrease in November and a 0.3% increase in October. The positive contributor to the index were personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales, while industrial production and employees on nonagricultural payrolls. all made negative contributions to the index.

The Lagging Indicators decreased 0.1% to 113.9. The ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income made an advancement to the index while average prime rate charged by banks, change in labor cost per unit of output, commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and average duration of unemployment (inverted) provided negative contributions to the lagging index. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales and change in CPI for services did not exhibit change in January.

Upcoming Releases
Consumer Price Index (02/20 at 8:30 AM EST)
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices (02/24 at 9:00 AM EST)
Existing Home Sales (02/25 at 10:00 AM EST)