Sell Freddie Mac Down to 25 Cents

Freddie Mac's (FRE) 3Q08 net loss came in at $19.44 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $2.07 per diluted share in the prior-year quarter. Though recently the Government laid out an expanded role for the GSEs in the housing market as part of its Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, we anticipate the price volatility to continue as the market looks for further information on the future structure of the GSEs and their role.

Further, as the housing situation continues to worsen, we anticipate higher losses and write-offs. As a result, the conservatorship is expected to continue for a long time and this will yield no value to the common shareholders of the company.

Ahead of 4Q08 financial results, based on our concerns, we are maintaining our Sell recommendation on the shares of FRE. Ahead of the 4Q08 earnings release, given the continued weakness in the housing markets, we are increasing our loss estimate for FY08 to $39.50 per share and for FY09 to $13.12 per share. We are also installing our FY10 loss estimate at $9.81 per share.

Kalyan Nandy contributed to this report.

Read the full analyst report on FRE