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Why We Expect Tesla (TSLA) to Deliver Q4 Earnings Beat
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Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 26, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.02 per share and $15.93 billion, respectively.
The electric vehicle (EV) king surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-expected automotive gross profit. The top and bottom lines witnessed massive year-over-year growth of 56.8% and 144.7%, respectively. Importantly, third-quarter 2021 gross margin — excluding credits — came in at +28.8%, at or near an all-time record high.
Over the trailing four quarters, Tesla beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on another, with the average surprise being 25.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved north by 4 cents in the past seven days. The bottom-line estimate implies a year-over-year surge of 152.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 48.3%.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +6.30%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.15 per share is pegged 13 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Courtesy of preference for personal mobility and the soaring popularity of green vehicles, demand for Tesla cars has been on the rise. Consequently, Tesla delivered 308,600 units in fourth-quarter 2021, surging 71% from the fourth quarter of 2020. Deliveries also breezed past its previous high of 241,300 in third-quarter 2021. In fact, fourth-quarter 2021 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of record deliveries by the world's most valuable automaker.
Increasing demand for Models 3 and Y, which form a major chunk of the automaker’s overall deliveries, can be attributed to Tesla's robust vehicle sales during the quarter. For the quarter in discussion, the Model 3/Y division registered deliveries of 296,850 vehicles, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 265,792 units. The reported figure is way higher than the delivery of 161,701 units of Model 3/Y during the corresponding quarter last year and 232,102 units delivered in the prior quarter. Resultantly, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for automotive revenues for the quarter under discussion is pegged at $13,728 million, calling for a year-over-year jump of 47.5%.
Solar and storage deployments are also expected to have witnessed exponential growth during the quarter, aided by the company’s Solar Roof and Powerwall products. The consensus mark for energy generation and storage revenues is pegged at $828 million, suggesting an increase from the year-ago level of $752 million. The same for revenues from Automotive Leasing & Services and Others is pegged at $376 million and $981 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 34.2% and 44.7%, respectively.
Thus, robust demand for Model 3/Y and stellar performance of the solar arm are likely to have fueled Tesla’s earnings in the to-be-reported quarter.
Other Stocks With Favorable Combination
Here are some other auto giants, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the quarter to be reported:
General Motors (GM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.02% and a Zacks Rank #2. The stock is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Feb 1.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Motors’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.04 per share and $29.35 billion, respectively. Encouragingly, GM surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average of 46.5%.
Ford (F - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. The stock is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Jan 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 38 cents per share and $35.96 billion, respectively. Encouragingly, F surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average of 335.6%.
Image: Bigstock
Why We Expect Tesla (TSLA) to Deliver Q4 Earnings Beat
Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 results on Jan 26, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.02 per share and $15.93 billion, respectively.
The electric vehicle (EV) king surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in the last reported quarter on higher-than-expected automotive gross profit. The top and bottom lines witnessed massive year-over-year growth of 56.8% and 144.7%, respectively. Importantly, third-quarter 2021 gross margin — excluding credits — came in at +28.8%, at or near an all-time record high.
Over the trailing four quarters, Tesla beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on another, with the average surprise being 25.4%. This is depicted in the graph below:
Tesla, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Estimate Revisions
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share has moved north by 4 cents in the past seven days. The bottom-line estimate implies a year-over-year surge of 152.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year rise of 48.3%.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Tesla this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Earnings ESP: Tesla has an Earnings ESP of +6.30%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.15 per share is pegged 13 cents higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Tesla currently sports a Zacks Rank of 1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors at Play
Courtesy of preference for personal mobility and the soaring popularity of green vehicles, demand for Tesla cars has been on the rise. Consequently, Tesla delivered 308,600 units in fourth-quarter 2021, surging 71% from the fourth quarter of 2020. Deliveries also breezed past its previous high of 241,300 in third-quarter 2021. In fact, fourth-quarter 2021 marked the sixth consecutive quarter of record deliveries by the world's most valuable automaker.
Increasing demand for Models 3 and Y, which form a major chunk of the automaker’s overall deliveries, can be attributed to Tesla's robust vehicle sales during the quarter. For the quarter in discussion, the Model 3/Y division registered deliveries of 296,850 vehicles, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 265,792 units. The reported figure is way higher than the delivery of 161,701 units of Model 3/Y during the corresponding quarter last year and 232,102 units delivered in the prior quarter. Resultantly, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for automotive revenues for the quarter under discussion is pegged at $13,728 million, calling for a year-over-year jump of 47.5%.
Solar and storage deployments are also expected to have witnessed exponential growth during the quarter, aided by the company’s Solar Roof and Powerwall products. The consensus mark for energy generation and storage revenues is pegged at $828 million, suggesting an increase from the year-ago level of $752 million. The same for revenues from Automotive Leasing & Services and Others is pegged at $376 million and $981 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 34.2% and 44.7%, respectively.
Thus, robust demand for Model 3/Y and stellar performance of the solar arm are likely to have fueled Tesla’s earnings in the to-be-reported quarter.
Other Stocks With Favorable Combination
Here are some other auto giants, which, according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat for the quarter to be reported:
General Motors (GM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.02% and a Zacks Rank #2. The stock is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Feb 1.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for General Motors’ to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $1.04 per share and $29.35 billion, respectively. Encouragingly, GM surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average of 46.5%.
Ford (F - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +8.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. The stock is set to report fourth-quarter 2021 earnings on Jan 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ford’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 38 cents per share and $35.96 billion, respectively. Encouragingly, F surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average of 335.6%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.