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New York Times (NYT) Up 9.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for New York Times Co. (NYT - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.8% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is New York Times due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

NY Times Q3 Earnings Top, Digital Subscriptions Rise Y/Y

The New York Times Company delivered third-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings from continuing operations of 21 cents a share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 15 cents but declined 8.7% from the prior-year reported figure. Total revenues of $547.7 million came marginally ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $547.1 million and improved 7.6% year over year.

Subscription revenues rose during the quarter due to continued progress in bundle offerings. While digital advertising revenues increased, print advertising revenues showcased a decline from the year-ago period. The New York Times Company is gradually heading toward its goal of 15 million subscribers by the end of 2027.

Subscription Revenues Rise

Subscription revenues of $382.7 million grew 11.7% year over year. The upside was primarily due to an increase in the number of subscribers to the company’s digital-only products, the benefits of subscriptions graduating to higher prices from introductory promotional pricing and the inclusion of subscription revenues from The Athletic.

Subscription revenues from digital-only products jumped 22.8% to $243.9 million. However, print subscription revenues fell 3.6% to $138.8 million due to lower domestic home delivery revenues that declined 3.3%.

The company ended the quarter with roughly 9.33 million paid subscribers, with about 10.75 million paid subscriptions across its print and digital products. Of the 9.33 million subscribers, approximately 8.59 million were paid digital-only subscribers, with roughly 10.02 million paid digital-only subscriptions. There was a net increase of 180,000 digital-only subscribers and 210,000 digital-only subscriptions compared with the preceding quarter.

Management envisions total fourth-quarter subscription revenues to increase about 17-20%, with digital-only subscription revenues anticipated to surge approximately 30-33%.

A Look at Advertising Revenues

Total advertising revenues of $110.5 million witnessed a marginal decline of 0.4% from the prior-year period.

Print advertising revenues declined 8.5% to $40.2 million in the quarter under review. The metric decreased mainly in the advocacy and media categories and was hurt by macroeconomic factors.

Meanwhile, digital advertising revenues advanced 4.9% to $70.3 million. This year-over-year increase was due to higher direct-sold advertising at The New York Times Group and the addition of advertising revenues from The Athletic, which helped mitigate lower revenues from fewer programmatic advertising impressions and pressure from the macroeconomic environment.

For the fourth quarter, The New York Times Company expects both digital advertising revenues and total advertising revenues to decline in the mid-single digits.

Other Highlights

We note that other revenues fell 1.9% year over year to $54.5 million during the quarter under review as a result of lower licensing revenues, partly offset by higher Wirecutter affiliate and live event revenues. For the final quarter, The New York Times Company anticipates a low-single-digit increase in other revenues.

Adjusted operating costs rose 7.8% to $478.7 million during the quarter. Management anticipates adjusted operating costs to increase approximately 7-9% in the fourth quarter.

The total adjusted operating profit increased 6% to $69 million during the quarter under review as higher digital subscription revenues at The New York Times Group segment more than offset operating losses at The Athletic.

Meredith Kopit Levien, the president and CEO, said, “With three quarters of the year behind us, we are improving our outlook for full-year 2022 results and expect adjusted operating profit between $320 and $330 million, even with the dilution from our acquisition of The Athletic, which is on the high-end of the full year guidance range we provided in February.”

Segment Details

The New York Times Group revenues increased 2.8% year over year to $523.6 million. Subscription revenues rose 5.4% to $361 million due to growth in subscription revenues from digital-only products. Advertising revenues fell 2.5% to $108.1 million, stemming from soft print advertising revenues.

The adjusted operating profit jumped 20.7% to $78.6 million. This can be attributed to higher digital-only subscription revenues.

Revenues totaled $24.1 million in The Athletic segment, primarily from subscription revenues. The adjusted operating loss amounted to $9.6 million.

Management expects fourth-quarter total subscription revenues to increase 10-13% at The New York Times Group and foresees a 6-8 percentage point contribution from The Athletic to consolidated results. It expects digital-only subscription revenues to increase about 20% at The New York Times Group and envisions a 10-13 percentage point contribution from The Athletic to consolidated results.

The New York Times Company expects both digital advertising revenues and total advertising revenues to decline 10% at The New York Times Group.

Financial Aspects

The New York Times Company ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of about $468.6 million, reflecting a decrease of $605.8 million from $1.07 billion as of Dec 26, 2021. Approximately $550 million was utilized to fund the buyout of The Athletic in February 2022.

The company incurred capital expenditures of about $9 million during the quarter. Management envisions capital expenditures of about $50 million in 2022.

The board of directors authorized a $150 million share repurchase program in February 2022. As of Oct 28, 2022, the company repurchased 2,778,380 shares for about $93.1 million and $56.9 remained under the authorization.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, New York Times has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

New York Times has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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