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Vail Resorts (MTN) to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter fiscal 2023 results on Dec 8 after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 7.2%.

How are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the fiscal first-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of $3.17 per share. The metric indicates an improvement of 7.9% from a loss of $3.44 reported in the year-ago quarter.

Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Vail Resorts, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Vail Resorts, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Vail Resorts, Inc. Quote

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $246.1 million. The metric suggests an increase of 40.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let's take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Vail Resorts’ first-quarter fiscal 2023 performance is likely to have witnessed solid contributions from the 2022-2023 North American ski season. During the previous quarter’s earnings call, the company reported solid pass product sales (through Sep 23, 2022), thereby demonstrating strong demand from guest visitation.

Season to date (through Sep 23, 2022), Vail Resorts stated that Pass product sales increased approximately 6% in units and approximately 7% in sales dollars compared with the prior-year period’s (through Sep 24, 2021) levels. The company reported strong unit growth with respect to its renewing pass holders in destination markets.

Also, MTN stated the benefits of a 7.5% price increase (relative to the 2021/2022 season). Given the strong trade-up results coupled with minimal degradation (relative to spring pass sales), the company expects the December 2022 growth rates to be relatively consistent with the September 2022 growth rates.

An increased focus on acquisitions (such as Andermatt-Sedrun and the Seven Springs Resorts), the advance commitment pass program and capacity-expanding investments are likely to have aided the company’s performance in the fiscal first quarter.

However, staffing challenges in the company’s ancillary businesses and pandemic-induced operational restrictions in dining might have affected the company’s operations in the fiscal first quarter.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Vail Resorts this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Vail Resorts has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.36% and a Zacks Rank of 2. Shares of Hyatt have increased 14.1% in the past year. H’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark thrice in the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 652.3%.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.35% and a Zacks Rank #3. Shares of Choice Hotels have declined 19.8% in the past year. CHH’s earnings surpassed estimates twice in the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 4.9%.

Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.86% and a Zacks Rank #3. Shares of Planet Fitness have declined 10.1% in the past year. PLNT’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark in all the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.6%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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